What Did We Learn? UFC 262 Takeaways

I was done with Jacare after the Holland fight. With how Vettori handled the top game, it reinforced that to me. However, I didn't learn on Ferguson. No idea why I figured he could gameplan and stuff the takedowns forcing a standup fight. It's clear he will never gameplan due to his style. I'm not sure that I'm sold that he's totally washed yet, but I think there is a clear blueprint to beat him now in two different ways.
When i did the spread sheet measuring Tony and Ben There was almost no edge for tony, he had a slight boxing edge but that’s it, he like justin gathje , had both come from high level wrestling backgrounds, have deteriorated and neglected their wrestling to the point its near high school level. I would bet the younger version of themselves would out wrestle their current selves. Same with Souza , once i heard he was teaching and opened a new school, i knew Andre would sweep the floor with him, i almost didn’t bet it but took a dive at the end.
 
The biggest takeaway should be that AGE MATTERS AND EVERYONE GETS OLD. I'm talking about the Jacare fight mostly, even fighters who were at one time considered the best at a specific area of MMA can lose at that area when they are past their prime. Glad I didn't bet on that fight.
 
When i did the spread sheet measuring Tony and Ben There was almost no edge for tony, he had a slight boxing edge but that’s it, he like justin gathje , had both come from high level wrestling backgrounds, have deteriorated and neglected their wrestling to the point its near high school level. I would bet the younger version of themselves would out wrestle their current selves. Same with Souza , once i heard he was teaching and opened a new school, i knew Andre would sweep the floor with him, i almost didn’t bet it but took a dive at the end.

Dariush also fought pretty damn smart and conservative. Part of me thought Dariush was going to welcome a wild firefight.
 
I need to go heavier on fights I have strong leans on and stop betting too much on things I've only slightly got leans on but want action on it for when I watch the fight.

I was quite confident on Barboza, Dariush and Giagos but then rather than piling more on them ended up betting on people like Schnell, Souza and Shevchenko just because I leaned them slightly and wanted action on the fights. Still ended up 7-8u in profit for this event, but if I just put the money on those 3 fights on the 3 I had stronger leans on it would have been a better night.

Similarly, I need to stop focusing on props - the better odds always entice me in and I've been saying I need to stop betting them so much for like 3 years now so I'm just a moron.
 
There are fighters you trust, and then there are Shane Burgos and Michael Chandler.
Honestly man, I think you're just selling Barboza a little short. He's only lost maybe a handful of fights (clearly, ie not the Ige, Felder fights) in a very lengthy UFC career in, one of, if not the, top divisions in the company during that entire timespan. I don't think his run at 145 is going to last too long, maybe 2 years at most, but dude still has it. I like him against a lot of guys in the top 15 at Featherweight. Ige's at 8, and we saw them fight. Arnold Allen is ahead of him at 7 and I could see the UFC booking those two against one another. That would be an interesting matchup, I think I'd lean Barboza as of right now, but would need to watch some Allen again as a refresher (watched a ton for the Yusuff fight, have now forgotten it all). I could see him beating someone like Jung or Yair or Emmett, too.

Burgos imo is a rock solid top 10 gatekeeper for the next few years. His style is bound to give a lot of lower end guys trouble, but the higher end ones, particularly in a striker heavy division, will give him trouble. I think he'd give guys like Allen and Yusuff problems with his pressure, for example. Allen would probably land enough on him to win, not sure Yusuff would.

I need to go heavier on fights I have strong leans on and stop betting too much on things I've only slightly got leans on but want action on it for when I watch the fight.

I was quite confident on Barboza, Dariush and Giagos but then rather than piling more on them ended up betting on people like Schnell, Souza and Shevchenko just because I leaned them slightly and wanted action on the fights. Still ended up 7-8u in profit for this event, but if I just put the money on those 3 fights on the 3 I had stronger leans on it would have been a better night.

Similarly, I need to stop focusing on props - the better odds always entice me in and I've been saying I need to stop betting them so much for like 3 years now so I'm just a moron.
I have this same mindset about wanting to stretch it out, even if I'm less confident. Trying to limit myself to sticking with one, two, three maybe, picks that I'm most confident in, even if some of them are just props.

@Oblivian you said
However, I didn't learn on Ferguson. No idea why I figured he could gameplan and stuff the takedowns forcing a standup fight. It's clear he will never gameplan due to his style. I'm not sure that I'm sold that he's totally washed yet, but I think there is a clear blueprint to beat him now in two different ways.
I'm tempted to agree with you here. I think given the right matchup, I don't think Tony is "done" in the sense that he's going to lose every fight from here on out. Right at this second, how many guys in the top 15 would you favour over him? Even with the rough 3L's in a row, I'm not sure. I hope (and think) they will go the money fight route with Tony. I mentioned him vs Diaz (your choice) at 170 would be an awesome matchup. Him vs Masvidal at 155 or 170, depending on Mas' next move would be a lot of fun. Him vs Conor if Conor loses to Dustin again and doesn't want the Nate rematch yet (because clearly Conor would be out of title contention and could get a big high profile win).

I don't remember Tony looking that slow in his movement or punches this past weekend, and I think when he's fallen off the point of no return is when that moment happens. Given his age, the concern is it could happen next fight, could happen a few more down the road.

@AK-47 you said:
For exampe I bet Barbosa and he had a great performance overall. but something felt a bit off about his kicks last night. When he landed he landed good and hard but he wasnt as accurate catching a lot of knees and elbows and refused to set them up with punches which allowed burgos to evade quite a few of them. Also his recovery after missing a low kicks was slow but burgos' leg was probaby wrecked at that point and he couldnt take advantage of it. Barbosa is a excellent kicker but not a good checker and absorbed quite a few kicks himself

If that was Edson Barbosa of old Burgos would not have been able to walk out of the cage unassisted because some of those early low kicks landed haaaaard and looked liked they really jacked up his knee. I think ive noticed that a lot of older fighters (who kick a lot) specifically ones that have a lot of fights throw less and less low kicks as the fights piles up. As an older guy who has been training/competing muay thai for most of my life I see this with a lot of guys including myself. I feel like in his next fight his kicking volume is going to decrease. He showed improved boxing though and was generating a lot of power in his punches compared to his previous fights.
I agree with you on this. I think Barboza might have between 1-3 more top tier (let's call frame that as top 10 in this instance) wins left in him. Matchups pending, I think he's still throwing enough kicks to have that as a weapon, and his hands seem to carry bigger pop down at 145 compared to 155. He's also improved his hands offensively and defensively, and his takedown defence game is still strong it seems like. I just watched him vs Varner and see what you mean about the eras. My goodness did he brutalize Varner's leg, and Burgos was there to be kicked hard.
Side note: Varnier is lucky Edson's striking defence VS aggressive punchers was very weak here. And he's lucky he won when he did in that fight, because if it went much longer his leg was toast. Varner was only a year older than Barboza here, but had almost 3x as many fights. Crazy.

I think he's going to end up catching a hellacious beating from someone with a high volume of output and who is less hittable than Burgos once the wheels start to fall off. He should avoid Max Holloway at all costs.
 
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I apologize for the double post, but don't want it to be lost in the shuffle with the one above. I just wanted to add that my original intent of the thread was to focus on what we learned about the fighters. However, analyzing our own performances and tendencies is a good idea too.
 
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