UFN 92 - Caceres vs Rodriguez - Utah

[robbiedawg]

Thoughts on Ponz/Cummings? def leaning Cummings here

Not watched tape yet but Ponz murdered McGee who's also a wrestler, but Cummings is a better wrestler and has never been KO'd. It's a tough one

 

[iGnP]

Not watched tape yet but Ponz murdered McGee who's also a wrestler, but Cummings is a better wrestler and has never been KO'd. It's a tough one

very true but its not like Ponz has displayed some godly TDD. he was taken down twice by Stahl, twice by Strickland, and five times against LaFlare (this is ufc.com capping, havent watched tape yet). ever since Cummings loss to Gunnar, he's looked pretty good

 

[piglord]

very true but its not like Ponz has displayed some godly TDD. he was taken down twice by Stahl, twice by Strickland, and five times against LaFlare (this is ufc.com capping, havent watched tape yet). ever since Cummings loss to Gunnar, he's looked pretty good

the court/ponz fight was highly competitive until court shot a very telegraphed td and got tagged. zak won't do something like that.

you could compare cummings to laflare, who beat ponz decisively (very strong, fast, wrestling background, great athlete, pushes a pace for 3 rounds, solid striking).

i strongly lean cummings here. apparently he caught an injury in the gunnar nelson fight which lead to the finish, other than that he's looked great.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Really no footage of Cummings to help
Me grasp that fight. Ponz WILL put him on the back foot at some point. The dude just hits too damn hard, has superior boxing technique, and doesn't let clean shots defer him. Cummings probably hits harder than Court? So that's a plus for him. Idk if I'm convinced he can hold Ponz down who seems to be getting better and better at getting up, but could happen and he can probably score takedowns at the least. But until I see how Cummings does when he's forced outside the black lines, I can't get behind him. Ponz is a different beast than the dudes he's faced so far. Plus he comes from a vastly superior camp with ATT. Cummings trains out of a no name gym iirc, and so did most of UFC opponents he's beaten (Dalby, Steele, and pretty sure Cabral)

 

[iGnP]

Really no footage of Cummings to help
Me grasp that fight. Ponz WILL put him on the back foot at some point. The dude just hits too damn hard, has superior boxing technique, and doesn't let clean shots defer him. Cummings probably hits harder than Court? So that's a plus for him. Idk if I'm convinced he can hold Ponz down who seems to be getting better and better at getting up, but could happen and he can probably score takedowns at the least. But until I see how Cummings does when he's forced outside the black lines, I can't get behind him. Ponz is a different beast than the dudes he's faced so far. Plus he comes from a vastly superior camp with ATT. Cummings trains out of a no name gym iirc, and so did most of UFC opponents he's beaten (Dalby, Steele, and pretty sure Cabral)

striker vs grappler- grappler as a dog and the striker has shown some weakness to being taken down. must bet imo

 

[Joseph Budden]

striker vs grappler- grappler as a dog and the striker has shown some weakness to being taken down. must bet imo

Idk if it's that simple. Who has Cummings really grappled? I think undersized Cabral? Dalby was able to get up from bottom after getting dropped in the first, I remember that, pretty sure Cummings mainly struck with him after that?

Ponz seemed much better after getting taken down by Stahl than in the Laflare and Strickland fights, and he has a wealth of Zak Cummings-esque guys to spar at ATT.

 

[iGnP]

Idk if it's that simple. Who has Cummings really grappled? I think undersized Cabral? Dalby was able to get up from bottom after getting dropped in the first, I remember that, pretty sure Cummings mainly struck with him after that?

Ponz seemed much better after getting taken down by Stahl than in the Laflare and Strickland fights, and he has a wealth of Zak Cummings-esque guys to spar at ATT.

let me review some tape before i challenge you to a sig bet

 

[Sham5916910]

I haven't watched any tape to refresh my mind but I am not comfortable paying almost -200 on Ponz or using him as parlay fodder. I think this should be a pick 'em. Ponz has looked really good in his last three wins fights, but he is very hittable. I remember McGee was landing on him for the first two mins or so until Ponz found his range. Anyhow, Ponz's tdd is decent but his get ups are excellent. I think Cummings will be happy standing, but if he does try and wrestle i cannot see him being able to keep Ponz down. For me this fight comes down to who wins the standup battle.

At dog odds I think the value is on Cummings, and i will be especially interested in Cummings' dec line as i dont see him stopping Ponz. Live bet fight for me but based on value i'd be on Cummings if I had to. As good as Ponz is he is just too hittable, and Cummings has never been KO'd so he clearly has a hell of a chin.

