UFN 90 - RDA vs Alvarez - Las Vegas

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Say what you will about MMA math but RDA dismantled a before and after stellar-form Cerrone who unan-beat Alvarez who laid & prayed hard to alot of gods to beat a figured out Pettis.

In all seriousness, Alvarez can take this very fews places to beat RDA. Sure, the odds are there to bet Alvarez but I won't and will disagree with those who do.

And the belt-changing momentum doesn't bother me because the UFC doesn't want RDA to be the champ anyways so karma says it's not going anywhere.

(Bias disclosure: $150+ on RDA+Hunt. I did the math there too but the formula got stuck on a cowering Brock and a Hunt bomb.)
RDA hasnt had to worry about a threat of a takedown in recent fights that he's looked amazing. If you look at his last three losses (Khabib, Tibau, Guida), he was taken down more than once in all of them and Eddie can definitely take RDA down imo. As great as RDA has looked, I think there's value on Alvarez
 
Alvarez is a perfect dog play imo. I love all versions of him by decision. This fight will be close and i doubt either guy gets finished.

Eddie can make this scrappy enough to make the judges scratch their heads before making a final decision.
 
Alvarez is a perfect dog play imo. I love all versions of him by decision. This fight will be close and i doubt either guy gets finished.

Eddie can make this scrappy enough to make the judges scratch their heads before making a final decision.
I think Eddie could definitely get finished
 
Agree that Eddie could get finished but my favourite play is by far O3.5 @ +130. Eddie can take a beating and im sure he will try to wrestle or at least push RDA up against the fence like did vs Pettis. I think/hope he will have some success doing this. If not, it likely ends inside 3 rounds.
 
BB game plan will probably be the same, stand and brawl and hope something lands big :)

Agree on value on eddie, might make the lines on RDA become more playable and hopefully some interesting pop value on the decision lines or on an RDA finish for r4/r5.
 
Starts round 3 at -147 is officially my play for the main event. Love that line, Eddie is too damn tough to get finished within 10 mins
 
BB game plan will probably be the same, stand and brawl and hope something lands big :)

Agree on value on eddie, might make the lines on RDA become more playable and hopefully some interesting pop value on the decision lines or on an RDA finish for r4/r5.

He doesnt stand and brawl tho. Theres not much footage of him standing as hes normally on top or on the bottom. Thats why i like roy here super tough to take down and better standing bb not comfortable on the feet.
 
Could see a good amount of clinching in that BB vs Nelson fight. Every BB fight has clinching at some point and Roy needs to get in the pocket to throw punches.
 
He doesnt stand and brawl tho. Theres not much footage of him standing as hes normally on top or on the bottom. Thats why i like roy here super tough to take down and better standing bb not comfortable on the feet.

Seen few times where he is just standing and trading but yeah many times he is off his back or on top, he just tries to land big power punches and this tends to make guys go into a take down or clinch, bb does well with gnp as we have seen.

This is why I think we may see bb or roy just clinching and grinding against the cage and both guys trying to land that big overhand punch, actually one great point for roy is his dirty boxing in tight spaces especially clinches and he has showed take downs recently.

I like bb for the underdog, but rather play the ko or 1.5 under but they will probably be unplayable.
 
I think rda finishes alvarez, personally
 
Hoping its perfect for that +1000 BB dec line

Need these big boys to eat plenty of hot dogs before the fight, and then need BB to out hug Roy

If i can get bb dec at that line i will hedge that line is fuckin insane. In a way wish i put my largest prop bet ever on that but im on roy now and i do think he puts bb down.
 
BB telegraphs his shots massively. Big wide left hook and his right hand is about as discrete as a nuclear bomb. He loads up massively big reason why he has few stoppages standing. Even for a HW its easy enough to avoid his shots.
 
BB telegraphs his shots massively. Big wide left hook and his right hand is about as discrete as a nuclear bomb. He loads up massively big reason why he has few stoppages standing. Even for a HW its easy enough to avoid his shots.

