Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, May 31, 2016.
Hope Thomson wins, but if I had to bet I think I'd go for MacDonald
disagree with this line of thinking. your bet size on any fight really shouldnt be determined whether your up or down in a given night.
either you love the bet and keep the risk or hedge out some, but dont make your decision based on the outcomes of other fights.
Rory is the second best WW. Stylistically he matches up well with every fighter. Don't see him losing
People making the bookies pay for those beautiful prices on the FLW overs. Should've went a bit harder on those.
please don't be tempted by the nice odds on o'connell man, he's going to die.
I haven't seen anyone who could actually use effective cage cutting against WB. Heck Hendricks just walked him down like an amateur. I like Rory at 100.
think i've just ruined the line on val for every uk bettor.
haha I was actually wrong, shes back down to -160 on 5d. Will be interesting to see the movement on that up til the fight.
And I disagree w that, especially in a fight that is practically 50/50. No one in this thread has a really strong lean towards one side. if I'm up 10 units and I have a pending parlay for 5u, I'm more inclined to let it ride than if I'm down 10u. Maybe I'm a bit more conservative than most of you but I've never once regretted doing that
I think Wonderboy finishes Rory, I really do. I bet Thompson at opens so got him at +115. I also have him itd at +210.
The term "next level" gets thrown around a lot, most of the time it's garbage. But Wonderboy really is a "next level" striker, at least offensively. If he has any weakness at all striking it's that maybe he's a little overconfident in just how good he is and gets a little lazy and gets hit because of it (realistically Ellenburger should not have been able to touch him at all). That said, offensively he's elite, maybe the best striker in MMA.
And because he uses distance so well, telegraphed shots aren't gonna get to him very easily. Yeah really good grapplers (which Rory is) should be able to get him to the mat IF they can navigate the distance. But that's a tall task and over 5 rounds avoiding his pinpoint and powerful striking I think will be too much for Rory.
Wonderboy TKO in the 2nd or 3rd round.
I think it's Wonderboy. Rory tends to take a lot of punishment and if he does against Wonderboy, he'll wake up wondering what country he's in.
You can find Rory for better odds if your a European bettor. Rory at + odds. Fight is razor thin tbh and probably the most interesting match up of the year.
1.6u UFC Fighting 2202 Jason Saggo -160*vs Leandro Silva
1u UFC Fighting 1701 Joe Soto -110* vs Chris Beal
1u UFC Fighting 1201 Sean O'Connell +120*vs Steve Bosse
2u UFC Fighting 1902 Randa Markos -180*vs Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
Is anyone in here on Jojo over Val?
Val now -140 and i'm gonna wait to add in hopes that drops even more, but i'm not seeing how Jojo wins. Her one area she would seemingly have the advantage is the clinch, but I think Val is physical enough in there to either negate getting hurt, go for takedowns, or break out and box. I don't see Jojo holding the clinch and doing damage at all, Val isn't a dumb fighter. And where else can Jojo win? I don't see any other areas.
Wonderboy will destroy Rory
This is as close to a 50/50 fight as you are going to get. Take the plus odds.
Why would you feel confident that it'll hit the scorecards? A fade on OAM? Do you feel he's overrated? Cuz I think he'll get the tap more often than not.
Steve Bosse hits hard, and Sean O’Connell has been knocked out a couple times in the UFC, but I think O’Connell is going to be able to give Bosse a lot of trouble in this fight. As long as he doesn’t get clipped in the very early going, I see his pace and work inside wearing Bosse down allowing for a late finish. As a dog, I’m tempted, but this fight seems destined to end in a TKO, so I may hold out for some props.
Thibault Gouti was rocked, got his back taken, and was choked out in less than 30 seconds in his UFC debut. Olivier Aubin-Mercier likely won’t rock him on the feet, as that’s still a work in progress, but his ability to get takedowns and secure back control is some of the best in MMA. I would be surprised if these 15 minutes go by without the Canadian securing Gouti’s back. He may not scored a finish, but I think Aubin-Mercier gets back on track here comfortably.
