UFN 89 - Wonderboy vs Waterboy - 6/18 - Ontario

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I said the grappling "edge" because he is larger meaning I think that Cerrone will not be taking him down at will to use his ground skills. This is my own opinion and trust me 10 lbs of weight difference is a huge difference when grappling. Cote surely respects Cerrone's ground game . Saunders is better than Cerrone on the ground and Cote didn't have too much a problem with him. Doubt he even takes him down once. Cote dictates where the fight goes and is the value bet in this fight. Honestly I would take Cote over Cerrone even if his line was -175 and at +140 imma super smash it.

Yeah I agree that despite Cerrone's improved offensive wrestling he wouldn't find it easy to take Cote down. Doesn't mean he couldn't get it to the mat with a well timed level change, but definitely not a gimme by any means (esp with the size edge like you said). And come fight night it's probably more than 10 lbs honestly.

Killa B has a nice ground game, but he's not better than Cerrone. He really isn't. I'm not sure why people don't get by now that Cerrone isn't just good on the mat, he's elite. His guard is very active and he's durable which allows him to not go into a defensive shell while on his back. And his transitions are extremely slick, especially if he does get top position.

I'm on Cote too for this fight and I think you're right in that this is a standup fight throughout but I think that's because Cote won't want to mess with Cowboy on the mat at all. Where with Saunders, Cote was just fine going there. Even though Cowboy is better than Ben standing too, Cote would rather fight standing vs Cowboy than grapple with him I'm guessing. (Though maybe try to mix in a takedown very late in rounds for the judges when Cowboy won't have time to work? It's what I'd do if I was Cote).

I don't agree with your capping the fight, I see it as a pick 'em so the value is all Cote as the dog imo. If you're capping the fight that way I know you'll have a huge bet on Cote though, I would if I capped it that way. And although Cowboy is one of my favorites to watch, I'll be rooting for my $ right along with yours on Cote LOL.
 
I just put a very big bet by my standards on patrick cote.

I love cerrone, but I think he is outmatched here.

Lets not get over board. Cerrone isn't outmatched. He honestly is more skilled than Cote in several aspects. Cote will come in huge. We may not see in height but we will see in width. In close fights, size beats skill more often than not.

Yeah I agree that despite Cerrone's improved offensive wrestling he wouldn't find it easy to take Cote down. Doesn't mean he couldn't get it to the mat with a well timed level change, but definitely not a gimme by any means (esp with the size edge like you said). And come fight night it's probably more than 10 lbs honestly.

Killa B has a nice ground game, but he's not better than Cerrone. He really isn't. I'm not sure why people don't get by now that Cerrone isn't just good on the mat, he's elite. His guard is very active and he's durable which allows him to not go into a defensive shell while on his back. And his transitions are extremely slick, especially if he does get top position.

I'm on Cote too for this fight and I think you're right in that this is a standup fight throughout but I think that's because Cote won't want to mess with Cowboy on the mat at all. Where with Saunders, Cote was just fine going there. Even though Cowboy is better than Ben standing too, Cote would rather fight standing vs Cowboy than grapple with him I'm guessing. (Though maybe try to mix in a takedown very late in rounds for the judges when Cowboy won't have time to work? It's what I'd do if I was Cote).

I don't agree with your capping the fight, I see it as a pick 'em so the value is all Cote as the dog imo. If you're capping the fight that way I know you'll have a huge bet on Cote though, I would if I capped it that way. And although Cowboy is one of my favorites to watch, I'll be rooting for my $ right along with yours on Cote LOL.

I disagree with Ben Saunders not having better BJJ than Cerrone. Yes Cerrone was hitting submissions back in WEC and early UFC days like nothing but he aint no black belt. Saunders has one of the best guards in MMA and seriously what they do over at Eddie Bravo's 10th Planet is insane. His dead orchard is crazy, just watch that fight with Kenny Robertson.

Cote dictates were this fight goes. Cerrone better cover up his liver because Cote is gonna gun for that especially early on when Cerrone has a slow start. Cerrone decision is the only way I can see him winning.

Cote should be the favorite in this fight. He honestly should.
 
What way do we think the odds are gonna move on Cote v Cerrone? He's gone between +130 and +155 from what I've seen.

I'm putting 4u down at +150 and may add a couple more if it gets better. Also got rd1 +800, KO +505, and NSC at +172 for .5u each
 
Lets not get over board. Cerrone isn't outmatched. He honestly is more skilled than Cote in several aspects. Cote will come in huge. We may not see in height but we will see in width. In close fights, size beats skill more often than not.



I disagree with Ben Saunders not having better BJJ than Cerrone. Yes Cerrone was hitting submissions back in WEC and early UFC days like nothing but he aint no black belt. Saunders has one of the best guards in MMA and seriously what they do over at Eddie Bravo's 10th Planet is insane. His dead orchard is crazy, just watch that fight with Kenny Robertson.

