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The term history repeats itself is overused gibberish. But in this case I'm really seeing the similarities the US v China situation feels like we're repeating the UK and US situation 100 years ago. Focus on navy because that's the branch of the military that projects power and IMO is most important(I'm a maritime historian biased).
Recap
100-120 years ago UK was in a very similar situation as the US. Strongest country by a mile(on the surface it might not seem that way but for example in WW1 if the Allies had lost the UK would have still won as Germany had no way of reaching them) with a dominant navy. The US like China had potential much bigger in both land and population than the UK. The US was also seen as producing a lot(both civilian and military stuff) but of lesser quality. And UK citizens attitude towards Americans minus any racial stuff were very similar to that of the US towards China(kind of hard to explain).
As late as 1905ish the US navy while one of the largest in the world was sort of a joke in terms of quality(we didn't have a real army cause look at the US on a map). But in a span of 15-20 years this drastically changed. While the UK had always insisted on having a navy stronger than the second strongest by a very wide margin the US's superior capacity forced the UK to agree to parity as otherwise the US would quickly pass the UK. While they had the same size navy the US could have passed the UK at will at this point and treaties and US isolationism only delayed this.
That's what I think is happening between US and China right now. While carriers might or might not be obsolete I can see the Chinese reaching parity with the US somewhat quickly even in that. The US's impressive fleet is the product of stacking ships up built over decades(our current carrier fleet was built one at a time over the course of 50 years) and because we've had no rivals there's no need to build next gen ships quickly like in the early 20th century where every ship was competing with peers in other countries. Our corrupt military industrial compex extracts immense sums of money and builds things at the pace of a snail and nowadays sometimes can't even finish those things. If any country can build comparable ships at a faster pace any arms race is a wrap. China might have only 3 aircraft carriers one of which is modern but the US has only built 4 in the 21st century.
Another aspect is that Japan was UK's Ally in Asia(actually they were largely responsible for Japan getting so strong so quickly, we don't like to talk about that) who the US was hostile to. Today Japan is the US's main ally in Asia who the Chinese are hostile to. The US is largely responsible for building anime Japan same as UK was largely responsible for Mejii era Japan. If Japan rebuilds it's military it likely is the distant third strongest country as Russia has no navy and power projection and that's been was it's role in the 20th century.
Now I don't think this topic matters I just find the comparison interesting when looking at the early 20th century. The main difference is that nukes make China surpassing the US as number 1 inconsequential. Even without them the US's geography makes it invincible against invasion(UK was too to a lesser extent). Both US and China will be the top 2 by a wide margin likely for centuries(barring the EU becoming a country I just don't see the potential for anyone to break into the great power club). This is different than the UK which fell hard and fast to being a great power in name only.
Recap
100-120 years ago UK was in a very similar situation as the US. Strongest country by a mile(on the surface it might not seem that way but for example in WW1 if the Allies had lost the UK would have still won as Germany had no way of reaching them) with a dominant navy. The US like China had potential much bigger in both land and population than the UK. The US was also seen as producing a lot(both civilian and military stuff) but of lesser quality. And UK citizens attitude towards Americans minus any racial stuff were very similar to that of the US towards China(kind of hard to explain).
As late as 1905ish the US navy while one of the largest in the world was sort of a joke in terms of quality(we didn't have a real army cause look at the US on a map). But in a span of 15-20 years this drastically changed. While the UK had always insisted on having a navy stronger than the second strongest by a very wide margin the US's superior capacity forced the UK to agree to parity as otherwise the US would quickly pass the UK. While they had the same size navy the US could have passed the UK at will at this point and treaties and US isolationism only delayed this.
That's what I think is happening between US and China right now. While carriers might or might not be obsolete I can see the Chinese reaching parity with the US somewhat quickly even in that. The US's impressive fleet is the product of stacking ships up built over decades(our current carrier fleet was built one at a time over the course of 50 years) and because we've had no rivals there's no need to build next gen ships quickly like in the early 20th century where every ship was competing with peers in other countries. Our corrupt military industrial compex extracts immense sums of money and builds things at the pace of a snail and nowadays sometimes can't even finish those things. If any country can build comparable ships at a faster pace any arms race is a wrap. China might have only 3 aircraft carriers one of which is modern but the US has only built 4 in the 21st century.
Another aspect is that Japan was UK's Ally in Asia(actually they were largely responsible for Japan getting so strong so quickly, we don't like to talk about that) who the US was hostile to. Today Japan is the US's main ally in Asia who the Chinese are hostile to. The US is largely responsible for building anime Japan same as UK was largely responsible for Mejii era Japan. If Japan rebuilds it's military it likely is the distant third strongest country as Russia has no navy and power projection and that's been was it's role in the 20th century.
Now I don't think this topic matters I just find the comparison interesting when looking at the early 20th century. The main difference is that nukes make China surpassing the US as number 1 inconsequential. Even without them the US's geography makes it invincible against invasion(UK was too to a lesser extent). Both US and China will be the top 2 by a wide margin likely for centuries(barring the EU becoming a country I just don't see the potential for anyone to break into the great power club). This is different than the UK which fell hard and fast to being a great power in name only.