UFN 93 - Barnett vs Arlovski - Germany

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macedo's tdd is terrible, doesn't evans-smith come from a wrestling background?
 
@Oblivian understandable. Im on AA. Barnett's only wins since 2013 are against Mir and Big Country (and against Nandor Guelmino but we can exclude him in the convo), both of whom are 2-6 in the their last eight fights (fights against Barnett included). I can see why you'd favor Barnett stylistically but do you think Barnett is being underpriced here? He's got a couple of red flags, too. I guess what im trying to ask is, what would you cap this fight at?
 
@Oblivian understandable. Im on AA. Barnett's only wins since 2013 are against Mir and Big Country (and against Nandor Guelmino but we can exclude him in the convo), both of whom are 2-6 in the their last eight fights (fights against Barnett included). I can see why you'd favor Barnett stylistically but do you think Barnett is being underpriced here? He's got a couple of red flags, too. I guess what im trying to ask is, what would you cap this fight at?
should be a pick em, unbettbale fight imo
 
Yeah unless i'm really missing something idk why Dalby was a dog. His decision line is a great play. Could be a close fight, but hard not to favor Dalby.
 
If you think its a pick em' fight then wouldn't there be value on Arlovski since he is the underdog?
ehh yeah i guess but it's like the lauzon miller fight, value on miller but just a dodgy fight to bet on, only a tiny edge
 
Rewatched smith-Reneau

Close fight but not sure how one judge scored round 1 for Smith, she was almost koed early and seconds from being unconcious from a mounted gilioutine only to be saved by the bell
 
should be a pick em, unbettbale fight imo
I would personally make AA a small favorite. Already have a unit on him at like +120. Prob won't add more if the price gets better though
 
@Oblivian understandable. Im on AA. Barnett's only wins since 2013 are against Mir and Big Country (and against Nandor Guelmino but we can exclude him in the convo), both of whom are 2-6 in the their last eight fights (fights against Barnett included). I can see why you'd favor Barnett stylistically but do you think Barnett is being underpriced here? He's got a couple of red flags, too. I guess what im trying to ask is, what would you cap this fight at?

I don't feel strongly on this fight, or honestly this entire card, at all. I'd probably cap Barnett closer to -200 though. FWIW, I was the right side in Arlovski's last five fights so it's not like I doubt him in situations a ton. I liked him vs. Browne and Bigfoot where he was a steeper underdog. I just think this is one where he should clearly be the dog because his only real advantage is better technique with his hands. Just my two cents.
 
Can anyone think of a reason not to bet my entire bankroll on Gus by KO +170? Seems BY FAR the most likely outcome. Jan was getting bulldozed a bit by fucking Igor Pokrajac
 
I was leaning Barnett initially but probably just going to play the over. Barnett is good at evading punches and doesnt get tagged often on the feet. I don't see him finishing Arlovski so easily either. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see a AA/Schaub or AA/Mir type of fight.
 
Can anyone think of a reason not to bet my entire bankroll on Gus by KO +170? Seems BY FAR the most likely outcome. Jan was getting bulldozed a bit by fucking Igor Pokrajac

Well there's plenty of reasons not to bet your entire bankroll -- it's MMA after all, anything can happen.

With that being said, I'm going huge on Gus by KO...just not entire bankroll huge.
 
Any idea why Latifi is such a big dog? Was expecting closer to even or perhaps +120, but not +200 ML.

Tempted to go relatively big on him. He showed last fight that he can keep a good pace for 3 rounds, as well as being able to score a ko/tko at any time, especially with Baders chin being cracked badly against Rumble.
 
I'm on the AA train, I think he is way better on the feet and smart enough to stay on the outside and don't let Josh clinch up. Josh hasn't really looked good last years and post USADA-Barnett is not someone I would put money on.

Gus hits like a mofo, but I'm sure he will look to play it safe and not come out guns blazing. He has so much to lose here if he loses. Will still bet it, just not all the bankroll.
 
Can anyone think of a reason not to bet my entire bankroll on Gus by KO +170? Seems BY FAR the most likely outcome. Jan was getting bulldozed a bit by fucking Igor Pokrajac

He probably will win that way but he does have 3 rear naked chokes on his record and may play it safe and decision him.
 
Any idea why Latifi is such a big dog? Was expecting closer to even or perhaps +120, but not +200 ML.

Tempted to go relatively big on him. He showed last fight that he can keep a good pace for 3 rounds, as well as being able to score a ko/tko at any time, especially with Baders chin being cracked badly against Rumble.
Idk about keep a good pace. After round 1 he was noticeably slowed.

Horrible match up for him imo. Barring a first round overhand not much he can do to Bader. Won't score tds, can't outstrike Bader. Stylistic nightmare for him imo
 
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