UFN 98 - Ferguson vs RDA - Mexico City

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I havent seen held guys how does he beat diego? Can he out strike him? Can he get takedowns?

Yes to both.

Held is an absolute stud. He has like 30 fights Alrdy and he's only 25ish. He used to be a BJJ/leglock guy exclusively, but now he has damned good takedowns and serviceable standup.

His tds have truly gotten awesome when hes fresh. Might call him the maia of 155 in that regard. If he gets ahold of you, hell and up on top somehow. But he also has an excellent guard. Hell attack with subs from everywhere, even when tired.

5 years ago this would be a much closer matchup.

Held has shown big gastank dumps in a few fights, but has improved that as well. Mexico city altitude could play a factor, tho.

If held doesn't get an early sub it could conceivably be a rd 1 held, rd 3 diego situation... But I think he'll be alright

I think held will be first guy to tap diego, but decision could totally happen

If held NSC was -150 I might make my biggest bet since 2008. Diego never finishing him.
 
I havent seen held guys how does he beat diego? Can he out strike him? Can he get takedowns?

Really good leglocks, but a lot of the time he'll dive for them or roll for them and then just use the threat (once he gets ahold of the leg) to roll his opponent and gain top position. I think I saw him do it twice in Bellator and was really impressed with how well he set it up. It was almost like he was thinking 2 moves ahead like in a chess game.

Seems like the kind of guy who would be weird to prepare for.
 
So held is parlay fodder we think?

Is it just me or does this card suck for betting? Nothing sticking out to me besides ferg but betting him causes heart failure!
 
So held is parlay fodder we think?

Is it just me or does this card suck for betting? Nothing sticking out to me besides ferg but betting him causes heart failure!

Just you! we only have 5 lines so far and I have a bunch of bets alrdy

Held -200
Held sub +380
Grasso nsc -184
Grasso rd 3 +1450

Tons of angles to consider on rda-ferg and lotta potential in unreleased lines
 
I like RDA but Ferguson has a lot of momentum. I might bet on this fight for action but nothing over a unit.

I like Beneil as the underdog but I feel he may be too slow for rashid. Think he's much better on the ground though.

I'll pay the juice on Held. Think he's the better striker and grappler. Doubt he subs diego though.

Eric perez is that big of a favorite? I'll probably pass as I think he wins but it'll be a close fight.

Guido fought beltran before and I thought he won but I'd bet Beltran here depending on the odds.


Barzola should open at evens thats's such a tough fight ;)
 
held/sanchez is a quandry. held is elite on the ground but diego's tdd is superb. from what i remember, held's striking is getting better but it's still a work in progress.

interested to see the lines on barzola/avila.

any intel on max griffin? will still fade erick montano even if he did surprisingly well against randy brown.
 
Damn, some of you guys are willing to pay juice on Held here? If he goes for a leg lock he will fail and get hugged, I'm not convinced he's a better wrestler, and really anyone can outstrike Diego but I'm not convinced Held can keep it there or will keep it there

o2.5, stab in Diego decision for me

Edit fight is at altitude too and Diego is a cardio machine
 
held/sanchez is a quandry. held is elite on the ground but diego's tdd is superb. from what i remember, held's striking is getting better but it's still a work in progress.

interested to see the lines on barzola/avila.

any intel on max griffin? will still fade erick montano even if he did surprisingly well against randy brown.

He was absolutely rag dolled by Colby Covington but Colby is a monster wrestler.

Erick might be able to grind him just not as efficiently.

Edit:
Remember Erick scared a few people ITT when he did well vesus randy brown. He won the first two rounds IIRC.
 
is erick's wrestling really that good though? randy brown with that lanky physique and high centre of gravity is going to be a lot easier to take down than griffin i would think. also, pretty sure griffin took that fight on short notice.
 
Sorry guys but whats grasso like? Legit prospect? Wmma not my area of expertise
 
Sorry guys but whats grasso like? Legit prospect? Wmma not my area of expertise
Very legit prospect, but just a bit too juiced. Shes a real good boxer. HJC always getting under rated. Think i'll just hit the over and Grasso round 3.
 
is erick's wrestling really that good though? randy brown with that lanky physique and high centre of gravity is going to be a lot easier to take down than griffin i would think. also, pretty sure griffin took that fight on short notice.

I honestly don't know. I'm staying away from betting on lower level UFC fights as that's where I seemed to get burned.
I'm not betting on either unless either is a huge dog.
I
 
grasso's boxing is high level for wmma but i think heather jo might be capable of doing a miesha tate and turning the fight into an ugly, grinding shitfest. for that reason i don't like the price on grasso but would play her at around -200.
 
Not sure im gonna like much here but plenty of time to watch tape. May end up going all in on my fav cash cow mr ferg
 
Not sure im gonna like much here but plenty of time to watch tape. May end up going all in on my fav cash cow mr ferg

I'm gonna be on Ferg too, but I'm holding back a bit with the plan to live bet Ferg after rd 2 probably. Doubtful Ferg wins early but he will get hit. I think we could potentially see him drop the first 2 rounds (or maybe lose 1 and have 1 really close, etc.) and see his live line something like +200. He's not gonna slow down, we know that. If RDA somehow does get him out of there early, we save some of the $ we'd have lost.

Just my 2 cents, but I think Ferg has the potential to be one of the better live betting lines in a long time if he drops a round or 2. He could definitely take over the fight later with his pressure.
 
Torn on Dariush v Magomedov, settled on Dariush NSC for 2 units. Magomedov has some of my favourite striking but he's not much of a finisher

Took Clark for a unit, I'm almost always willing to take a big dog in WMMA. And put a tiny bit on Sanchez rd3 at +2125
 
I'm gonna be on Ferg too, but I'm holding back a bit with the plan to live bet Ferg after rd 2 probably. Doubtful Ferg wins early but he will get hit. I think we could potentially see him drop the first 2 rounds (or maybe lose 1 and have 1 really close, etc.) and see his live line something like +200. He's not gonna slow down, we know that. If RDA somehow does get him out of there early, we save some of the $ we'd have lost.

Just my 2 cents, but I think Ferg has the potential to be one of the better live betting lines in a long time if he drops a round or 2. He could definitely take over the fight later with his pressure.

Yeah thats what im thinking. My only worry is underestimating fergs power and rda coming off a bad tko. Ferg had thomson whos tough as they come out on his feet a few times and put tibau down before the finish. Plus hes had a few nasty ko's against lesser opponents. I completely see what you are saying but id kick myself if ferg ended things quick. On the other hand if rda blows him out in the first which i find very unlikely but nonetheless it would save me £££! Decisions decisions...
 
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