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UFN 93 - Barnett vs Arlovski - Germany

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Aug 26, 2016.

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  1. Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    ITS ALMOST TIME FOR SOME FIGHTS LETS GOOO
     
  2. Xuh Silver Belt

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    disagree I think the opposite, she's a tiny undersized submission fighter with no wrestling vs a wrestler, if anything Macedo SUB is the better flyer option IMO and not far away @ 7.0ish
     
  3. Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    Wtf the first fight is Khabilov now?? Lol a -450 smh can't even bet the first fukin fight.

    Might just throw Khabilov in a 2 man parlay with the second fight.
     
  4. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Not just a submission fighter. She has a black belt in TKD and a brown belt in Karate (dunno which style). She has that nice high kick KO that someone posted a few pages back.
     
  5. Xuh Silver Belt

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    True but I'd be very surprised if she wins by KO here (and annoyed, if I do end up betting a little on her by sub :p). Different level of comp & size of opponent, etc
     
  6. edhan Green Belt

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    Wiki says the arena seats 16k for concerts so I would assume it's the big cage. I think it's fair to say that small cage is used in venues that seat 10k or less?
     
  7. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Yeah I would be surprised too but I think she could dance around to a decision if that's her gameplan. Not likely at all but still possible enough for me to put a small bet on that +700 line. AES has no footwork and is kinda slow so.
     
  8. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Khabilov will throw him around for 3 rounds. And silvas standup is not great saggo outstruck him in r3
     
  9. weedreference Green Belt

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    Yes, I agree. There's no need to tell me why a -400 favorite is likely to win.

    The topic of interest was each fighter's finishability. I just thought it was interesting that in a true battle to the death you might have to cap Silva as the favorite in this spot. It shows how much you have to consider the rules and judging criteria in order to cap properly, regardless of skill level..
     
  10. plekz Brown Belt

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    in a fight to the death khabilov throws silva to the ground once, and then he'd proceed to stomp on silvas head until there was nothing left of it.
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    I actually have the opposite. Pretty sure this goes 3
     
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Don't force bets, prices matter.
     
  13. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Hey guys, sorry that I haven't been ITT to participate much lately but I've been busy. I will try and contribute more often now that I'm having some free time, but I have been killing lately — MMAGamblingTips.cappertek.com — racking up +46.65 units over the last 30 days with an unbelievable +58.09% ROI to boot! That said, with the most watered down bloated corpse of a roster fighting today it will probably dwindle down to nothing given the dearth of talent and accountability in the participants. So I'm keeping the action at a minimum but I have broken down a few fights for a friend and figured I would share them with my old homies .

    If any of you need another fight broken down let me know and I will try to give a couple sentences as to what my thoughts are.

    Silva vs. Khabilov


    I agree that Silva and Rustam should probably go over, but also feel very confident that Rustam will get the victory — as he will have every conceivable advantage in the fight — save possibly for technical striking. However, with Rustam's speed and grappling, this will likely offset any advantage that Leandro might have on the feet. I believe that Rustam has the necessary tools to dictate were the fight takes place. As such, it is highly probable that the Russian fighter will push Silva into the cage and likely toss him on his head. I know that Silva is a BJJ black belt and all, but I worry

    that Rustam will use that nasty Sambo to toss him on his head and then grab something in a scramble. All told, the OVER is the probably the wisest choice when betting this bout is concerned — it will probably cash — but Jesus Christ is it pricey! At -280 for the OVER you are really hoping that lightning doesn't strike for 12 min 31 sec of a fight! Risky! At that price it's almost better to take a pass if you don't believe either man has above a 51% chance of winning. Because I like action think Khabilov will win a decision, I am going to put a flier on his DEC prop which will hover around -120 or so.


    Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Valerie Macedo

    At FIRST I also thought that Ashlee Evans-Smith was a terrific piece to a two team parlay for the following reasons: She is fighting against a real novice in Veronica Macedo who is only 20 years old without having competed against any notable opposition whatsoever. In fact, the last three of Domergue's opponents have a combined record of 5-9 which is an insult to tomato cans worldwide. In total Valeries five opponents are a come by and 8-15 overall. Meanwhile, Evans-Smith is 4-1 but has shared the cage with the likes of elite BW's Raquel Pennington and Marion Reneau, the latter whom she holds a victory over. Additionally Smith has a win against the notoriously infamous Fallon Fox who AEM polished off in the third round of their controversial fight. What's more, Ashlee will have a physical edge given the fact that she is a true 135 lbs while Macedo has fought as low as 115 pounds. In addition, AEM will have a 5 inch height advantage (5'8" to 5'3") which is quite significant. These physical assets are magnified much more when the American will already enjoy a major edge in octagon of experience and more importantly strength of schedule.

