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UFN 90 - RDA vs Alvarez - Las Vegas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jun 18, 2016.

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  1. walljohn White Belt

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    Baghdad looks like he is boxing underwater. His punches are so slow and then he covers up and runs under any sig. pressure. He does have good low leg kicks and some power if mak. is half asleep to get hit with a slow motion punch or walks into 1 while throwing himself, but i see Mak. absol. dominating here with pressure. After watching Bag. on tape his style and who he fought to get there i strongly Q. why he is even in the UFC.
     
  2. Kowboy Karl Black Belt

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    the over 2.5 is -200

    you think makdessi can finish him?

    he seems really cautious
     
  3. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I wouldnt take that to the bank those live chat peps know fuck all. Unibet will offer from fight one but i hate using the website so non user friendly imo. They also take an age to process a lb meaning half the time it gets cancelled. Plus shitty limits ive not won much off them as i hardly use them but last time i did they were limiting me to like £20 plays. I pray pp offers it or 365 and ladbrokes put it up mid way through the prelims. I might just miss the first two fights to get some extra sleep in this case. Cant miss Burns as im balls deep.
     
  4. kenCs Couches, couches, couches which one should I pick? Banned

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    I dont think they know anything usually. B365 alwasy says if it doesn't say ts on the schedule, its not but then they always have live betting. I would take it with a grain of salt.
     
  5. walljohn White Belt

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    Ya i really do.
    I would not surprised at all even the 1st round.
    That price is really good, if i was not balls to the walls on Mak. i would throw down on that yes.
     
  6. RyuDave Green Belt

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    Ok mate, I think I'll deposit a little bit in unibet to be safe.. I'm hoping you're right as next to no prebets laid as per our convo so was trying to stick to lb..
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    wowww, alvarez getting hammered

    i just did 0.5u on bm at +285 when i saw it dropping elsewhere.. already +233 now on BM..
     
  8. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    I wont be able to watch any of these events live. BOL to you all!
     
  9. kenCs Couches, couches, couches which one should I pick? Banned

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    Fuck it, I like Alvarez for the upset. Imma go with my gut here. At +250, why not. Nothing been going my way lately nd hopefully, this three events put me towards the right track.
     
  10. molest Purple Belt

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    they do guarant the prop, nelson was at -140 while the prop was at +150, he is down to -120, black beast getting hit hard and im worried everyone here is on nelson.
     
  11. piglord Black Belt

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    about to get my drink on real hard. gambling with pure nihilism in my soul tonight.
     
  12. piglord Black Belt

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    i'm drinking rotten fucking courvoisier, what are you supposed to mix with this horse shit?
     
  13. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Drink it neat like a man, Pig! How its supposed to be drunk
     
  14. Ukram Silver Belt

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    Sigh bet365 showing live betting timer icon on main fight (last 4 fights only) as live bet, while you can't trust bookies with that schedule its usually accurate when that timer live play icon appears.

    May check half way through but ride or die on roy otherwise !

    Eddie is a live dog and he has focused much on his wrestling and grappling lately, still reckon RDA either gets a ko or decision though he has some of the best MT and leg kicks going.
     
  15. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    You can get Nelson at basically evens now. Nelson KO is +160. Personally, that's not enough difference to bet his KO line. There's a chance this ends up like Roy/Rosholt or even that Roy somehow snags a sub. I'd rather just bet his ML at evens than hit the prop. That's just me.
     
  16. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Don't know if I post this here but ...

    Sorry I haven't had a lot of time to spend in here lately but I made a few breakdowns talking with one of my friends on Twitter and I figured I would drop them off here —along with my picks for tonight UFC fight night 90 and best of luck to all my boys!

