UFN 96 - Lineker vs Dodson - Portland

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i think people are just off-base here. we'll see, i guess.. but everyone's fading mccrory from one ko. he's had one ko loss ever. you're almost ignoring the fact that he's fighting nate freakin marquardt. a 37-year old over-the-hill fighter who's 2-6 in his last 8.. got brutally ko'd in his last fight, too.

this is 66-33 mccrory for me, easily. can he lose? yea. he can. but -130? love it.
 
i think people are just off-base here. we'll see, i guess.. but everyone's fading mccrory from one ko. he's had one ko loss ever. you're almost ignoring the fact that he's fighting nate freakin marquardt. a 37-year old over-the-hill fighter who's 2-6 in his last 8.. got brutally ko'd in his last fight, too.

this is 66-33 mccrory for me, easily. can he lose? yea. he can. but -130? love it.
McCrory is really not very good though
 
I'd happily take an L at these odds backing barn cat. I think people are just bitter from backing him in the last fight. He's fighting Nate freaking Marquardt
 
I'd happily take an L at these odds backing barn cat. I think people are just bitter from backing him in the last fight. He's fighting Nate freaking Marquardt
Nate Marquardt has a nice overhand and Tamdan keeps his head up high...
 
i think people are just off-base here. we'll see, i guess.. but everyone's fading mccrory from one ko. he's had one ko loss ever. you're almost ignoring the fact that he's fighting nate freakin marquardt. a 37-year old over-the-hill fighter who's 2-6 in his last 8.. got brutally ko'd in his last fight, too.

this is 66-33 mccrory for me, easily. can he lose? yea. he can. but -130? love it.
People are putting too much stock into one win over Josh Samman. Barn Cat would also get KO'd by guys like Lombard.
 
All of a sudden I have money on 1U Tamden KO, 0.5U Nate KO, 0.1 Nate R1 and 1.5U on a parlay with U1.5. Heaviest betted fight after ME. Somebody better go to sleep.
 
I'd happily take an L at these odds backing barn cat. I think people are just bitter from backing him in the last fight. He's fighting Nate freaking Marquardt
I cashed big on Jotko +200 there. Barn Cat being the fav after just one win over Josh Samman was hilarious.
 
McCrory is really not very good though

He has ultra slick subs and honestly at this point I trust his reflexes way more than I trust Nate's. I think Nate gets stung at some point and the Barn Cat capitalizes and locks up a sub. That's how I see it going anyway.
 
I cashed big on Jotko +200 there. Barn Cat being the fav after just one win over Josh Samman was hilarious.

We get it, you don't like Tamdan in this fight.
 
He has ultra slick subs and honestly at this point I trust his reflexes way more than I trust Nate's. I think Nate gets stung at some point and the Barn Cat capitalizes and locks up a sub. That's how I see it going anyway.
I'd be surprised if he subbed Nate, who has probably never been subbed. I guess if he rocks him its more possible.

With current lines i'd probably just stab McCrory itd. But Nate at +170 is fine for me. Nate can probably take him down, and if Nate's defense was sound enough to protect his chin from wild CB than he can do so here. Thats basically what Tamdan's standup resembles, is how CB looked in that fight going for broke.
 
I'd be surprised if he subbed Nate, who has probably never been subbed. I guess if he rocks him its more possible.

With current lines i'd probably just stab McCrory itd. But Nate at +170 is fine for me. Nate can probably take him down, and if Nate's defense was sound enough to protect his chin from wild CB than he can do so here. Thats basically what Tamdan's standup resembles, is how CB looked in that fight going for broke.

Yeah it's just one of those things where every KO makes reflexes worse, and Santos put a BRUTAL one on him in his last fight. He's older, he's been hit so many damn times, it's just a lot of things adding up making me think he's ripe to get stung here. And McCrory WILL look to finish via sub if he rocks Nate and there's any sub opportunity. It's his bread and butter.

But yeah I like Tamden itd at +130. I'm playing it.
 
Yeah it's just one of those things where every KO makes reflexes worse, and Santos put a BRUTAL one on him in his last fight. He's older, he's been hit so many damn times, it's just a lot of things adding up making me think he's ripe to get stung here. And McCrory WILL look to finish via sub if he rocks Nate and there's any sub opportunity. It's his bread and butter.

But yeah I like Tamden itd at +130. I'm playing it.
Only +130 when his ml is -130? Nvm, if I had to choose right now i'd probably go small Tamdan round 1 +250 as a fade on Marquardt being at the end of his career.

But we'll see. After the Samman fight, don't know how anyone could think Tamdan is more than a lower level MW. Both those dudes looked sloppy and killed all hype I had for them. Was happy bookies overvalued him with that -2xx opener. I'm kind of hoping Nate is takedown heavy in this fight, since Tamdan tdd sucks and hes not going to catch Nate with a sub from the guard.
 
I cashed big on Jotko +200 there. Barn Cat being the fav after just one win over Josh Samman was hilarious.
If you look at accomplishments, sure. But wouldn't you agree he's a bad match up for Jotko?
 
The best bet for the night for me is Dodson. I think his style beats Lineker's.

I think that Cody East had some good value. You throw in the HW factor and that's already good reason to bet him. East looks like a pretty active fighter and I he will definitely throw more volume than Blaydes in the stand up. I feel like Blaydes need several more years to develop to his ceiling. He looks like a guy who doesn't understand BJJ/ principles. If he throws on a GI I think he can reach some of his potential. That Razor Blayde needs some sharpening. I got East as a pretty hefty dog.
After the weigh ins I dont think East will throw a lot of volume for very long, esp if Blaydes gets on top of him, and there's no reason to think he won't
 
Barncat fight is really about who strikes first imo. Personally like the under. Both guys have plenty of r1 stoppages.

Nate is a live dog who only needs to land once.
 
If you look at accomplishments, sure. But wouldn't you agree he's a bad match up for Jotko?
No I wouldn't say he is at all. I was expecting Jotko to win an easy 30-27
 
After the weigh ins I dont think East will throw a lot of volume for very long, esp if Blaydes gets on top of him, and there's no reason to think he won't

I don't like East all that much either. I looked up his past allegations and I don't think he has character. With that said, the HW division is an unforgiving weight class and it's easy to make critical mistakes.

Blaydes is young and he needs to pay his dues. I honestly think everyone is overlooking the ability to mesh BJJ fundamentals with that wrestling background of his. He doesn't even know how to get hooks when taking the back, BJJ 101. Let alone, his ground and pound looks ineffective. Anyone that throws double hammer fists to the back needs some MMA lessons. I believe Blaydes can develop into a Cain-esque fighter but as of today, I don't see it. Maybe his move to Colorado might help.

They're both not in the best shape, and yes if East came into better shape it probably would be a better bet. All that said, it's also a principled bet on a heavyweight underdog.
 
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