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UFN 95 - Cyborg vs Lansberg - Brazil

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 15, 2016.

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  1. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    While I agree with the pick, I am in total agreement with the advice EZ gave you and thin you are most likely risking far too much on these tilts. I mean, 13.5u for what is for all intents and purposes a coin flip of a fight. Ummm! Uh uh!

    Personally, I am putting a bit down on Francisco as I give him around a 60% chance of winning (though I could be persuaded otherwise) and would not talk someone off of Felder. But with the fight being in Brazil is what pushed me over the tipping point. But boy oh boy, there is no way in hell you could give me to put 13 units on a 38-year-old fighter who has a history of cardio problems Fighting against a fiery redhead marauder who is six years his junior and can put his lights out with a single blow. No. Fucking. Way!

    ...also, I believe that you are taking a huge gamble putting 7.5 units down on Juissier as that fight is also close and in my personal opinion shows no type of value where a bettor would risk that much money or said bout.

    At any rate, BOL brother
     
  2. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Thanks JG

    Personally I like Stevie Ray but they could go either way. Alan Patrick is very frustrating to watch and he has burned me countless times. I need to finish my research tonight and in the morning and I will put up the other four fights.

    As for Rani, I believe the only way to play and where you are giving in the value is either his submission or round one prop bet. But BOL my man!
     
  3. northsofia Blue Belt

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    I`m thinking about desparate Felder trying to land some of his spining shits in gassed Trinaldo`s face. And i hardly see them hit their target but maybe there is some value in the Felder R3 prop @15.00
     
  4. Lightsout671 White Belt

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    Wich bet is safer Trinaldo dec or Barao dec what do u guys think ????
     
  5. weedreference Green Belt

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    I also have 7 units on Formiga, which is a massive bet by my standards (the only others I've been on this large this year have been Leon Edwards vs. Dominic Waters and Saffedine vs. Ellenberger).

    God help us. (Just kidding... I am very confident)
     
  6. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I still suck shit at picking props with + odds. The only props that I'm playing are the fairly obvious ones that are moderate favs.
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Idk why you're comparing those two fights.. so you should reconsider whatever your strategy is...

    But definitely barao dec, imo. Nover has never legitimately been finished. The Bradley one was a bad stoppage.
     
  8. Lightsout671 White Belt

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    Im just doing a fun parlay wanted to know wich one is more possible lol
     
  9. usernamee Silver Belt

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    Man, if Hector Urbinas TDD and fight IQ didn't look like garbage his last fight betting on that fight to go the distance would be sweet. Obviously the odds is there for a reason. But has anyone heard what he's been up to? It's been about 10 months since he fought. Maybe he realised his TDD is shit and has worked diligently on it. Can't find any pre fight interviews with him though
     
  10. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    I gathered that. Don't agree with the style of betting, but I understand
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    He was supposed to fight sullivan a couple months ago, Sully pulled out on fight day or the day before
     
  12. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    u1.5 -235
    u1.0 -198
    Nelson ML -440
    Nelson R1 -165

    Value on Nelson R1 at the moment compared to the unders and Nelson's ML
     
  13. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    I can't use Will Hill, but they have Cyborg R1 -149. It's -250 on 5d
     
  14. piglord Black Belt

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    agree with all of his picks other than the chagas/silva fight which i just wouldn't touch.

     
  15. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Idk if thats a good thing. This dude seems to always lose lol
     
  16. letmebangbrah Green Belt

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    huge on barao, nelson, santos parlay as well as roy and santos by ko.
     
  17. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    A bunch of dogs are getting bet right now
     
  18. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    yep, pepey down to -115, trinaldo down to -115 (this one's more gradual), yahya down to -110, chagas down to -115.. gillespie has dropped a bunch today, too

    the huge dogs aren't getting bet, tho.. looks like all of the closer odds fights are balancing out
     
  19. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Yeah I scrolled down his feed it's always "UFC fight night x betting recap -5u" lol

    His cappertek is also in the negative
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Taking a stab at Pepey/De Lat Torre for FOTN at +650. Pepey's wild ass style lends itself to crazy fights against a lot of guys (unless like Elkins they can take him down and control him). Yeah he'll fade if it goes past 2 rounds but I have a feeling if De La Torre lasts past rd 1 this will end up a "just bleed" fan's type of fight.
     
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