Roy's the big favourite coming in and should get the win, I think myself and few others are liking black beast for that underdog hw value, I just can't trust hw's when one punch ends it :)

I am praying BTsports renews the ufc contact for end of july, if it goes to sky were screwed since it may become all PPV events.
 
early thoughts coming in for this event:
Felipe vs sanders
Think it goes similar to sanders previous fight where he uses his wrestling and NCAA div 1 background to work on take downs and control but felipe is crafty off his back (brown belt bjj) and has a black belt in MT so should be good striking wise too, I think felipe will edge this fight perhaps get a sub during one of those scrambles on the ground.

Pedro vs Doane
2 good solid all rounders here, doane lost the grappling and ground game to sanders in his last fight while pedro locked a tight guillotine on sanders in r1 to win (but found on supplements) otherwise I like pedro here, better jiu jitsu (won multiple bjj competitions) and has showed he has a chin and can hang with top competition, like pedro su.

Burns vs Lukasz
I think burns gets the job done, decent at closing the gap and getting guys down to work on submissions here, only concern I have is his gas tank, maybe burns sub hedged with lukasz decision.

Mina vs Pyle
Mina is a decent all round fighter, has excellent credentials (bjj, wrestling, judo titles) is a 3rd degree black belt bjj but I think he is still young and not fought upper tier competition yet, pyle is an experienced vet, knows how to win and turn fights ugly and has a wealth of experience over the undefeated prospect in mina. I like pyle su here even if he is 40.

Birchak vs lopes
Like Birchak here should have the better wrestling and bjj coming in over lopes here (at least on paper) like birchak su here

Makdessi vs Mehdi
Should be an interesting kickboxing bout here with mehdis (world MT champ) and makdessi (kickboxing world champ), I have seen mehdis past few fights and he does fight at range and use his jabs to set up his body and leg kicks well, I felt his jabs and boxing was poor but he surprised me with his punching power, its possible he mixes up his jabs with soft and hard punches, makdessi we know well great all rounder solid kickboxing and boxing all round, I think makdessi should be the favourite coming in but mehdi is a live dog, should be a great live betting fight.

Belal vs Jouban
Belal is an undefeated 9-0 prospect, good boxing, striking defence with footwork, and nice leg kicks showed good cardio in his last 5 round battle with steve carl (and won) I think belal is a good fighter but jouban has more killer instinct and lands his shots with power and conviction, he will need to watch out for belals sharp counter jabs otherwise reckon jouban su or via ko is possible.

Clarke vs duffy
Clarkes a good all rounder, trains grappling and bjj and has shown he has a chin and heart but duffy imo just another level up as long as duffy comes in healthy and with the right mind set he should be better then clarke. Also to point out clarke had a serious injury in his arm and damaged some nerves via a needle (acupuncture treatment) so I expect duffy to look better here skill set and timing wise.

Lewis vs Roy
2 big power punchers at hw no less, roy has the better skill set and much better resume coming in and should get the ko or win but I do like lewis power and like him as an underdog, would prefer to play the under's 1.5 or via ko, may take a stab at roy r2 ko finish and bb r3 also.

RDA vs eddie
eddie showed excellent grappling and take downs recently, showing us he knows how to win and score points in the process but Its not going to be enough against RDA who has excellent bjj (black belt 3rd degree) and excellent MT, I feel rda uses body kicks and low kicks to damage eddie and look to use his left & right straight counters to slow down eddie before winning via ko.
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early thoughts coming in for this event:
Felipe vs sanders
Think it goes similar to sanders previous fight where he uses his wrestling and NCAA div 1 background to work on take downs and control but felipe is crafty off his back (brown belt bjj) and has a black belt in MT so should be good striking wise too, I think felipe will edge this fight perhaps get a sub during one of those scrambles on the ground.

