UFN 90 - RDA vs Alvarez - Las Vegas

[EzFlyer]

@Rebel_LioN
That sucks, man... could be some settings? Cookies or something?

I like Muhammad +135, btw. I think he can hang on the feet and might get tds to steal rounds.

 

[Joseph Budden]

@Rebel_LioN
That sucks, man... could be some settings? Cookies or something?

I like Muhammad +135, btw. I think he can hang on the feet and might get tds to steal rounds.

Agreed, like him at that price now. Was hoping and expecting money to come in on Jouban.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

@Rebel_LioN
That sucks, man... could be some settings? Cookies or something?

I like Muhammad +135, btw. I think he can hang on the feet and might get tds to steal rounds.

Sigh it can't be. Very coincidental move during line openers.

Anyways, I feel like the right play is Jouban's ML with a play on Muhammed by decision when that opens. I also think he can win for sure but Jouban is the better finisher if he's able to get in tight. But Jouban has good leg kicks too I don't think he's completely out of Muhammed's stick and move style. I don't know what Muhammed's top game is like though and Jouban is sometimes apathetic if he gets put there even though he's a black belt.

Edit: I meant Jouban at -135 or -145. Current odds -175 I'm not touching

 

[edole]

Beltran vs Vieira is tough to call. Vieira seems like he might be better suited for 125. He got out wrestled by Lopes who is also a small BW.

Beltran has a 2 inch height and 4.5 inch reach advantage.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Beltran vs Vieira is tough to call. Vieira seems like he might be better suited for 125. He got out wrestled by Lopes who is also a small BW.

Beltran has a 2 inch height and 4.5 inch reach advantage.

Yeah I was heavily leaning Vieira til I rewatched his fight vs Dileno and Beltran vs Vera & Ning. Still favor Reginaldo for sure, but not at -175. If he gets to -140 i'm all over it

 

[null]

@Rebel_LioN
That sucks, man... could be some settings? Cookies or something?

I like Muhammad +135, btw. I think he can hang on the feet and might get tds to steal rounds.

Is it a worry at all that Belal is fasting for Ramadan now? The Parting Shot podcast guys mentioned it, and remember this is a short notice bout. I believe fasting means he can't eat or even drink until after nightfall for the whole month of June 5th through July 5th, unless I'm mistaken by what that means. That's only two days before his fight on July 7th.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Is it a worry at all that Belal is fasting for Ramadan now? The Parting Shot podcast guys mentioned it, and remember this is a short notice bout. I believe fasting means he can't eat or even drink until after nightfall for the whole month of June 5th through July 5th, unless I'm mistaken by what that means. That's only two days before his fight on July 7th.

This dude is fasting during fight camp? OK maybe i'll rethink playing him. Thats a bit much.

 

[edole]

The Birchak vs Lopes fight is another conundrum.

both are decent wrestlers.

Birchak will have 3 inches of height and 3.5 inches of reach on Lopes.

Birchak should have better cardio, but Lopes has that guillotine!

 

[Sham5916910]

I get the Pyle chin concerns, but honestly his skill advantages should out weigh that. Especially at dog odds. Mina isn't a technical guy, he relies on winging those power shots so its gonna make it easier for Pyle to hide his chin.

Get ya but pyle is not good at tucking his chin. He is also poor at range but very good in the clinch and has nice trips. I just cant bet him at 40 with chin concerns against a banger. Has mina done his camp with kings again? Pyle for me is lb after r1 when mina starts to slow but pyle has to push pace in 1st. Mina was ok if memory serves me right cardio wise until he went for finish of akiyama near end of r2 after a slow paced r1 and 4 mins of r2.

 

[Sham5916910]

Wow fasting legit concerns. Amir khan wont entertain a fight anywhere near ramadam.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

The Birchak vs Lopes fight is another conundrum.

both are decent wrestlers.

Birchak will have 3 inches of height and 3.5 inches of reach on Lopes.

Birchak should have better cardio, but Lopes has that guillotine!

Aren't both guys super aggressive ? Shouldn't that mean a finish?
@Joseph Budden why you playing the over ? I ask cuz I don't know anything about Dileno other than his debut which I was probably not even paying attention.

 

[arrelione]

Hi guys!

I placed a 13$ 12 team parlay(8/12 already hit) with a possible 65717$ pay out!

I am usually against hedging but this would be my biggest win ever and a significant cash out for me outside of betting as well, so I am nervous about the play even though I really liked some of these plays a lot more before the hail marry got a real chance of hitting.

Nevertheless, I've got Roy Nelson ITD, TJ Dillashaw, Cat Zingano and Lesnar/Hunt UNDER 0,5 rounds(150 seconds) left to cash in on the parlay.