I’ve thought Joanne Calderwood has been overrated for nearly her entire UFC tenure, and she hasn’t done much to assuage those feelings. Still, despite this being the toughest fight she’s had in the Octagon, I have a sneaking suspicion that she pulls this one off. Not with her striking, but with takedowns and top control. It will be close, and the judges will be a concern that keep me from betting it right now, but I think she finally puts a good performance together.
Activity (or lack thereof) is something I’ve really started to bet on (or against) of late. This is another case where I think that angle presents value — the first of two on this card. Leandro Silva is the better striker, but doesn’t pull the trigger. Wrestling is probably slightly in Saggo’s favor, and he’s a very solid top position grappler. Even if Saggo struggles to get top position and this remains on the feet, I think him being aggressive and throwing more than Silva will earn him a decision. I’m tempted at the opener, but the public seems to continually undervalue him, so I’ll take my chances and wait.
One of these days, Misha Cirkunov is going to not get a finish early, gas, and get knocked out. It’s somewhat unlikely, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it was this fight, as Cutelaba seems like the type of fighter who won’t go away easily, and has shown himself capable of scrambling back to his feet in the past. Again, I’m going to rely on the public though, as the hype on Cirkunov will probably push this line up, and I don’t want to take the shot unless Cutelaba hits at least +300.
Every Krzysztof Jotko fight is a sweat regardless of which side you bet, and that’s why I’m going to pass on betting this one, even though I favor Jotko slightly to finish the job that Josh Samman started. Jotko getting finished by a similar lanky fighter in Magnus Cedenblad as looms large in my decision to pass this fight.
Chris Beal has been a constant underperformer in the UFC. Even though he’s catching a fighter who seems to be on a decline with a fading chin in Joe Soto, I think that trend continues. Beal might land early and put Soto away, but if this fight lasts any decent amount of time, I expect Soto to finally utilize his wrestling a bit in the UFC and wear Beal down. The price is oddly low given their relative levels of competition, but it is hard to trust Soto right now.
The second “activity” fight is Elias Theodorou vs. Sam Alvey. Alvey’s path to victory in every fight is the same, land one punch that changes everything. I don’t think he’ll be able to do that against Theodorou who will be constantly throwing strikes and attempting takedowns (even if Alvey is able to fend the majority of them off). I just see this as one fighter controlling the entire 15 minutes, and I think Theodorou is going to be too difficult to stop.
If Randa Markos was better in the third round, she would be a contender in a strawweight division that desperately needs more of them. Unfortunately, she’s not, and that means betting her is almost contingent on thinking she wins the first two rounds. She probably does that against Lybarger, but if she has a couple of lazy moments in top control she could lose position, or I could see this being tight enough on the feet to go either way early. If anything, I’ll look at taking a shot on Lybarger if this climbs up near +200.
Facing a tough wrestler in your short notice UFC debut as a fighter who rarely goes out of the first round sounds like a recipe for disaster, and that’s the spot that Jonathan Meunier is in. I don’t like his chances much against Colby Covington based on what I’ve seen on tape, but perhaps Meunier’s massive size for a welterweight can help him stonewall some of Covington’s takedown attempts.
I expect a lot of bettors to be on Geane Herrera in this fight, and I hope that’s the case, because I think Ali Bagautinov outwrestles him as thoroughly as Ray Borg did, if not worse. Herrera is definitely a talent to watch out for moving forward, but the UFC hasn’t done him any favors with his early booking in the Octagon.
I think people are under estimating the OAM hug big time. Gouti is aggressive, but coming off a loss I think OAM goes full on 'Tony Sims strategy' and i'm not convinced he finishes Gouti.
Only reason I didn't go crazy on that line is cause I have only seen maybe 3 Gouti fights including his 20 second loss to Teemu, and i'll probably put OAM dec in round robin
I dont like betting on WMMA unless its the over/unders, Cyborg, Joanna or Rousey (except for the holm fight) but Valerie should smOKE Calderwood. I have never been to impressed with Jojo and I think she is over matched. If I get Valeria for -150, Imma smash that. Mccrory is another strong lean for me aswell as Cirkunov ITD. OAM's line seems to be too juiced atm and not touching that unless the OAM dec line is good.
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