Cote dictates were this fight goes. Cerrone better cover up his liver because Cote is gonna gun for that especially early on when Cerrone has a slow start. Cerrone decision is the only way I can see him winning.

Cote should be the favorite in this fight. He honestly should.

In terms of MMA-effective grappling Cerrone>>>>Saunders. I really like Ben but I honestly don't even think it's that close.

Cerrone isn't just a black belt level grappler, he's a high level black belt in terms of effectiveness (even if he doesn't officially have one). Myles Jury is a black belt under Carlos Elias and go rewatch what Cerrone does to him in the grappling exchanges.
 
thanks for the input on 365 guys im definitely going to set up an account. I do see the value being on cote in this one. he does have cerrones weakness which is a tough pressure boxer but im weary of betting on this one. sure cote has looked great lately but the level of competition really isn't even close saunders burkman and riggs are his last 3 fights. even riggs had his moments against him. seems like a sketchy fight to bet on for me.
 
What way do we think the odds are gonna move on Cote v Cerrone? He's gone between +130 and +155 from what I've seen.

I'm putting 4u down at +150 and may add a couple more if it gets better. Also got rd1 +800, KO +505, and NSC at +172 for .5u each
I'm on Cote at +140. For +150 is even better. Imma go on round 1 (when its released) prop and might place a little more on the ML even though I have a lot on it.
There are a few leans on this card for me and the rest are probably just gonna be small time LB for me. I like to make one or two big bets instead of several medium sized ones. For the past 4 events, this has been effective for me in getting a profit no matter how big or slight.
 
Maybe Im being deluded by the dead Orchard but I think Saunders has better BJJ. MMA grappling is different than pure BJJ.
However, wouldn't you bet on Cote even if he was -160 favorite?

Nah would most likely pass altogether
Maybe Im being deluded by the dead Orchard but I think Saunders has better BJJ. MMA grappling is different than pure BJJ.
However, wouldn't you bet on Cote even if he was -160 favorite?

Would pass completely with Cote -160. I know he's smaller, but Cerrone is the most skilled guy Cote has faced since...Silva LOL?

I love Cote at dog odds. As the favorite would not touch him. I expect this thing to be competitive and both guys to have their moments.
 


Shows up to fight week 15-20 lbs over good lord, his wife wanted him to fight Elias and has "studied him pretty hard" ok then, apparently his wife is part of his coaching staff so I guess that explains the last comment, shes gonna be in his corner 8 1/2 months pregnant can you guys tell this is kind of a strange interview yet?

Is butthurt he got stopped by Brunson, thinks it was early but understands why the ref stepped in, Yamasaki said he was sorry for stopping it, training with Dan Henderson.
 
Cerrone is twice the grappler Saunders is. What are you guys smoking lol. The only thing that separates them is the different weight classes.

And his overall game makes his BJJ even better.

Having said that, I got money on Côte by decision +298 and I'm probably gonna play o2.5 as well. Côte has a tough chin and has developed his grappling over the years so he may be safe. But Cerrone only worries me that his body is just BEAT cuz he's cowboy Cerrone he's a nut. That liver is a concern but I just can't make a giant wager based on speculation that he's "damaged goods"
 
I'm not in agreement with you guys on Côte. Cowboy has a longer reach, is much faster, and has fought much stiffer competition recently. I don't think Cotes wrestling is good enough to win him this fight
 
Cote is gonna make it look easier than most of you expect. Cote has two ways in which he wins and thats by TKO or decision. Cote has good wrestling and much improved BJJ and with his size and strength should cancel Cowboy's grappling. Cote has power and heart for days. I don't see a TKO coming from Cowboy. He may need to employ a strategy where he controls distance and hope to win a deicison but his Muay thai stye will prohibit it from happening.



Saunders has the better BJJ on paper. I never said he was the better MMA grappler. Cerrone has slow starts and hopefully Cote can take advantage.

Well c'mon this discussion about grappling started with us talking about how Cote dealt with Saunders in an MMA fight, so the "bjj on paper" argument is pretty moot here.

That aside, I'd be surprised if Cowboy stopped Cote with any kind of strikes. Cote has one of the most underrated and best chins in MMA. Guy is probably Hunto level in terms of ability to take a shot and he's fighting a naturally smaller guy in Cowboy. If Cowboy wins by stoppage, I'm pretty confident it will be by sub. Even with how much Cote has improved his grappling (and make no mistake, it's a TON) there's danger in messing with Cowboy on the mat.