    Alvarez + Nelson + Jouban + Duffy + Pyle + Makdessi +Birchak + Munhoz + Sanders + Burns + Vieira + Luque

    Alberto Mina vs. Mike Pyle :

    Starting with Mina: the Brazilian native has a totally unkempt striking attack, and you can only get away with these fundamental flaws for short period of time before running into a roadblock. Fortunately for Mina, his competition has been — to put it kindly — les than stellar thus far. Stylistically it has been especially favorable for him and he's amassed a pretty 2-0 record in the UFC — HOWEVER — that record looks much better on paper than in reality. That is to say, it is a bit deceptive given the truth of the matter which is that Mina has struggled mightily in both octagon performances. The debut was particularly rocky with Mina nearly being put to sleep by a wholly mediocre Shinsho Anzai — an inferior opponent who took the fight on super short notice. His second outing was equally inauspicious as he took an absolute drubbing from the 40 year old — part-time fighter, full-time heartthrob — Yoshihiro Akiyama, in what was an extremely close tilt he barely squeaked by in.

    It's absolutely true Mike Pyle has all sorts of fundamental flaws himself. His striking is not sound as he drops his hands during exchanges, backs up in straight lines and worse still is the fact that with nearly two decades in the sport he continues to keep his chin bolt straight in the air to be teed off. Additionally, his erect posture make it possible for his opponent to get in on his hips and take him to the mat. Making matters worse, he's not fast, not strong or powerful, not athletic, and compounding these matters — he is 40 fucking years old. Despite the perceived negatives, the ultra-versatile Pyle is not just competent wherever the fight takes place — he's a threat.

    What's more, over the course of 20 years in the cage, he hasn't taken a ton of physical damage on his body thus allowing him to remain competitive at the highest levels of the sport. In fact, during the last 6 years, Pyle has only lost to the cream of the crop of the division such as the once formidable talent Jake Ellenberger in 2010, dueling prospects in Colby Covington and Jordan Mein (now retired) and #1 WW contender Rory MacDonald — that is it. Meanwhile, he has been able to rack up victories over an assortment of reputable competition. This includes a top 10 ranked — and tough-as-nails — Rick Story along with the very game and highly athletic Sean Spencer who suffered the first TKO of his career vs. The Mullet a few months ago.

    Mina is most definitely better of the two on the ground, there is no doubt about it, he's a serious BJJ black belt who has won numerous competitions. Don't get it twisted, Mike Pyle is also a black belt, but there are levels and this is one of those cases. Indeed, Mina is on another level — for instance, both Cain Velasquez and Fabricio Werdum are both BJJ black belts — though one of them is on Jedi-Level while the other operates on a more human plane. What's more, BJJ is not the be-all end-all of grappling in MMA as traditional 'tussling' arts such as Judo, Sambo and various forms of wrestling are all under the "grappling" umbrella so to speak. This is where things get interesting. This is because Mina is also a black belt in Judo while Pyle a high level Freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestler. The difference here may be the fact that Mina doesn't have a very good offensive takedown game while Pyle generally has solid takedown defense — ergo we might end up with the grappling canceling itself out and giving us a low level kick boxing match.

    The determining factor in this case is who is the better pugilist and to me that is the old man. Specifically, I think Pyle has an advantage with his rangy and wiry frame which helps him to be effective from the fringe with a long jab and nice kicks to the body. Additionally "Quicksand" can fight in close quarters where he loves grabbing hold of the Muay-Thai 'Plum' where he'll ravage his opponents with brutal knees and elbows from inside the clinch. What's more, while Pyle does not have perfect fundamentals, his technique is much cleaner than is the Brazilians. While both men have power, almost every strike Mina hurls is designed to hit a home-run whereas Pyle is content connecting with singles and doubles. The difference in their approach is why Mina has a shallow gas tank and Pyle can go a hard three just rolling out of the bed.

    As such, the biggest advantage Pyle may have going into this fight is the conditioning heading down the stretch. In his twin showings inside the octagon, the 34-year-old Brazilian has slowed down significantly and barely been able to crawl to the finish line in both performances. I mean, he was running on fumes when he cracked and polished off Anzai and was flat out exhausted heading into round three vs. Akiyama which barely saw him see the final horn blow. Point blank, If he hasn't seriously addressed this problem coming into this weekend, I can guarantee day at the office won't have the same happy ending as his other two.

    Seeing how Pyle finished Spencer and was labeled to to bring the war to the always tough out and Sherman Tank of a man Rick Story has me siding with "The Mullet" here.