    Size and octagon experience aside, the one area that Macedo may be able to show superiority over Evans-Smith is the striking department. Indeed, Macedo should have a speed and technical advantage over the more rudimentary skill set Evans will bring to the cage. Specifically, Macedo has a vaulted Taekwondo background and with a plethora of unorthodox spinning techniques and heavy kicks to all levels, Macedo's speed, dexterity and all around unpredictability will be most beneficial to her and could potentially find her way to an upset and standing with a case of "I told you so permagrin" as she talks to Joe Rogan in the winners circle.

    Macedo has whipping leg kicks that she blisters her opponents with at all levels including fight ending power with one strike. What's more, her unkempt brawling that is interspersed with her flashy — and more technical kicking attack — confuses her opposition which allow the MMA neophyte to dictate the terms via controlled chaos. The major drawback to this style of fighting is that Macedo's reckless assault leaves her vulnerable to the takedown. What has been been a minor irritation on the regional circuit will become a outright gunshot wound to the gut should she continue to play fast and loose like that in the UFC.

    Lastly, though the Venezuelan is at her best on the feet utilizing her Taekwondo tactics, it should be noted that the 20-year-old octagon newcomer is no slouch on the mat either. In fact, Macedo has trained her grappling extensively at the prestigious Nova Uniao fight camp while successfully competing in the 2016 IBJJF European No Gi Championships and British open respectively. Both events which she was won gold.

    While this could very well be a match up where experience and physicality play the larger role and pick up a victory it could very well go the opposite way. Meaning think Doo ho choi and/or Yair Rodriguez. That is to say, it's possible this is a fight where speed kills and AEM is left looking nonplussed and wondering on the plane ride home what type of storm that was that blew across the octagon like a typhoon and handed her an "L" in spectacular fashion. is currently sitting at +200 as we speak as I write. FYI, Yair Rodriguez was +164 when he fought Charles Rosa. Just a fun fact.

    The size will probably play a major factor in this fight allowing AEM to get the victory but at +165 I do think that Macedo is worth a flier at this price. For all intents and purposes Macedo is the better fighter and after her debut you we will see her fight at her natural 115 pound weight class where I expect that she will pick become a UFC mainstay. The pick Is AEM but no way could I play her as almost a 3-1 favorite.

    Leandro Issa vs. Taylor Lapilus

    In the Leandro Issa vs. Taylor Lapilus match I am riding the underdog here. I believe that Issa should be the favorite at -150 so getting him at +136 is very nice value. While Lapilus is a talented striker who has a marked advantage in the kickboxing department; the fact that he is so vulnerable with his takedown defense pushes me off him and toward Issa. Indeed, Lapilus' TDD is average at best and outright mediocre at worst. This is a fight where the Brazilian should be able to push the Frenchman up against the cage and bring him to the mat and either control two out of three rounds or get the submission. If you look at his resume you will see that Taylor hasn't competed (or defeated) any notable opponent. Getting victories over the likes of Rocky Lee is not impressive and even in that situation Taylor was put on his back. What's more calm, if you go back and watch Lapilus' fight against Perez, you will see how El Goyito consistently took him down and eventually broke him. I believe that Issa will have similar success. I do like the over 1.5 here as well. As the o/u is set at 1.5 with the betting line at -180 I like it to go over. Additionally, I might put a flier on Leandro via submission at +350. Remember, as good as Taylor's striking is, he only has a single knock TKO to his name.
     
  14. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Totally with you on this one my old friend. In a world filled with generic middleweights this is the most middling of middleweights you were ever find. Accordingly, Ianticipate a subpar kickboxing match with tepid exchanges over the course of a protracted coma inducing action. Of course with these two middleweights the word action being utilized in the sentence is an oxymoron.
     
  15. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Coma inducing action? That's a fun fight
     
  16. plekz Brown Belt

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    look guys, barry logged in on his other account
     
  17. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    Lmao.
     
  18. rille31 Brown Belt

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    that hein -3.5 @ +130 was nice, think it hits like 50-55% of the time
     
  19. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    What does that mean Rille?

    Im really hoping hein uses his judo. Bang looks well out of shape compared to past weigh ins and has shit cardio. Hoping for a rnc on a tired bang but yeah dec is most likely.
     
  20. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Lol
     
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