UFN 90 - RDA vs Alvarez - Las Vegas

[kenCs]

Is it a worry at all that Belal is fasting for Ramadan now? The Parting Shot podcast guys mentioned it, and remember this is a short notice bout. I believe fasting means he can't eat or even drink until after nightfall for the whole month of June 5th through July 5th, unless I'm mistaken by what that means. That's only two days before his fight on July 7th.

Ramadan is really taxing. No energy for the day and few hours refeeding. All this while in camp? This guy must be Superman. There is a reason Khabib doesn't fight or train hard during Ramdan.

 

[kenCs]

Belal decision would of been great but I have a feeling Jouban is gonna be the dog and Ill take his ML and dec lines. Many a muslim fighter would never fight in Ramadan.

 

[edole]

I am going to wait to hear from Belal about the situation before jumping to conclusions.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Belal -155
Jouban +115

Assuming you have props available to you, I don't see why anyone would play Belal's ML. The o2.5 at -170 would then be the better play. I think his decision is where it's at. Jouban has a good chin and Belal likes to stick and move. If there was a finish I'd think it's because Jouban got a hold of him with some knees and elbows.

As far as the fasting goes, he mentioned that he has a strong will and indeed is fasting from sun up to sun down for this camp. He said he's done it once before in his pro debut without any issues.

Here is the excerpt from BE.com

“I’m partaking in [Ramadan] right now and I don’t think it’ll affect the way I train because I think it just helps me mentally and I think it just makes me stronger mentally, the fact that I’m able to train during Ramadan while I’m fasting,” Muhammad told BloodyElbow.com’s The MMA Circus. “I’m still going hard during that whole time. It’s a holy month, so I’m not messing around doing anything crazy or anything when I’m out there to train. So it’s more so that I’m more concentrated on religion and now I’m more concentrated on the fight. Clear mindset now, this whole month. So I think it’ll actually help me a lot better.

“I don’t think [training will] affect my religion. I’m still practicing it pretty strongly. I don’t really stay a lot heavier, I’m like a lighter welterweight. So the weight cut isn’t going to affect me in any way. And for me, I’m strong enough that I can train the whole month during Ramadan anyway, because I usually do regardless. But [training] doesn’t affect me in any way of interrupting me with my religion or practices or anything like that. I can still train and practice at the same time.”

 

[Joseph Budden]

Hmmm. Prob a game time decision, and as it stands do agree with RL the o2.5 at -170 seems like the best play and what i'll be one.

 

[null]

I am going to wait to hear from Belal about the situation before jumping to conclusions.

He discusses it here, he says that he's "training on fumes" from the meals he eats the night before. He tries to spin it that it makes him stronger, but this can't be ideal. Listen about ~115 minutes in.

 

[null]

Looking at the rest of this card and the next two cards I'm trying to decide if my degenerate ass is really going to bet all 37 friggin' fights over three days with at least half of these bouts- especially on the first two cards- being pretty wide open to anything happening and going either way.

 

[kenCs]

He discusses it here, he says that he's "training on fumes" from the meals he eats the night before. He tries to spin it that it makes him stronger, but this can't be ideal. Listen about ~115 minutes in.

Anyone who has done any intermittent fasting for bodybduilding or any sport or to just try it out knows that by the first week, you have considerable drop in strength, and energy. By the end of 30 days, im sure he is gonna feel like jelly in the legs. Less water in the body means more likelyhood of being stopped in the fight. The over seems tempting but when you are fasting, you're already losing water weight and then cutting afterwards? Holy shit. I doubt he is gonna be there fully come fight night. Imma play Jouban ITD even though this fight screams decision.

 

[edole]

Looking at the rest of this card and the next two cards I'm trying to decide if my degenerate ass is really going to bet all 37 friggin' fights over three days with at least half of these bouts- especially on the first two cards- being pretty wide open to anything happening and going either way.

here's what Im thinking -- on any standard ufc card, maybe something like 1/3 underdogs win? Totally generalizing an average there.

With 3 cards in 3 days, we are looking at approx 35 fights. Let's say roughly 12 underdogs win. I want to find my favorite underdogs on all 3 cards and round robin parlay them and play them straight -- hoping to get hood rich.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

Jerrod Sanders should have a huge wrestling advantage over Felipe arrantes.

Likely cardio advantage as well

I like Sanders and the over

POSSSSSSIBLY a stab on Lopes -- need to see more.

I'll take sanders all day at dog odds with his wrestling grappling and cardio.

Hi guys!

I placed a 13$ 12 team parlay(8/12 already hit) with a possible 65717$ pay out!

