Your Official UFN 105 Bets

t6p said:
Beautiful, you deserved that Markos split. My live bet on Markos getting rejected is haunting me today. That had to be one of the best lines in recent memory.
Click to expand...
I woke up this morning and on my way to work was still thinking about how fucking stupid I was not to switch to Markos at +700 lol lines that good can be rare!!! Fuckkk
 
it was +775, too, i didn't even GET the +700

i did 150 prefight (i was pretty steamed) at +230, 150 after rd 1 at +2xx whatever it was, then another 150 at +600 after rd 2, and i couldn't believe +600 went to +700 and then +775, but i was on the hook for so much at that point and stopped
 
Joseph Budden said:
I woke up this morning and on my way to work was still thinking about how fucking stupid I was not to switch to Markos at +700 lol lines that good can be rare!!! Fuckkk
Click to expand...

i'll do you one better and outstupid you. the line was +1000 on betfair and I didn't hit it even though i had plenty time. Felt really good.
 
I take it as a learning experience. The weed settles me down and helps me make nice livebet decisions (like hitting Hendricks -125 after the 2nd). But I can't be drinking coffee during these shows, feels like everytime I do my mind is rushing and it cost me big here.
 
EzFlyer said:
UFN 105 Net: +1,412.36
browne -102: 148 for 145.64 / browne SPLIT: 7.50 for 132.38 / DEC: 22.22 for 99.99 / O1.5: 80 for 100 / lewis SPLIT: 7.50 for 165.60 / lewis RD4: 5 for 92.50 / lewis RD5: 5 for 142.50
hendricks +112: 200 for 223.97 / hendricks RD2: 10 for 95 / hendricks RD3: 10 for 150 / NOT lombard ITD: 99 for 60
sicilia: 45 for 323.75 / sicilia NSC: 60 for 97.80
mutante +111: 115.80 for 167 / mutante ITD: 15 parlays / DEC: 107.50 for 90 / O2.0: 42 for 25
mcmann ITD: 60 for 97.20 / mcmann SUB: 30 for 112.50 - 15 parlays / mcmann RD3: 10 for 95
felder ITD: 15 parlays / felder SUB: 10 for 106 / felder RD3: 10 for 130
taleb +325: 100 for 325 / taleb +3.5: 60 for 96 - 15 parlays / ponz DEC: 40 for 82
markos +363: 450 for 1,635 / markos DEC: 30 for 151.50 / markos NSC: 70 for 154 - 15 parlays
vieira +245: 200 for 490 / vieira SUB: 55 for 490 / vieira RD3: 15 for 311.25 / vieira NSC: 80 for 292
marshman +140: 100 for 140 / marshman RD2: 10 for 100 / marshman NSC: 100 for 142 - 15 parlays / DEC: 33 for 99 / O1.5: 200 for 400 / NOT santos ITD: 128 for 100
meerschaert ITD: 100 for 114 / meerschaert KO: 15 parlays / janes SUB: 11.11 for 99.99
props
SUB O3.5: 10 for 74.80
SUB O4.5: 4 for 108
SUB O5.5: 1 for 125
draws: 25 for 1,590
FOTN: marshman-santos: 10 for 70
parlays
35 RR for (paid +33.32) 1,354.88: mutanteITD/ mcmannSUB/ felderITD/ taleb+3.5/ markosNSC/ marshmanNSC/ meerKO
---

fuck yes. that's what the doctor ordered. best night since 12/10/16 (cub swanson, gastelum, cowboy, etc)

markos split was so fuckin needed, lol. i was so down in the dumps after the marshman O1.5 loss and the vieira decision therafter.. markos win.. hoooooly shit.

p.s. i still say mutante should've won his fight, too.
Click to expand...
So happy for you man. If you ever needed a split to disrupt that crazy funk, it was there!
 
Joseph Budden said:
I woke up this morning and on my way to work was still thinking about how fucking stupid I was not to switch to Markos at +700 lol lines that good can be rare!!! Fuckkk
Click to expand...
kinda with you there in the sense that I only did a quarter unit. But I already had Markos ML and DEC so I did not want to be too overextended. Obviously wish I went 1u+
 
Joseph Budden said:
I take it as a learning experience.
Click to expand...

It seems counter productive but imo those are the most profitable moments in all of MMA, and you almost have to force yourself to bet them, especially if you have the other side.

I saw you mention stock trading months ago (I agree there should be a stocks/investments thread here) and to me moments like that +775 reveal the true nature of MMA capping; betting a line is basically buying a commodity.

MMA capping is imo much closer to trading stocks or currencies than something like poker, because we are dealing with changing value, the line can drastically move pre fight and especially during live betting. (Assuming a close fight) The basic principals of buy low and selling high on each commodity/pick should = an auto bet at such inflated odds.
 