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    Belal Muhammad fights Alan Jouban and the fight is essentially a pick em' now. I got Jouban at +125 (IIRC) and may wager more. Right now they are both -110 and setting pretty steady. Muhammad is a very good fighter and any other time I would probably favor him to win the match slightly, but there are a few extenuating circumstances giving major advantages to Jouban in the intangible department this particular fight. This f course makes me lean his way in what is at worst 45-55 match up either way.

    First of all, Muhammad is making his octagon debut so we have to consider the initial octagon jitters. Second, he is participating in the co main event which puts extra spotlight on him to perform and all of that extra media that is required for a CMEF takes a lot of extra training time and is exhausting. Third, (the clincher for me) is that this is the month of Ramadan for Muslims and it is a great deal. Muhammad is fasting until it's dark out yet he is still keeping his same rigorous training schedule. Other fighters like Khabilov, Khabib and Magomedov refuse to even compete during the holy month because they say it is too grueling of a proces trying to train and make weight without eating properly. The UFC debutante and TITAN FC champion Muhammad admits as much and said that he would never have taken the fight either had it not been for the fact the UFC made the offer during this time and he couldn't refuse.

    Stylistically, this is a worse problem for anyone who is not going to be in 100% condition when facing the cardio monster Jouban. Though some fighters would have the chance to come out guns blazing and potentially end things in the first round — ultimately negating any concern about the conditioning down the stretch — Muhammad is not a quick finisher but the type of guy that will just pick his opponent apart until they break late in the fight. The problem with this is that Jouban can take a metric ton of punishment and his cardio is off the meter. Indeed, Jouban only gets stronger as the fight wears on and loves to make it a dog fight.

    Taking all that into consideration, I believe a play on Jouban to win via the decision + a small bet for a third round finish is the is the proper play in this scenario. The over 2.5 is also the way to go here given that neither fighter is likely to get the finish but if either man does I think it will be a Jouban in three. Muhammad is a stud and he will be around the UFC for a long time — make no mistake about it. However, he is entering this fight at a terrible time against a nightmare opponent while having been prohibited from dieting properly. In short, you don't want to take any fight in the UFC when you are compromised in the slightest, much less your debut and against a top flight athlete like Jouban.

    Entering a fight with Jouban you needs to be in 100% physical/mental form and I just can't see anyway at all that Muhammad can be. It's possible that he can still win this fight even though he is making it difficult on himself — but is most definitely going to have a tough hill to climb.


    ________

    I do think that one of the best plays of three cards is — and I can't believe I'm saying this — Diego Sanchez at -110.

    I never would've thought I would have said that in 2016 that Diego Sanchez was a "best" anything — let alone bet. I mean, I don't believe Diego has very good skills anymore, but this is the absolute perfect match up for him. Diego is able to thrive when given a chance to force his will on to people and break them. Well, Joe Lauzon is that guy. First off, Joe doesn't have better wrestling. He has mediocre striking — and worse still — he lacks the punching power to scare Diego or threaten him whatsoever. Diego will be able to go full throttle right at Joe without the slightest bit of apprehension. What's more, Diego notoriously possesses some of the best cardio ever and that has always been J-Lau's Achilles heel. Lastly — though I don't subscribe to MMAth theory — I do find kernels of useful knowledge in their match up with common opponent Jim Miller. Basically, Diego beat Miller quite easily while Joe stood tough but took a drubbing from Jim.

    Essentially I think Diego should probably be a -220 favorite here and therefore I will put a moderate sized bet on him. The only way I see Joe winning this is by catching Diego in a first-round submission.
     
  17. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    You on BC Mkdess? I think his dec line +690 has value
     
  18. AlejandroMMA Blue Belt

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    Glad to hear you guys are heavy on Nelson too; I was all over that at -130. Still although he's defied those odds for years my natural bias toward age and athletic ability is making me nervous haha.
     
  19. edole Brown Belt

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    my book has BB by DEC at +750 and Roy by DEC at +780

    I am playing both of those. Roy hasn't connected on anybody since Big Nog in 2014 and slows down in all of his fights. If this gets out of RD1, I think there is a good chance its going all 3.
     
  20. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    Man Burns by decision is +170. He has 1 decision win but I kind of like it.
    I guess that better than playing it to go the distance at +350.
    5 Dimes has roy by decision at +800 and Lewis decision +590.
     
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