I am usually against hedging but this would be my biggest win ever and a significant cash out for me outside of betting as well, so I am nervous about the play even though I really liked some of these plays a lot more before the hail marry got a real chance of hitting.

Nevertheless, I've got Roy Nelson ITD, TJ Dillashaw, Cat Zingano and Lesnar/Hunt UNDER 0,5 rounds(150 seconds) left to cash in on the parlay.

Right now I am thinking about two ways to go about this but am open to hear your suggestions as well as I haven't made up my mind yet.

Option 1: No hedge on Roy or TJ, big hedge on Pena, and if the parlay is still alive a big hedge on Over 0,5 on Lesnar/Hunt.

Option 2: Heding all the fights one by one. I haven't put much thought into the amount on the possible hedges though.

I've never wanted fights to get cancelled as much as I want these fights to get cancelled.

Any advice for a fellow degen on how you would handle this situation?

I would hedge the over on the Brock fight and leave the rest

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Is anyone super familiar with Lukasz Sajewski?

I'm not sure what type of fighter he is by quickly looking over at his records he has some submissions and a couple of armbars so I assume he's mainly a grappling based fighter?

Trading submissions with someone as dangerous as Burns on the ground would likely end in a finish, no?

Burns striking needs a lot of work if he wants to round out his skills but how is Saj's striking? Can he perform a striking clinic on Burns and keep the fight standing? Can he perform that type of fight? I've seen his fight against Hein and I'm not sure what to make of his skills. There's not much on YouTube that I can get out of either...

 

[Sham5916910]

Is anyone super familiar with Lukasz Sajewski?

I'm not sure what type of fighter he is by quickly looking over at his records he has some submissions and a couple of armbars so I assume he's mainly a grappling based fighter?

Trading submissions with someone as dangerous as Burns on the ground would likely end in a finish, no?

Burns striking needs a lot of work if he wants to round out his skills but how is Saj's striking? Can he perform a striking clinic on Burns and keep the fight standing? Can he perform that type of fight? I've seen his fight against Hein and I'm not sure what to make of his skills. There's not much on YouTube that I can get out of either...

I've only seen the Hein fight but going by that fight I'd say Saj is your typical tough, grinding type Polish fighter who doesn't really excel anywhere. Can Burns get this to the mat is the question. I think on the feet it will be pretty close but I think Burns will be able to take Saj down and dominate from there. I can't bet Burns as i would have needed to see a few more Saj fights to get a thorough feeling on his skill set but that's my observation from the Hein fight.

 

[Kaius]

Any luck finding video of Muhammad fights? I barely managed to find last round of the Kamaka fight + Curtis..

 

[Sham5916910]

Very tempted by Duffy + Burns @ evens.

 

[VandelayIndstry]

T

Any luck finding video of Muhammad fights? I barely managed to find last round of the Kamaka fight + Curtis..

His last two titan fights are on fight pass.

 

[VandelayIndstry]

I like Sanders at plus odds as well. Arantes is a finisher though so Im worried he will catch Sanders with a shot, submission, or sweep at some point and finish the fight.

 

[EzFlyer]

i sprinkled some on makdessi -185 (small). i know baghdad has the height/reach edge, but i think makdessi is more accurate and is just much more polished of an mma fighter at this stage. not proud of this bet, mind you. just sharing.

 

[edole]

i sprinkled some on makdessi -185 (small). i know baghdad has the height/reach edge, but i think makdessi is more accurate and is just much more polished of an mma fighter at this stage. not proud of this bet, mind you. just sharing.

Makdessi is also much more active on the feet from what I can tell.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Looking at the rest of this card and the next two cards I'm trying to decide if my degenerate ass is really going to bet all 37 friggin' fights over three days with at least half of these bouts- especially on the first two cards- being pretty wide open to anything happening and going either way.

I hear you. I started making a spreadsheet of all 3 events and I am putting in there picks from various sources to try and reach a consensus on some fights. I feel there are so many close fights on these cards too.

 

[LEMONZEST]

i sprinkled some on makdessi -185 (small). i know baghdad has the height/reach edge, but i think makdessi is more accurate and is just much more polished of an mma fighter at this stage. not proud of this bet, mind you. just sharing.

I feel like Makdessi always has the height disadavantage which hurts him. Also I am pretty concerned about his jaw....that can break at any moment...again.

I really liked Makdessi at the start of his career, always nice seeing a new prospect out of TriStar but he has kinda underwhelmed me. Don't get me wrong he is very skilled with good standup but seems to somehow end up losing too often.