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UFN 95 - Cyborg vs Lansberg - Brazil

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 15, 2016.

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  1. MMAJay Green Belt

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    !!! Wall of text incoming !!!

    Another busy week. Unfortunately I haven't been able to participate this event either. Alot of value on this card, but I have always had a rough time with the brazil cards. Always something about these events and the hometown advantage :) With that being said, I hate that I have so many leans I want to follow. I will be pretty heavy on this one, but I have to follow my gut.

    Alot of good discussion has been going on, so will just sum up my own thoughts/leans briefly.

    Chagas vs. Silva

    After the line flip you simply have to take a stab at that Silva ml line. Not too confident in it, but with his shape this time around and him focusing on cardio you can't avoid it. Silva has faced better competition all around, and should be the better all around fighter. Chagas is a young beast that have potential to be "prospect worthy". To me it looks like Chagas get too much credit here because of his record and Silvas biggest mistake/fail last time around. If Silva doesn't get too ahead of himself here, he could win this by taking it easy and not chasing the stoppage. He usually find himself in trouble when he overcommit and loses balance because of that. That combined with the go go go stoppage mindset will almost always end in a defeat when he fight opponents at his own level and higher. That being said, I still think that Silvas game is a couple of levels higher than Chagas. He just has to showcase it here.

    1u Silva SU @ +140

    I really do think that Silva is going to try and fight a smart fight, and because of that I had to take a little stab at:

    Silva DEC @ +600

    Patrick vs. Ray

    I see alot of dog potential this event and one that could easily come through (brazil gonna brazil) is Patrick by DEC. The fight has already been breaking down, but the most important thing should be if Patrick is able to TD Ray. If it stays standing I wouldn't be surprised to see Patrick steal a win because of flashy techniques (that probably will miss) and volume combined with the crowd going wild everytime he throws something. Ray is a long way from home for the very first time, fighting another southpaw for the very first time. He has been improving his overall striking and TD defence, but I could easily see him give away the first round before he adjust to the fight.
    Everybody already know that you really have to BEAT a brazil fighter in brazil if you want the judges to be on your side. IMO Ray really has to perform to finish Patrick here and I just don't see it happening if Patrick put out the TD threat early. The TD threat alone could be enough to make Ray hesitate and commit with his striking, so I imagine his output could be lower as well.

    Not enough value on Patrick's ML, but I have to take a stab at his DEC line. This is really the only way I see him winning this anyway.

    1u Patrick DEC @ +250


    Franca vs. Gregor

    Not too much insight on this one, so I will keep it short. Both fighters will probably cancel out each others sub attacks, and I think this will be a grapling/wrestling heavy fight only because of Gregors impressive wrestling background. Alot has been said about his last fights, but he's a beast with good cardio. He trains with Bermudez and has the better (on paper) wrestling background. He needed this UFC debut and even though Franca is a tough matchup, I see him pulling through. Franca was gassing in the Vick fight, and he'll probably gas faster in this one when he has to defend and wrestle from the get go. Franca will win this if he keep the fight at a distance and uses his reach, but I just think Gregors tenacity and control on the fence will be too much for Franca.

    It's hard to win a decision in brazil against a brazilian, but I don't see Gregor winning any other way. Franca has the skillset to avoid getting stopped here, and the judges has to give a dec to Gregor when he control him all three rounds on the ground.
    Therefore:

    0.75u Gregor DEC @ +403


    I have been rambling too much already but damn there is some value to get on those dec lines - Perhaps a nice Round Robin with some of those. I will still end up betting on alot more, but then it will be a much bigger wall of text than it already are.

    Parlay lean:

    Trinaldo/Felder O2.5
    Pepey NO SC
    Cyborg R1


    Round Robin:


    Trinaldo -3,5 @ +210 (They love him, crowd will go crazy and could easily see one of the judges giving the 30-27)
    Formiga DEC @ +125 (Only path to victory for either of these guys)
    Patrick/Ray O2.5 @ 1.741
    Santos/Spicely Wont start R2 @ -136 (5 minutes is a lot of time for Santos to put Spicely away)
     
  2. Discjockeyshtud Green Belt

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    I was multitasking having a nasty argument with the missus when Maia hit that sub and couldn't go apeshit haha, great day though

    I like Gillespie a lot after tape, Franca seemed to use a JiuJitsu base to grind Bruno at 190, was gassin and getting reversed by the second, a multi all american champ should be able to stack a single to a double with Francas wide stance and pin him to the fence wearing him down for dec or late finish i reckon

    Comin off a hatrick from the last three so im goin long for this one

    Felder/Redwood O1.5 +
    Santos ML +
    Cyborg ML +
    Barao ML +
    Pepey ML

    8.67-1
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2016
  3. piglord Black Belt

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    which euro bookmaker offers fight of the night props? going for felder/trinaldo obviously.
     
  4. wack3d Silver Belt

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    none of the bookies i use.. but i think ladbrokes might have them?
     
  5. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Literally on the same plays again. On the ones where you have a heavy fav, I'm on props that would hit. Went well last time!
     
  6. MMAJay Green Belt

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    Santos ITD is -330 on 5D but you can get it @ -200 on OHMBet
     
  7. The MM Analyst Blue Belt

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    Watched some tape on Gregor/Franca.

