something worth noting, kawajiri has only lost to guys with high level wrestling (alvarez, melendez, guida, bermudez) in recent years. in the melendez fight (strikeforce), kawajiri wasn't able to get the fight to the ground and melendez boxed his face off with the KO coming straight after a sprawl.
cub swanson has had problems with wrestlers. he was dominating ricardo lamas on the feet before he got too wild, then got taken down and subbed. frankie edgar basically took swanson down at will. swanson loves to throw heat but he's going to have to be really composed here if he doesn't want to end up on his back. logic suggests swanson can win with superior striking accuracy, speed (this is probably fastest guy in the division versus slowest) and footwork, but swanson's eagerness to scrap is a real concern.
if kawajiri gets a hold of swanson, i can see him getting dragged to the mat. kawajiri is definitely slowing down at age 38 but he's still ridiculously strong. i do favour swanson here but can't play him if he's juiced, since kawajiri has a clear path to victory (possibly sub but more likely lnp).
