Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jun 18, 2016.
Betting against champs this year seems good lol. Bisping, Stipe, Cruz, Meisha all won their title fights as dogs and challengers. Bear in mind there were only 7 title fights. 4/7 for challengers. Eddie at or near +400 is a great bet. Great wrestler and good boxing and has heart for days. Worse bets could be made even if its against RDA.
We got less then 3 weeks of debate across 3 back to back events with a 4 day break and another one and more !
Working with Dos Anjos, Duffy, Jouban and maybe Durinho parlays
God I love these 3 cards for gambling. I have a strong lean on what I want to play for almost this whole card, a good 8-9 of the fights
I just put 5u on Lewis. Can someone tell me what i am missing? Nelson is all but done at this point and BB is dangerous AF
But Big Country is coming off a win...still has an iron jaw, big power, and should be the best opponent BB has faced so far.
Although I'm always thinking about how poor a shape BC's body must be.... He clearly has an absolute shit diet, and the amount of punishment he has taken throughout his career, it's gotta give at some moment.
I got 2 parlays finishing on the under 1.5 for this fight, $53 to win $481.
what do you guys think about Mitch Clarke vs Joe Duffy?
I am leaning Duffy -- not impressed with Clarke.
Black beast is far more dangerous on the ground than the feet, but it's nearly impossible to take Roy down. It's going to be a close striking match, probably slow paced since Lewis will respect the power and Roy is lazy.
For that reason I don't like the under. Nelson has a way better chance of finishing and more gas, so I favor him.
Im on Roy. BB got taken out by Mitrione and Jordan so Roy can defo vanquish him. BB has pretty low output on the feet and does not look comfortable standing, and all his finishes bar Gonzaga (who is a super flake when the going gets tough) are from gnp. He is not gnp Nelson who is super tough to takedown. Nelson also has a granite chin and with BB poor stand up i will be pretty shocked if BB can finish Nelson standing. Even Potts had success against BB nearly leg locked him and then secured a takedown but got sloppy from top. Im pretty confident here already have £600 or so on Roy but will round that up to 1k.
Nelson looked good against Rosholt cardio held up he just a bit hesitant due to takedown threat.
Can't trust any hw at this point, BB has that brutal one punch ko power (15 wins/14 via ko) and roy is just a seasoned tuf winner vet, roy is technically the better fighter coming in with far better wins, skills and accomplishments. I feel BB lost those battles with meathead and shawn since both guys are athletic, accurate and hit hard something a big heavyweight such as bb can't deal with as well.
So I actually think bb power and recent improvements (as he claims with his mindset) and his ko power may just give roy trouble coming in so I like Roy on paper but think BB could pull off an upset too.
I expect the under's and similar props to be unplayable !
I thought clarke showed a ton of heart and kept chiesa honest and did not allow chiesa to lock in his go to choke move, showed decent grappling also and chiesa looked almost a weight class above him in that fight, before that he had that amazing come back from losing choke on al laquinta. But Clarke imo has too much baggage in this fight, for one thing a year off from an injury involving a acupuncture needle sliding its way into his bone causing nerve damage imo this just won't help against duffy with his pro boxing and black belt bjj background, clarke will need to grapple and secure take downs consistently. I expect duffys line to be unplayable but lets wait and see.
Okay this is what i needed. I might still hit bb but just small
RDA is a beast but do you get some chance for Eddie to win this fight?
Alvarez via dec is +700
let's not discuss fights which have no lines?
Terrible matchup for Lewis.
RDA+Nelson, perhaps Jobuan or Burns
i think you're gonna be in the minority.. i don't think BB can ko nelson when much higher level guys with more KO power haven't been able to. think nelson stuffs any td's and eventually lands something big.
BB got GG out of there on feet but he traditionally only is good when on top with GnP.. he's not a good striker
im looking forward to the bb nelson weigh in.
roy usually pretty casual bb usually in your face borderline brawl initiator.
i also wonder what the bb game plan will be. i feel he has to get him out of there early or eventually roy will land that right hand.
chins have been cracking a lot lately. maybe its roys time
Say what you will about MMA math but RDA dismantled a before and after stellar-form Cerrone who unan-beat Alvarez who laid & prayed hard to alot of gods to beat a figured out Pettis.
In all seriousness, Alvarez can take this very fews places to beat RDA. Sure, the odds are there to bet Alvarez but I won't and will disagree with those who do.
And the belt-changing momentum doesn't bother me because the UFC doesn't want RDA to be the champ anyways so karma says it's not going anywhere.
(Bias disclosure: $150+ on RDA+Hunt. I did the math there too but the formula got stuck on a cowering Brock and a Hunt bomb.)
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