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your official ufc 196 bets

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 27, 2016.

  1. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    ufc 196 Net: +70.39
    mcgregor -208: 622.50 for 300 / mcgregor DEC: 25 for 226.25 / U2.5: 183 for 189.50 / RD 1: 35 parlays / NO GLOVE TOUCH: 0 for 11.58 / strikes O85.5: 33 for 49.50
    tate: 184.18 for 252.50 / tate +3.5 100 for 80 / O3.5: 125 for 100 / O3.0: 152.50 for 100

    villante +287: 198.76 for 570.47 / latifi RD 1: 35 parlays
    lawlor DEC: 10 for 92
    / lawlor no judges: 50 for 55.50 / lawlor +3.5: 166.25 for 125 / anderson +450: 50 for 225
    nunes +105: 200 for 210
    / nunes RD 1: 25 for 87.50 - 35 parlays / RD1: 25 for 50.75 / U2.5: 40 for 100 / shevchenko +3.5: 70 for 50
    thatch: 100 parlay / RD 1: 20 parlays

    taleb +155: 50 for 77.50 / taleb DEC: 15 parlays / O1.5: 99.25 for 75 / RD 1: 20 parlays / silva no scorecards: 50 parlay
    miranda: 150 parlays / miranda RD2: 15 parlays / miranda RD 1: 20 parlays / miranda no scorecards: 50 parlay / U2.5: 40 for 40
    skelly +159: 150 for 208 / skelly no scorecards: 50 parlay / dec: 50 parlay
    sanchez +174: 100 for 173.50
    / sanchez RD 3: 15 for 301.25 / sanchez SUB: 15 for 172.50 / sanchez ITD: 15 parlays / sanchez +3.5: 100 parlays
    saggo -186: 185.50 for 100
    / saggo RD2: 15 parlays / saggo SUB: 33 for 92.40 / saggo no scorecards: 50 parlay
    ishihara no scorecards: 50 for 78

    props
    DEC U5.5: 50 for 40.98
    DEC U4.5: 16 for 35.20
    DEC U3.5: 6 for 34.92
    DEC U2.5: 2 for 37.40
    DEC U1.5: 1 for 89
    FOTN: miller-sanchez: 15 for 97.50

    parlays
    100 for 85.12: miranda -270 & thatch -285
    50 for 42.97 sanchez +3.5 -240 & Miranda -320
    50 for 59.12 sanchez +3.5 -240 & skelly-elkins DEC -185

    50 for 51.33: silvaNSC/ mirandNSC/ skellyNSC/ saggoNSC
    40 RR for 987.42: diazmcgoatRD1/ latifiRD1/ nunesRD1/ thatchbahaRD1/ talebsilvaRD1/ mirandaguimaresRD1
    35 RR for 3,335.29: diazmcgoatRD1/ latifiRD1/ nunesRD1/ talebDEC/ mirandaRD2/ sanchezITD/ saggoRD2

    ---

    just dumbfounded on conor gassing/quitting. guess i should've taken more hedges. played it great all week until fight night. could've hedged after first, big, too.

    live bet disaster on villante-latifi. switched sides and was just wrong.

    tate comeback was huge.

    taleb ko / siyar sub = oooook. who the hell saw that shit coming.

    biggest regrets (besides the conor bit, even tho my under paid back some) -- anderson +450 after 2nd.. only 0.5u, i'm an IDIOT!!!!!!! and elkins +320 after first, should've bet that for sure.

    unbelievably frustrating weekend between yamauchi bellator and conor in ufc. yet i made small $ on all 3 mma events and killing it in hockey. if that's a "TERRIBLE" weekend (which it feels like in my head), that's not too bad, i guess.
     
  2. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    +13.5 units. I don't even know where to start... I went 5-0 on the first 5 fights. I guess I'll start with the first fight where I had a ton of action and talk about my major plays/moments/fights

    I hit Ishihara ML, itd, +3.5, no SC, NOT Erosa itd. (Lost on ishi R1, and Erosa R3 as a hedge). All that gave me 7.5u

    1u on Elkins +350 after round 1 which I thought was a very close round. I was just so shocked at +350 to make a competent decision, but I am happy I at least put down 1u.