Right now I am thinking about two ways to go about this but am open to hear your suggestions as well as I haven't made up my mind yet.

Option 1: No hedge on Roy or TJ, big hedge on Pena, and if the parlay is still alive a big hedge on Over 0,5 on Lesnar/Hunt.

Option 2: Heding all the fights one by one. I haven't put much thought into the amount on the possible hedges though.

I've never wanted fights to get cancelled as much as I want these fights to get cancelled.

Any advice for a fellow degen on how you would handle this situation?

 

[edole]

Hi guys!

I placed a 13$ 12 team parlay(8/12 already hit) with a possible 65717$ pay out!

I am usually against hedging but this would be my biggest win ever and a significant cash out for me outside of betting as well, so I am nervous about the play even though I really liked some of these plays a lot more before the hail marry got a real chance of hitting.

Nevertheless, I've got Roy Nelson ITD, TJ Dillashaw, Cat Zingano and Lesnar/Hunt UNDER 0,5 rounds(150 seconds) left to cash in on the parlay.

Right now I am thinking about two ways to go about this but am open to hear your suggestions as well as I haven't made up my mind yet.

Option 1: No hedge on Roy or TJ, big hedge on Pena, and if the parlay is still alive a big hedge on Over 0,5 on Lesnar/Hunt.

Option 2: Heding all the fights one by one. I haven't put much thought into the amount on the possible hedges though.

I've never wanted fights to get cancelled as much as I want these fights to get cancelled.

Any advice for a fellow degen on how you would handle this situation?

wow, that's impressive dude. Let me think about this.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Impossible to hedge that unless you got a retardedly big bank. Good luck though. I wonder how they'll pay that out if you do win.

I think you could win but the Lesnar/Hunt fight should be a scary proposition. Every second ticking could mean a second closer to a heart attack. And then you got hospital bills from the anxiety attack.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Aren't both guys super aggressive ? Shouldn't that mean a finish?
@Joseph Budden why you playing the over ? I ask cuz I don't know anything about Dileno other than his debut which I was probably not even paying attention.

The only options I see for a finish are Dileno by gulliotine or Birchak via Dileno having pretty bad defense standing. Other than the gulliotine Dileno kind of just likes to blanket guys and doesn't have much else to threaten with on the mat. Birchak has been training with 10th Planet and I feel you HAVE to have Dileno's gulliotine scouted. He has soo many wins by it and goes for it in just about every fight.

I don't think Birchak hits hard enough to finish Dileno, who has a hell of a chin. Willing to take my chances on the -190 price. Should be a really fun fight which always makes things more risky, but I like the chances of this going to the cards.

 

[VandelayIndstry]

Regarding the Mohamed-Jouban and Pyle-Mina fights.

I'm staying away from the Mo-Jouban fight now that we know Mo is fighting through ramadan. I would have been all over him as a slight-moderate dog prior to this information. He has shown great tdd and ability to establish range and keep it. He was perfect in that regard during the Carl fight. Didn't allow Carl to clinch up at all. He seems to have polished striking (mainly boxing) and good cardio. However some concerns...his bjj is largely unknown, he will be significantly smaller then Jo, first time octagon jitters are a posibility, how is his training for this fight? (during religious holiday, probably not traveling to Roufus for this camp, short notice, etc.). If anything, I will probably be playing Jouban if he becomes a slight-moderate dog.

Mina has shown effective striking and power in his UFC fights. He has signifcant experinece in both BJJ and Judo having a high ranking in both. This has not been shown during his two fights tho as he prefers to stand and bang. Don't believe he has even attempted a takedown yet. Cardio was piss poor in the Sexyama fight as well. Not sure if I wholly attribute that towards attempting to finish Sexyama either as he didn't go all out for an extended period of time trying to attain the stoppage. Pyle on the other hand has legitimate chin issues, especially early in the fight. His defense is subpar in that he backs up in straight lines and his chin is left exposed. I do like his experience and diversity to overcome mina. If Pyle had shown more of a propensity to shoot for takedowns I would definitely bet him, but at his current odds of a pickem, I will hold off.

 

[vkram]

This dude is fasting during fight camp? OK maybe i'll rethink playing him. Thats a bit much.

I'm not sure but I wouldn't be surprised if he can make an exception being an athlete and delay fasting until after the fight.

 

[Joseph Budden]

 

[EzFlyer]

Is it a worry at all that Belal is fasting for Ramadan now? The Parting Shot podcast guys mentioned it, and remember this is a short notice bout. I believe fasting means he can't eat or even drink until after nightfall for the whole month of June 5th through July 5th, unless I'm mistaken by what that means. That's only two days before his fight on July 7th.

I knew/know nothing about this.

 

[danareem]

jouban now the dog +115