Pedro vs Doane
2 good solid all rounders here, doane lost the grappling and ground game to sanders in his last fight while pedro locked a tight guillotine on sanders in r1 to win (but found on supplements) otherwise I like pedro here, better jiu jitsu (won multiple bjj competitions) and has showed he has a chin and can hang with top competition, like pedro su.

Burns vs Lukasz
I think burns gets the job done, decent at closing the gap and getting guys down to work on submissions here, only concern I have is his gas tank, maybe burns sub hedged with lukasz decision.

Mina vs Pyle
Mina is a decent all round fighter, has excellent credentials (bjj, wrestling, judo titles) is a 3rd degree black belt bjj but I think he is still young and not fought upper tier competition yet, pyle is an experienced vet, knows how to win and turn fights ugly and has a wealth of experience over the undefeated prospect in mina. I like pyle su here even if he is 40.

Birchak vs lopes
Like Birchak here should have the better wrestling and bjj coming in over lopes here (at least on paper) like birchak su here

Makdessi vs Mehdi
Should be an interesting kickboxing bout here with mehdis (world MT champ) and makdessi (kickboxing world champ), I have seen mehdis past few fights and he does fight at range and use his jabs to set up his body and leg kicks well, I felt his jabs and boxing was poor but he surprised me with his punching power, its possible he mixes up his jabs with soft and hard punches, makdessi we know well great all rounder solid kickboxing and boxing all round, I think makdessi should be the favourite coming in but mehdi is a live dog, should be a great live betting fight.

Belal vs Jouban
Belal is an undefeated 9-0 prospect, good boxing, striking defence with footwork, and nice leg kicks showed good cardio in his last 5 round battle with steve carl (and won) I think belal is a good fighter but jouban has more killer instinct and lands his shots with power and conviction, he will need to watch out for belals sharp counter jabs otherwise reckon jouban su or via ko is possible.

Clarke vs duffy
Clarkes a good all rounder, trains grappling and bjj and has shown he has a chin and heart but duffy imo just another level up as long as duffy comes in healthy and with the right mind set he should be better then clarke. Also to point out clarke had a serious injury in his arm and damaged some nerves via a needle (acupuncture treatment) so I expect duffy to look better here skill set and timing wise.

Lewis vs Roy
2 big power punchers at hw no less, roy has the better skill set and much better resume coming in and should get the ko or win but I do like lewis power and like him as an underdog, would prefer to play the under's 1.5 or via ko, may take a stab at roy r2 ko finish and bb r3 also.

RDA vs eddie
eddie showed excellent grappling and take downs recently, showing us he knows how to win and score points in the process but Its not going to be enough against RDA who has excellent bjj (black belt 3rd degree) and excellent MT, I feel rda uses body kicks and low kicks to damage eddie and look to use his left & right straight counters to slow down eddie before winning via ko.
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With you on every fight
 
On Big Country as well. As Ballsaque mentioned this is a tough style matchup for BB. He does his best work with td's and GnP. Roy's not gonna be easy to td and unlike GG he has a great chin as we all know. With that power and durability on the feet and the fact that I don't see him having too much trouble stuffing td's, it's hard not to take Roy here as a slight favorite if we're looking at clinching/standup battle. In it for 1.5u, might up it to 2+ if it gets better but tempering it atm b/c hw.
 
Roy's the big favourite coming in and should get the win, I think myself and few others are liking black beast for that underdog hw value, I just can't trust hw's when one punch ends it :)

I am praying BTsports renews the ufc contact for end of july, if it goes to sky were screwed since it may become all PPV events.

Yeah i hear ya normally avoid hw's but this is nelsons chin we are talking about!

Didnt know it was up. PPV only for numbered UFCs if Sky get it but i reckon BT renew. They are waging war with Sky and their viewing figures must be on the up with MMA's increase in popularity.

Pyle Mina line defo gonna be interesting. Mina has power which is Pyle's kryptonite but Mina gasses bad. Pyle su Mina r1 ko hedge im thinking.
 
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