    Had 4u on Erick Silva -200. Um... Idk why I make the same mistakes betting on guys like him as moderate favorites who cannot be trusted at all. In hindsight I should have just opted for livebet in case Silva didn't win in round 1. I was able to hedge with Taleb +240 for 2u (Wish I did more, better yet, wish I didn't haev anything on Silva) which was such a great line on him after a close round I thought he won. And wtf at a Taleb KO. There is always one fighter I never pick on my fantasy teams that are not expected to finish at all that always get a finish.

    1u on Corey A +450 after round 2 when I thought the fight was 1-1. Again I was just so shocked at +450 to make a competent decision, but I am happy I at least got down 1u on it

    The Holm/Miesha fight... I don't even know where to start. I had bets all over the place. o2.0, o2.5. Miesha ML, R4, R5, DEC, SD, +3.5. Holly no SC. Won ~3 units on that fight, but... Of course this sucker dies that was a couple minutes away from hitting or at least partially hitting if it was a draw

    [​IMG]

    So damn close yet again. Last week was the biggest bullshit, though. With the Omie Tech DEC not counting towards my Omie DEC which would've closed a $1000 parlay.


    Conor/Diaz fight... Well I got 7u for 2.5u (-280) on Conor's opener originally. I hedged the "win" amount down to 1u from Diaz bets of +390-+425, so that thankfully took the sting off that loss. However, the Diaz takedown prop and sig strikes over props carried me hard in that fight, so I somehow came out with a profit of 2.5u


    I had a lot more action than what I talked about here, but these were the main plays/moments. Live bet was MONEY. It basically made my night
     
  3. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    you're gettin close on those parlays, man.. my RR's have been utter crap lol. sometimes i win a few of them but never close to 6/6 or 7/7
     
  4. null Gold Belt

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    The most frustrating thing about this event is that I was killing the undercard and up over $1200 before the co-main event and looking at a huge night. I bet Miesha post round 2 at decent odds just after she almost choked Holly out the first time and then bet Holly even bigger after round 3 when Holly looked like she was going to cruise to a decision win. I totally bought into the McGregor hype and only the under 2½ prop and the no glove touch and significant strikes props saved me some money there in the main event. So ended up with a moderate loss after all, which isn't so bad on its own. But I still have this huge future bet from months ago on Conor McGregor against Frankie Edgar for 8.75u to win 5u and I have no idea if the bet will stand or if I'm now locked into a sucker bet on a fighter with no ground game!


    UFC 196 Results

    Conor McGregor (-320) vs Nate Diaz $640.00 for $200.00= -$640.00
    Conor McGregor -5½ points (-289.00) $289.00 for $100.00= -$289.00
    Conor McGregor/Nate Diaz Under 2½ (-180) $180.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Conor McGregor/Nate Diaz Under 2½ (-192) $192.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Conor McGregor wins by submission (+2400) $20.00 for $480.00= -$20.00
    Conor McGregor wins by 5 round decision (+905) $50.00 for $452.50= -$50.00
    Conor McGregor/Nate Diaz No glove touch before fight starts (-280) $140.00 for $50.00= $50.00
    Conor McGregor/Nate Diaz significant strikes over 85½ (+170) $100.00 for $170.00= $170.00

    Holly Holm (-245) vs Miesha Tate $245.00 for $100.00= -$245.00
    Holly Holm (-330) vs Miesha Tate $330.00 for $100.00= -$330.00
    Holly Holm/Miesha Tate Over 2½ (-207) $207.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Holly Holm/Miesha Tate starts round 3 (-249) $249.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Holly Holm/Miesha Tate starts round 4 (-155) $77.50 for $50.00= $50.00
    Holly Holm wins in round 4 (+1375) $15.00 for $206.25= -$15.00
    Holly Holm wins in round 5 (+1975) $15.00 for $296.25= -$15.00
    Holly Holm wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+215) $125.00 for $268.75= -$125.00
    Miesha Tate wins by 5 round decision (+670) $50.00 for $335.00= -$50.00
    Miesha Tate Live In-Play (-116) $200.00 for $172.41= $172.41
    Holy Holm Live In-Play (-450) $450.00 for $100.00= -$450.00

    Ilir Latifi (-180) vs Gian Villante $360.00 for $200.00= $200.00
    Ilir Latifi wins in round 1 (+225) $25.00 for $56.25= -$25.00
    Ilir Latifi wins by TKO/KO (+120) $50.00 for $60.00= -$50.00
    Ilir Latifi/Gian Villante Under 1½ (+130) $75.00 for $97.50= -$75.00