Agree about Cowboy early in fights too. In ME's where it's 5 rounds it's not a big deal, but in a 3 rounder like this it is. Giving away rd 1 is HUGE. Esp given how tough both guys are and that the fight likely goes to the cards.
 
It's a lb fight for me. I'm not as sold on Cote as you guys. From what i recall the Riggs perfomance wasn't great, it was 1-1 with Burkman going into r3 and yes ok he took out Saunders. Prior to those three fights he got dominated by WB, produced a very lacklustre win over Noke and was whopped by Bobby Voelker in r3. Hell fight before that he was practically knocked out by Sakara. Besides WB this is his toughest fight since Anderson. Styles make fights tho but im definitely holding back for lb.
 
Great discussion on cote v cowboy.

I do think saying this will be "easy" for cote is going overboard. It's pretty close everywhere for me.

I think cote has a size and strength edge. Prolly ko power edge, too.. tho cerrone has some wicked kicks. Cote prolly a little more durable overall. Cowboy weaker to body than anything, tho, and I don't remember cote going to the body a ton in his fights?

Cowboy has better pure bjj, tho,and I think the wrestling might actually be close

I think it's a damned close fight, so I DO like the dog in cote. Like the over, too.
 
Yeah some pretty detailed discussion on cote and cowboy, I too was feeling that value line on cote his last few fights almost make him to look like he should be the favourite coming in.

Cotes chin is pretty good, much better imo then cowboys we saw the brazillian cowboy getting the better of donald early on in r1 via striking alone, so I do still reckon cote should have that advantage in striking so I do wonder can donald really work his grappling here and get the fight to where he wants.
Naturally will be live betting it as per my style but a flyer here and there has to be done!

Maybe cote via ko, some on the D line and bet Cowboy via split D
 
As the bigger man with (imo) superior boxing skills I do slightly favour Cote here.. In saying that looking back at Cote's record the only truly great fighter he has fought in the past few years has been WB, compared to Cowboy who has been way more active and has been facing and beating a much higher caliber of competition albeit at a lower weight class. Very interesting match up for sure.
 
Imo Robin Black is a prick.

Lol, he actually thinks Ariel Helwani is "gossip media" when he is 50 years old and dresses like an emo kid and analyses fights by using FLIM FLAM. Dude this guy fucking sucks.

Yikes, that tweet is a bit much

btw i'm with EZ all the way in the Cote vs Cowboy discussion. I'm on the over, and i'll be on Cote a bit smaller. Really only cause hes the dog, in a pick em fight I think i'd be inclined to side with Donald or wait til the end of round 1 and lb. Cerrone has more tools. If Saunders can take down Cote, so can Cerrone and Cowboy's top game is much better. The clinch will be an interesting area, wonder if Cote can do what Alvarez did. In a toe to toe striking battle I really think it comes down to who is in better form on the night, I can see Cote using well placed punches mixed with his superior defense enough to win and I can see Cerrone kicking him from long range and using that beautiful straight knee effectively everytime Cote tries to step in.
 
Cote is also the kind of fighter that feeds on momentum. Once he starts winning a round, everything just shifts in his direction. At the end of the day Cote seems like he has more options to win(TKO,decision). That was one of the main sways on Cote. Once he wins round 1, I see him take round 2 and maybe get a near finish. The grappling will maybe not come into play in this fight. Saunders/Cerrone BJJ is also a moot discussion point in this because its Cote/Cerrone fight and I was just using that Saunders/Cote fight as a backup to say Cote grappling is much improved and could help nullify Cerrone ground game with the help of his size advantage. We can only wait and see. Honestly, I liked this little discussion with you and we both put up fair points.

What are your thoughts about Jotko vs Mccrory
Are you a Cote fan by any chance?
 
Yes, and I like his resurgence (might be a fanboy). Doesn't mean Im not looking at this fight carefully cause there is money on the line.

I think your posts about the fight have good substance however I think you're being a tad extreme. I may eat crow next Sat but I don't think Côte has that many advantages nor will it be as easy as you think it will be. Cowboy dec at +223 for me. Are you playing this fight bigger than your other plays ?
 
I really didnt say Cote has many advantages over Cerrone. Cerrone is more skilled. I just justified how the grappling edge for Cerrone could be over come. Cote has the better boxing and more power with an iron chin and crazy heart. Its not unfair to say he can't win by TKO/KO and its not unfair to say he cant win by decision when Cerrone mostly has bad round 1 starts. Cote could then win round 2 (keeps momentum) and win a decision. I don't see how Cerrone finishes Cote on the feet and I don't see the fight going to the ground as I've stated before. I can only see a Cerrone decision. Yes its one of my larger plays but I did look at it sufficiently from both sides. I was on Cote before looking at the lines.
So I'm assuming you're on Cote NSC? It's higher than his ML
 
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