 

[Sham5916910]

something worth noting, kawajiri has only lost to guys with high level wrestling (alvarez, melendez, guida, bermudez) in recent years. in the melendez fight (strikeforce), kawajiri wasn't able to get the fight to the ground and melendez boxed his face off with the KO coming straight after a sprawl.

cub swanson has had problems with wrestlers. he was dominating ricardo lamas on the feet before he got too wild, then got taken down and subbed. frankie edgar basically took swanson down at will. swanson loves to throw heat but he's going to have to be really composed here if he doesn't want to end up on his back. logic suggests swanson can win with superior striking accuracy, speed (this is probably fastest guy in the division versus slowest) and footwork, but swanson's eagerness to scrap is a real concern.

if kawajiri gets a hold of swanson, i can see him getting dragged to the mat. kawajiri is definitely slowing down at age 38 but he's still ridiculously strong. i do favour swanson here but can't play him if he's juiced, since kawajiri has a clear path to victory (possibly sub but more likely lnp).

All valid points. But Kawajiri has never fought a striker as high level as Swanson. Knowing Cub is an elite striker may well make Kawa hesitant to close the gap for his takedowns. I can't help but fade fighters with Kawa's style in 2016 lnp in my eyes just doesn't work anymore unless you are facing a low level fighter. Another factor to consider is the recent change in judging. If Kawa puts his head in Swanson's crotch for four mins of a round and Swanson lands some good offence in the other minute the judges are far more likely to award the decision to Cub. Will rewatch the Dias fight as he is as big and strong a 145lb fighter as you will find, but bit disappointing to read Dias only attempted one takedown! Here's hoping that was due to Cub's footwork.

 

[Sham5916910]

I just watched Bermudez Kawa and confidence increase in Bermudez and Cub.

I really rate Bermudez i bet on him to beat Kawa and remember questioning his gameplan after r1 but he out-leached the leach very easily. He brings awesome pressure and has cardio for days i am very confident he is going to wear Jason down and get a dominant dec or late stoppage.

Kawa looked very uncomfortable on the feet against Bermudez. There wasn't much standup action as Bermudez kept clinching up but from what there was Bermudez had Kawa on the back foot and landed some big shots. Putting a wrestler on the back foot makes it very difficult for them to shoot and subsequently Kawa only initiated one takedown attempt the whole fight (the takedowns Kawa landed were from Bermudez clinching up with him in the first place clearly something Cub will avoid at all costs). I can only imagine Kawa will look even more uncomfortable on the feet facing the best striker he has fought, and Jackson gameplan will surely be for Cub to use his excellent footwork and keep on the front foot. Based on how easy Bermudez hit him and the power Cub brings I can see him stopping Kawa too. He does need to make sure he doesn't chase the knock out tho as he doesn't want to get overzealous and therefore taken down. It helps having someone like Jackson in your corner for fights like these. The gameplan here is very important and no fighters seem to follow a gameplan as well as Jackon's mob.

Need to watch Cub Dias and will rewatch Kawa Siver too. I know Kawa wrestled Siver i bet on Siver there but Siver's standup is a notch or two below Cub's and his footwork is several notches below so not sure how much i can glean from that fight.

 

[mkess101]

All valid points. But Kawajiri has never fought a striker as high level as Swanson. Knowing Cub is an elite striker may well make Kawa hesitant to close the gap for his takedowns. I can't help but fade fighters with Kawa's style in 2016 lnp in my eyes just doesn't work anymore unless you are facing a low level fighter. Another factor to consider is the recent change in judging. If Kawa puts his head in Swanson's crotch for four mins of a round and Swanson lands some good offence in the other minute the judges are far more likely to award the decision to Cub. Will rewatch the Dias fight as he is as big and strong a 145lb fighter as you will find, but bit disappointing to read Dias only attempted one takedown! Here's hoping that was due to Cub's footwork.

*Or unless you're name is Demian Maia. (Okay Maia isn't lnp but he uses a predictable TD heavy style and has no interest in striking at all. People just can't stop it, even good fighters)

 

[mkess101]

Ponz/Cummings:

Ponz KO mabye and Cummings dec depending on odds? Then possibly look to LB Ponz if the fight is competitive and all standing and Ponz odds aren't too steep? Might be the way to play it.

 

[Sham5916910]

*Or unless you're name is Demian Maia. (Okay Maia isn't lnp but he uses a predictable TD heavy style and has no interest in striking at all. People just can't stop it, even good fighters)

Yeah like you say i wouldn't class Maia as lnp he's always improving position hunting for subs.

