UFN 91 - Lineker vs McDonald - South Dakota

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when you have someone who hits as hard as boetsch there's never a safe play, but i do think samman is capable of staying at kicking range and throttling boetsch for 3 rounds.

brad tavares was dominating boetsch at range and in the clinch. i don't think boetsch landed a single strike until the ko.
 
piglord said:
when you have someone who hits as hard as boetsch there's never a safe play, but i do think samman is capable of staying at kicking range and throttling boetsch for 3 rounds.

brad tavares was dominating boetsch at range and in the clinch. i don't think boetsch landed a single strike until the ko.
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Brad Tavares whole game is based off dictating the outside range, and he's fairly good at it. Samman seems lost, like he's not sure what he wants to do when he fights. I don't trust him at all to stick to the path of least resistance.

Once Boetsch gets inside, Samman is in trouble imo. He looks a lot more athletic than he is, he's not very physical. Boetsch will likely be the better clinch fighter, and probably the better wrestler. I like Boetsh at his odds, I'd say betting someone as green as Samman vs a veteran at current prices is not wise, well see
 
Samman doesn't seem like a guy that would be okay just staying put at range to win a fight. Isn't he more of a full throttle aggression type of fighter
 
Tavares barbarian gives me nightmares still cant believe barbarian won that. Thats prob a good reason not to bet samman as bad as barbarian is. Hell i might even just lb this show. Need to watch Mayday Lineker footage but only option im considering is ferg + lineker.
 
Got to agree with jb, so hard to trust Samman as a fighter and tim can be a beast at times.
 
My most confident picks of the three nights were Duffy and Li with Jialiang close third.


My most confident picks here are Tony and Lineker.
Tony is champ material and his opponent has been beating fighters with losing records and is coming in on short notice. MacDonald didnt look good coming in from a long break and was lucky he got the sub. He doesn't have a better chin than Lineker, doesn't have more power and frankly, I still think he hasn't got that ring rust off him completely.

I hate betting on Tim Boetsch but no way should Samman be in the -200 range. WTF. I might just hit Boetsch for a little bit (even though I fucking hate it).

Tony + Lineker is the way to go here. Pick good spots if you can via LB.
 
Thing is Tony's line sitting at 1.13, you would have to go pretty heavy on that 2 man parlay to make any decent come back?

Perhaps Mcdonald ko/sub hedge

Pretty terrible card but good for live betting perhaps.
 
There will be lots of good lb opportunities im sure. The books wont have capped all these fights accurately too many unknowns. Will review mayday lineker but if my brain agrees with my gut going big on ferg + lineker and looking to hit some sweet lb spots. Need to make up for huntgate.
 
Ukram said:
Thing is Tony's line sitting at 1.13, you would have to go pretty heavy on that 2 man parlay to make any decent come back?

Perhaps Mcdonald ko/sub hedge

Pretty terrible card but good for live betting perhaps.
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On BV £1k netted you £750
 
Ukram said:
Thing is Tony's line sitting at 1.13, you would have to go pretty heavy on that 2 man parlay to make any decent come back?

Perhaps Mcdonald ko/sub hedge

Pretty terrible card but good for live betting perhaps.
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At -134 on betVictor. Imma be all over it.
 
Sham5916910 said:
On BV £1k netted you £750
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Yeah already had 1K lined up as typing lol

sigh @ royhuntgate am just glad its in the past and done with the other 2 events for july are solid cards however, all names are instantly recognizable at least.
 
Thinking about just betting Smolka vs Nguyen ends itd, but Idk. Even that seems risky, probably is best just to livebet it. Two young guys who seemingly improve a ton every fight. Makes it hard to grasp how it will play out.
 
Betting on HWs and WMMA is just asking for your shit to be pushed in.

Valarie, Hunt, Roy, Cat, Meisha etc. Dog or pass may be the mantra for these two divisions unless there is a huge gap, but fuck I thought Valarie had a huge skill gap against Calderwood, thought no way Brock could survive, thought Zingano tosses Pena about, and thought Meisha could out cardio Nunes. So lucky I only lost big with Val.
 
kenCs said:
Yeah, its a pretty hard read. Smolka has the grappling edge I assume? Maybe Ben has the power? LB for me and not gonna force it.
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Definitely power edge to Ben, but idk about the grappling. Should be Smolka but Ben seems slick and Smolkas wrestling is a big question mark.

Also gonna hold off for now til I can watch some tape, but i think I might like Lopez at -110. Yahya is horrible and gasses bad, so as long as Lopez seems fairly legit (think I only saw his last fight but don't remember) I'll take a shot
 
I studied smolka hard when i hammered him against paddy. He probably has grappling edge here but we havent really seen much of Nyugens ground game so thats not a given. Smolka is almost impossible to hold down for long and is very confident giving his back to get back up he is superb at doing this and it works for him. Nyugen defo has power edge and id imagine will want to keep it standing. Smolka showed good wrestling offence against Seery but Nyugen seems to have good tdd. This seems like grappler vs striker. Smolka getting outstruck by Richie Vas until he landed sweet chin music is a big concern. Lb only for me but i think i might lean Nyugen.
 
Cant see how I'm not betting Lineker really big here.
 
kenCs said:
Betting on HWs and WMMA is just asking for your shit to be pushed in.

Valarie, Hunt, Roy, Cat, Meisha etc. Dog or pass may be the mantra for these two divisions unless there is a huge gap, but fuck I thought Valarie had a huge skill gap against Calderwood, thought no way Brock could survive, thought Zingano tosses Pena about, and thought Meisha could out cardio Nunes. So lucky I only lost big with Val.
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Brock repeatedly taking Hunt down and Nunes having a strong first round against Meisha were two very likely scenarios. Hell, if Meisha didnt have her nose broken, she could have very well weathered the storm and made a stong push in later rounds. They didnt go your (our) way this time, but that's just variance. no need to panic
 
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