    Gregor has a great shot and fantastic chain wrestling/finishing, but he hasn't learned how to set up his shots yet and just drops his head and plows through from outside striking range. His top control is extremely shaky and his striking isn't as sound as Franca's. I favor Franca, but the line has moved to -170 and I don't think he's worth a bet at those odds.
     
  8. The MM Analyst Blue Belt

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    Trinaldo down to -112 and I added another 5 units on him. 13 units on Trinaldo now.
     
  9. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    ...is 13u a big bet for you
     
  10. The MM Analyst Blue Belt

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    Not too big in terms of money (I started with $60 at the start of the year, playing with a bankroll of about 500 right now), but it's the third biggest play I've ever made (biggest was Shevchenko vs Kaufman and Rose vs Paige). Don't do it too often but I think there's a lot of value on Trinaldo. Also have about 7.4 units riding on Formiga.
     
  11. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Only betvictor as far as I'm aware, I don't think they have for this card though. PaddyPower do as well but only for the really big cards.
     
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    not in terms of money. in terms of average bet size.

    13u is an astronomically big bet for most of us. a bet that frankly shouldn't be made pretty much ever. just getting a frame of reference.

    and it's on an undersized 38 year old on a pick'em odds fight.. i don't know how you could be so confident, personally.

    7.4u formiga is also beyond ballsy. i don't like either bet (size) at all, but gl..
     
  13. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Holy fuck Prazeres weighs 187 right now

    source = Guilherme Cruz twitter
     
  14. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Well, you should feel good because I'm very shaky on my pick LOL I mean, I favor Gillespie slightly because of his excellent wrestling and conditioning which will pay the dividends if he can get outside of the first round. The only thing that holds me back again is that he's going to give up a a lot of size and in scrambles he often gives up his back which will see him get choked unconscious if he makes that same mistake as he did against Sydney Outlaw in his Ring of Combat prior to coming to do UFC. Also, Outlaw — who has fought most of his career at 170 pounds — was massive compared to Gillespie which is something to expect with Franca. I am probably going to play the Franca submission prop as well.
     
  15. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

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    Gillespie decision 4u

    100/403$
    100/350$

    Gillespie ML 3u

    150/255$

    Glaico 3rd round finish .6u

    30/300$

    Lickin' my chops to see what this cat could do. Yes he's undersized and yes Glaico is oversized but could also mean Gregor can get in deeper on the legs and it could also mean Franca cutting all that weight could hurt his cardio. Evidently though, Glaico's got a bunch of 3rd round finishes so I guess I can't discount his heart. All n all, Gregor is a very good prospect that's got a high ceiling and I'll take my chances on him if he decides to rise to the occasion with the odds stacked fighting overseas in Brazil. +170 was JUST the right price I was waiting for! Glad I was patient til the public saw the weigh ins and size difference, I mean, we already knew Glaico was a going to look like a giant LW.
     
  16. Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    It's in Brazil so they are all probably on those Brazilian supplements
     
  17. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Hell yea O! Nearly 6 years later and we're still winning and making sharp picks! Glad to know you are on board!

    BTW: are there any special prop bets or o/u you like? Here's a few I like:

    Santos by submission +1400: Santos has actually recorded a submission win in his career — by RNC — and this could very well be a case where the Brazilian rocks Spiceley and then follows him to the mat where he takes his back and sinks in a choke on the dazed and confused American.+1400 it is worth a very very small flier like 0.3 units.

    Luque wins by submission at +180 : in short, this is how I save a fight and they nearly ~55% of the time with another 20% by knockout then 10% UD/SD in favor of Luque. Then the other 15% goes to Urbina with the bulk of the remaining 15% coming via decision. I'm going to put at least 1.50 units on the outcome

    Burns wins in round 3 +630: real quick. Tractor has very suspect conditioning and he missed weight. Burns is a BJJ phenom and alread demonstrated that he can get the finish in the final frame as he did against the Brazilian Cowboy. At these juicy odds this is definitely worth a small play.

    Formiga wins by submission + 400 : quite simply, Formiga is one of the best back takers in the division and he can become a human backpack from any position. If he (At least 0.5 units) [spoiler/] can get Ortiz's back there's a very good chance he sinks in the hooks and wraps up a quick submission. There's also a good chance Ortiz gets the takedown but the Brazilian BJJ black belt snatches an arm or locks up a triangle. Juicy A is one of the slickest submission artists in the lower weight classes and he's ripe for a tap out. This is a great prop bet. (At least 0.3 units)
     
  18. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Hmmmmm...
    I did not think of that… Good stuff bro
     
  19. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    The only thing that scares me is the way Outlaw out muscled him and took his back. In fact, Gillespie had his back taken in r1 and nearly had the sub locked up (apparently) as the the round ended.
     
  20. null Gold Belt

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    Nice to see you stop by with some breakdowns Goodfella. I'm on all your same picks except I backed Yahya, hopefully winning what I fear may be a split decision in Brazil. The travel isn't easy on Japanese fighters to North or South America. I'm also on Franca scorecards= no action in case Gillespie wins a decision and small on Franca sub too, but no ML play there. You didn't break down Alan Patrick vs Stevie Ray. What do you think there? I bet Patrick ML at +161, but Ray does have a path to victory.
     
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