 

[Sham5916910]

Watched Cub Dias. Main take away point is Cub's footwork when backed up. Always circles off before he is near the cage, doesn't back up in a straight line. Great habit to have when facing Kawa. Cub needs lots of forward pressure and this fight is his.

 

[EzFlyer]

Ez off topic and pls delete but can we get an olympics thread?

Go ahead make one

 

[EzFlyer]

Man, a year ago I would smash leites -190 so hard vs camozzi

I'm not saying I'll bet camozzi or not but he absolutely looks like he's peaking. His performance/form vs Miranda was the best of his career.

Leites looked like he was stuck in the mud vs moose. Idk if this is a usada thing, a matchup thing or just a bad night... but if it's the start of a decline, I wouldn't be too surprised...

Mind you, I thought he beat bisping the prior fight... Even tho he looked a little slow at times...

That over is still super good to me. Like I said earlier, 0 ko losses in 65 combined fights .. unless leites gets him down and gets a dominant position for a sub... This over is gonna hit.

 

[piglord]

I just watched Bermudez Kawa and confidence increase in Bermudez and Cub.

I really rate Bermudez i bet on him to beat Kawa and remember questioning his gameplan after r1 but he out-leached the leach very easily. He brings awesome pressure and has cardio for days i am very confident he is going to wear Jason down and get a dominant dec or late stoppage.

Kawa looked very uncomfortable on the feet against Bermudez. There wasn't much standup action as Bermudez kept clinching up but from what there was Bermudez had Kawa on the back foot and landed some big shots. Putting a wrestler on the back foot makes it very difficult for them to shoot and subsequently Kawa only initiated one takedown attempt the whole fight (the takedowns Kawa landed were from Bermudez clinching up with him in the first place clearly something Cub will avoid at all costs). I can only imagine Kawa will look even more uncomfortable on the feet facing the best striker he has fought, and Jackson gameplan will surely be for Cub to use his excellent footwork and keep on the front foot. Based on how easy Bermudez hit him and the power Cub brings I can see him stopping Kawa too. He does need to make sure he doesn't chase the knock out tho as he doesn't want to get overzealous and therefore taken down. It helps having someone like Jackson in your corner for fights like these. The gameplan here is very important and no fighters seem to follow a gameplan as well as Jackon's mob.

Need to watch Cub Dias and will rewatch Kawa Siver too. I know Kawa wrestled Siver i bet on Siver there but Siver's standup is a notch or two below Cub's and his footwork is several notches below so not sure how much i can glean from that fight.

worth noting that siver threw a tonne of kicks in that fight, which kawa caught and lead to takedowns. obviously cub will take a boxing approach which will be ideal against kawa. all logical signs point to cub here but something feels off to me.

 

[waiguoren]

Man, a year ago I would smash leites -190 so hard vs camozzi

I'm not saying I'll bet camozzi or not but he absolutely looks like he's peaking. His performance/form vs Miranda was the best of his career.

Leites looked like he was stuck in the mud vs moose. Idk if this is a usada thing, a matchup thing or just a bad night... but if it's the start of a decline, I wouldn't be too surprised...

I was so confused to see people betting Leites vs. Mousasi. It's such a nightmare matchup for Leites.

 

[piglord]

Man, a year ago I would smash leites -190 so hard vs camozzi

I'm not saying I'll bet camozzi or not but he absolutely looks like he's peaking. His performance/form vs Miranda was the best of his career.

Leites looked like he was stuck in the mud vs moose. Idk if this is a usada thing, a matchup thing or just a bad night... but if it's the start of a decline, I wouldn't be too surprised...

Mind you, I thought he beat bisping the prior fight... Even tho he looked a little slow at times...

That over is still super good to me. Like I said earlier, 0 ko losses in 65 combined fights .. unless leites gets him down and gets a dominant position for a sub... This over is gonna hit.

i wouldn't be surprised if usada was a factor. in the bisping fight he was chasing bisping around the cage landing power shots for 25 mins straight like juiced rda. i know mous was a terrible match up but he looked far less explosive.

i really favour camozzi here. think it will be a stand and bang fight in the center of the cage. leites doesn't have good takedowns and i can see him getting punished in the clinch if he ends up there. i think leites will more likely look for huge shots which i think camozzi will be able to defend and land his own. i can actually see camozzi getting a knockout here.

 

[Sham5916910]

worth noting that siver threw a tonne of kicks in that fight, which kawa caught and lead to takedowns. obviously cub will take a boxing approach which will be ideal against kawa. all logical signs point to cub here but something feels off to me.

Cool going to watch it in a bit.