    Corey Anderson -3½ points (+130) vs Tom Lawlor $50.00 for $65.00= $65.00
    Corey Anderson wins by submission (+1245) $20.00 for $249.00= -$20.00
    Corey Anderson wins by 3 round decision (-135) $54.00 for $40.00= $40.00

    Amanda Nunes (-130) vs Valentina Shevchenko $130.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Amanda Nunes (-145) vs Valentina Shevchenko $290.00 for $200.0= $200.00
    Amanda Nunes scorecards = no action (-153) $153.00 for $100.00= Cancelled
    Amanda Nunes wins in round 1 (+350) $35.00 for $122.50= -$35.00
    Amanda Nunes wins by 3 round decision (+291) $40.00 for $116.40= $116.40
    Valentina Shevchenko +3½ points (-165) vs Amanda Nunes $165.00 for $100.00= -$165.00
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+1325) $10.00 for $132.50= -$10.00
    Valentina Shevchenko wins by 3 round decision (+305) $35.00 for $106.75= -$35.00

    Siyar Bahadurzada (+260) vs Brandon Thatch $75.00 for $195.00= $195.00
    Siyar Bahadurzada wins by TKO/KO (+470) $25.00 for $117.50= -$25.00
    Erick Silva/Nordine Taleb Over 1½ (-145) $72.50 for $50.00= -$72.50
    Erick Silva/Nordine Taleb Over 1½ (-150) $75.00 for $50.00= -$75.00
    Nordine Taleb Live In-Play (+240) vs Erick Silva $45.00 for $108.00= $108.00
    Erick Silva/Nordine Taleb goes 3 round distance (+145) $50.00 for $72.50= -$50.00
    Erick Silva wins by 3 round decision (+360) $75.00 for $270.00= -$75.00
    Vitor Miranda/Marcelo Guimaraes Under 2½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00= $105.00
    Vitor Miranda wins in round 1 (+275) $25.00 for $68.75= -$25.00
    Vitor Miranda wins inside distance (+120) $40.00 for $48.00= $48.00
    Vitor Miranda wins inside distance (-105) $52.50 for $50.00= $50.00
    Darren Elkins +3½ points (-175) vs Chas Skelly $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00

    Diego Sanchez (+135) vs Jim Miller $100.00 for $135.00= $135.00
    Diego Sanchez +3½ points (-240) vs Jim Miller $240.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Diego Sanchez wins by 3 round decision (+192) $100.00 for $192.00= $192.00
    Jason Saggo (-200) vs Justin Salas $80.00 for $40.00= $40.00
    Jason Saggo wins by submission (+170) $20.00 for $34.00= -$20.00
    Teruto Ishihara (+155) vs Julian Erosa $40.00 for $62.00= $62.00
    Teruto Ishihara +3½ points (-180) vs Julian Erosa $72.00 for $40.00= $40.00
    Teruto Ishihara scorecards = no action (+145) vs Julian Erosa $50.00 for $72.50= $72.50

    Fights to go distance under 5½ (-122) $40.00 for $32.79= $32.79
    Fights to go distance under 4½ (+220) $25.00 for $55.00= -$25.00
    Fights to go distance under 3½ (+582) $15.00 for $87.30= -$15.00
    Fights to go distance under 2½ (+1870) $10.00 for $187.00= -$10.00
    Fights to go distance under 1½ (+8900) $5.00 for $445.00= -$5.00

    Vitor Miranda wins Fastest KO (+1100) $10.00 for $110.00= -$10.00
    Jason Saggo wins Fastest SUB (+400) $10.0 for $40.00= -$10.00
    Holly Holm/Miesha Tate FOTN award winner (+350) $10.00 for $35.00= -$10.00

    Parlay:
    Diego Sanchez/Jim Miller Over 2½ (-240) + Holly Holm (-350) + Conor McGregor (-440) $200.00 for $247.08= -$200.00
    -----
    Total Loss= -$427.40
     
  5. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Yeah man, extremely close the past 3 events. Still pissed about the Omie fight. We should hit one very soon (I hope so at least)
     
