Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, May 31, 2016.
first. I lolled at the title....nice work.
Going pretty heavy on Cote, a former LHW contender fighting a former LW.
I know nothing of the odds except for the main and co-main but im leaning on Rory, Cote, Barncat, OAM dec.
well i wouldn't go that far.. he was only LHW on short notice vs tito, he is a career 185'er who went to 170.. i do think he's heavier than cowboy, but not that much
Really like the o2.5 on the cowboy vs Cote fight. Gonna be a barnburner w scary moments, but I don't see either guy finishing the other.
I'm heavy on the Red King/Ares/Waterboy/Canadian Psycho at 1.95. I think he is too smart and too good on closing the distance to let Thompson work his kicking game. The only question is how much damage he took vs Lawler...
I'm also on Cote at 2.40, I think it will be a much closer fight than the odds show.
Only on Cote and Cote R1 (+800 to fade Cowboy's slow starts) so far. Will prob add Cote DEC, too especially since it's in Canada
agreed with most of the above 3 posts ^
I took Wonderboy @ +130 for £795 and i am very confident. I am really concerned with the damage Rory took against Lawler and how he might be even more apprehensive due to his nose. Rory is not going to win a kickboxing match and i don't think he can get Wonderboy down.
Hard decision. I wanted bet on Rory but when I remind his last fight and the all demage he took from Robbie...
I guess Firas and all Tristar do everything to beat Wonderboy and copy his style. Thompson used to train in Tristar with GSP so they may know how to beat him. But it's still hard decision.
He's probably had enough time since the lawler fight,i think
I know it can be a loss if it turns out Rory took too much damage from that fight and is battle worn, but I wouldn't base a bet on that. Besides the Condit fight its the only real damage hes ever taken, and putting money down on WB based off a hypothetical you think could be true doesn't seem like a good idea. Its a big question, but one we most definitely don't have a surefire answer to, so no point trying to find an answer before this goes down.
It's not my main reason. My main reason is he will not win a kickboxing match against WB and I question if he can take him down. Add on top of that the beating he took and what is surely going to be some hesitancy after what happened to his nose and i love WB at dog odds here.
Tri Star is a WW shark tank. Rory spars with Breese on the reg so should have well enough experience to catch a long leg & get this down to the ground where his top control/jits should dominate WB. Worth noting he had success with this in an earlier fight against Condit.
WB is a dangerous fighter but Rory has a solid enough pedigree of being able to control elite, one dimensional fighters.
Breese is nothing like WB. Breese is all hands. Tristar flew Venom Page in for one week to give them someone similar to WB. Catching WB's kicks is going to prove very difficult as he doesn't throw your traditional round house kicks that are easier to catch. Rory has never faced someone on WB's level striking wise. What makes WB so dangerous and difficult to face is how awkward and unpredictable his style is - it's very difficult to prepare for.
Im kinda sorry they have to fight tho since they like each other and i woudldn´t want anyone of them to lose. hard to pray for a guy to lose when you want him to win but your bets says differently.
How much research did you do before that bet? He might definitely be too much for Rory and does seem like the stronger of the two with his fighting style, yet Rory seems really pumped to win this to get better contracts. Did you ressearch it alot? Also if i may ask, how come you put 795, why not £800 to get a round number?
Great job by being out so early though, Wonderboy will probably be a heavier fav the closer we get dont you think?
Edit: Thanks for sharing all your bets btw, gotta love those huge numebr you put into it and you sharing your bets, you seem very skilled. Thats why i asked about the research aswell.
Great insight, tks for sharing.
Agree with all that. The key to this fight is definitely WB's TDD.
Really looking forward to this fight. Amazing match up. I lean more towards thinking Rory has slightly better odds of getting WB down to the mat than WB has of landing the killshot i think he needs to win here.
BOL with your bet. I'm prolly giving this fight the swerve.
I'm on Wonderboy here, got him at +110 and itd at +175.
"Next level" is such and overused phrase, but to me Wonderboy is one of the few guys who actually fit the bill (when it comes to striking). He's legit world class and as was mentioned is hard to prepare for (even though Rory trained with him a bit) because he is purposefully unpredictable. When it comes to striking, he really does have it all. Deadly power in his hands and kicks WITHOUT having to load up (which is just such a big thing--plenty of guys have power but the guys who have it without needing to load up at all are so much more dangerous), crazy accuracy, fluidity, and he gauges distance incredibly well. Given his kickboxing background not a surprise, but he's easily among the best at it.
Of course the question is his grappling. Could we see a repeat of what Matt Brown did to him? I tend to think not, even though Rory is better with takedowns and top control than Brown. Wonderboy looks like a guy who came in as an elite striker but far from a well rounded fighter and who's had to figure the rest out on the fly. But now he's had a few years and his natural ability has allowed him to round out his game. It's somewhat speculative sure, but it's hard to imagine him not putting in the work and making big leaps in his grappling game. He's obviously a pretty bright guy who knows what he needs to do. He also seems driven enough to do it.
I don't know if Rory will still be affected by having his face blown up by Robbie or not. Psychologically it's possible I guess. Those type of prolonged beatings are pretty rare in MMA and the way it ended with his nose being just shattered...could have lasting effects. But I like WB regardless. A 5 round fight and to me that's just too long to think he won't catch Rory at some point and put him away.
Posted it before but (as much as I hate to say it since Cowboy has become one of my favorite guys to watch) I think the play is absolutely Cote by dec. at +298. Cowboy is a slow starter and often gives away rd 1. It's only a 3 round fight. Both guys can take a shot just fine, and Cote has come such a long way from his days when he was lost on the mat. The way he controlled Killa B on the ground was super impressive. Cote is a legit grappler now. We know Cowboy is.
I think this fight will be very competitive, with both guys having their moments. But given Cowboy's propensity to start slow and the fact that Cote has very good boxing and should be able to land some punches throughout, I think all of the value is on Cote by dec. Hard to see either guy stopping the other and I like Cote as the naturally bigger guy to get the W.
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