  6. cs02132 Green Belt

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    Wow taleb was +240 in between rounds? That's crazy. Best line of the night if u ask me. Silva looked terrible

    What were the Conor/Nate odds in between rounds? I didn't check

    Think I need to put some money in my 5d account. Why can't bookmaker have
    lb :(
     
  7. piglord Black Belt

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    not even worth me repeating the dog shit i bet, i dont think it's possible to get a card more wrong than i did this time. luckily still up significantly from the london card. roll on australia
     
  8. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Diaz was +600. BM had lb up for the last 2 fights, btw
     
  9. chemmy Green Belt

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    Basically broke even. Close to a $2900 swing with my last minute play on Holly. Got over-excited when her line moved into what I considered playable territory and it cost me a winning week. Should've stuck with my original gut feeling and just played the over 2.5. Ah well, Magny will pull through for me big next event!
     
  10. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Yea. But it dropped to +155 before 5d allowed me to bet it

    Anderson +450 after rd 2 was way better. It turned out he only needed to not get finished lol
     
  11. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I'm still gotten to about the Anderson/Lawlor decision. How the fuck does anyone score Rd 1 for him? Furthermore, I was surprised not a single judge had it 29-28 Lawlor.
     
  12. cs02132 Green Belt

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    I was on Corey and I was worried lawlor was gonna get the win. It was pretty obvious that taleb was gonna win that fight imo. Corey decision was a bit weird to me
     
  13. danareem Green Belt

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    UFC 196: Net total: -13.77u

    Prematch bets:
    Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz: Conor McGregor @1.30 (5u) -5u
    Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz: Conor McGregor @1.27 (4.3u) -4.3u
    Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz: Conor McGregor @1.25 (10u) -10u
    Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz: under 2.5 rounds @1.60 (2.5u) +1.5u

    Valentina Shevchenko vs Amanda Nunes: Amanda Nunes @1.80 (3u) +2.4u
    Valentina Shevchenko vs Amanda Nunes: Amanda Nunes @1.70 (3u) +2.1u


    Siyar Bahadurzada vs Brandon Thatch: Brandon Thatch @1.34 (3.5u) -3.5u
    Diego Sanchez vs Jim Miller: Diego Sanchez @2.65 (1u) +1.65u
    Corey Anderson vs Tom Lawlor: Corey Anderson @1.40 (3.5u) +1.4u

    Prematch total: -14.3u




    Livebets:
    Julian Erosa vs Teruto Ishihara: Teruto Ishihara @1.78 (3.6) +2.8u
    Siyar Bahadurzada vs Brandon Thatch: Siyar Bahadurzada @2.18 (5.6u) +6.7u
    Corey Anderson vs Tom Lawlor: Tom Lawlor @1.80 (4.6u) -4.6u
    Gian Villante vs Ilir Latifi: Gian Villante @2.00 (2u) CASHOUT -0.4u
    Gian Villante vs Ilir Latifi: Ilir Latifi @1.45 (6u) +2.7u
    Holly Holm vs Miesha Tate: Holly Holm @1.46 (3.3u) -3.3u
    Holly Holm vs Miesha Tate: Holly Holm @2.25 ((3.3u) -3.3u

    Livetbet total: +0.5u



    Comments:
    Getting killed by last-minute add on Conor.
    Horrible night.

    Congrats to Nate-backers ;)
     
  14. cs02132 Green Belt

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    Was just listening to "the church of what's happening now" and I guess Denny prokopos (10p black belt/teacher) hit a Diaz/Tate parlay @ ~+1500 for $500!! Plus $1000 on Diaz

    Came away with $10k +
     
  15. cheezeboy White Belt

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    on 5d, between rounds I got Diaz @ Live In-Play Fighting 1001 Nate Diaz +540* vs Conor McGregor

    Hey quick newb 'unit' question. Say my bankroll was $100, and I used it all. Deposited another $100. Do you now say $1 or $2 is your unit value. (ps. thanks to all the regulars, I'm still learning and love this forum!)
     
  16. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    A unit is the amount of whatever your normal bets are. Usually 0.5% to 5% of a bankroll. Moreso 0.5%-2%. What do you mean by used it all? As in lost it all? That would just mean you have poor bankroll management (not an insult or anything), $100 really wasn't your total bankroll, and/or you do not have a unit system.

    I hope this clears some stuff up for you
     

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