AffectEffect said:
It seems counter productive but imo those are the most profitable moments in all of MMA, and you almost have to force yourself to bet them, especially if you have the other side.

I saw you mention stock trading months ago (I agree there should be a stocks/investments thread here) and to me moments like that +775 reveal the true nature of MMA capping; betting a line is basically buying a commodity.

MMA capping is imo much closer to trading stocks or currencies than something like poker, because we are dealing with changing value, the line can drastically move pre fight and especially during live betting. (Assuming a close fight) The basic principals of buy low and selling high on each commodity/pick should = an auto bet at such inflated odds.
Click to expand...
They definitely are. I keep trying to control my degen nature on fights with no value knowing full well livebetting is soooo profitable if youre good at it. Coffee or no coffee if I had no action on that fight it would've been easy to hit Markos after the 2nd when it was a clear 1-1 to me.

Def agree with the rest. Poker is completely different beast than MMA gambling, stocks are prob the closest thing to compare to.
 
Joseph Budden said:
They definitely are. I keep trying to control my degen nature on fights with no value knowing full well livebetting is soooo profitable if youre good at it. Coffee or no coffee if I had no action on that fight it would've been easy to hit Markos after the 2nd when it was a clear 1-1 to me.

Def agree with the rest. Poker is completely different beast than MMA gambling, stocks are prob the closest thing to compare to.
Click to expand...

randa after r2 was insane. That is my biggest LB profit ever. Honestly something seemed up with Esparza. She had this weird look in her eye akin to Jose Aldo at the Conor fight. I dunno if thats normal for Esparza but she seemed off.

Sorry you missed it man. LB is a bit of an art in itself. I am still learning on this one.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
So happy for you man. If you ever needed a split to disrupt that crazy funk, it was there!
Click to expand...

Thx, dude.. and thx others who have said as much here and in the pbp

It's crazy that a fight that was BARELY on my radar becomes my biggest individual fight win ever. Yes, ever. I'm pretty sure. I lost 3000 on big nog vs mir once, but never won this much on one single fight
 
LEMONZEST said:
randa after r2 was insane. That is my biggest LB profit ever. Honestly something seemed up with Esparza. She had this weird look in her eye akin to Jose Aldo at the Conor fight. I dunno if thats normal for Esparza but she seemed off.

Sorry you missed it man. LB is a bit of an art in itself. I am still learning on this one.
Click to expand...

I swear to god I thought I saw something in Carla's eye, too.. while they announced her. It's why I added to Randa just before fight started and it prolly influenced me to grab my huevos and keep adding live (part)
 
EzFlyer said:
I swear to god I thought I saw something in Carla's eye, too.. while they announced her. It's why I added to Randa just before fight started and it prolly influenced me to grab my huevos and keep adding live (part)
Click to expand...

ok cool. glad to hear you confirm that so it is not just me making shit up. I actually really like making last minute bets. Sometimes Stann will mention like this guy has 8 first round finishes or something I didn't think of.

Or during the walkout sometimes people seem like
a. they are ready to kill or
b. seem scared or a bit too happy go lucky.

For example in this last event Cezar came out looking ready to kill (although in this case it worked against me).

It is almost like poker in that you are trying to get a read off of their body language etc. as they walk out. In general I think if people are too happy during walk out or talking to the crowd etc. that is a red flag. Of course some people have different personalities and can do that stuff. But in general if they are basking in the moment too much its not good. I want to see a stone cold focus. (yet not looking too nervous....lol)
 
I thought Carla looked off/nervous too while they were announcing names, etc. I am not surprised, though. She is mentally weak like I brought up. Add in the fact it was also a grudge match which probably added to it
 
Hendricks (+130) $40 to win $52
Hendricks Dec (+300) $13.33 to win $40
Hendricks Round 3 (+1800) $2.22 to win $40.
$1 Round Robin - 2's and 3 - Hendricks Round 3 + Felder Round 3 + Travis Browne - $4 to win $845.76
$0.50 Round Robin - 3's and 4's - Browne + Hendricks Round 3 + Tucker Round 3 + Felder Round 3 - $2.50 to win $5,134.18

Small time compared to some of you boys but I'm still learning. +$83.28 (2.08U).
 
iGnP said:

+3.67u

Damn you, Travis
Click to expand...

I was pissed for you bro. Idk what the fuck he was doing in that second round and idk why he didn't go for the kill when the fat fuck was bent over holding his stomach 3x.
 
timmyclax22 said:
I was pissed for you bro. Idk what the fuck he was doing in that second round and idk why he didn't go for the kill when the fat fuck was bent over holding his stomach 3x.
Click to expand...
Haha now I know to fully hedge when my last leg is a flake.
 
So after mitrione/fedor cancellation fight I cashed in a small parlay and won $500. Overall profit was then 6,2K. Got robbed again badly this event. Losy 1,5K lol. Fell down to 4,7K. I'm not regretting my plays. Carla, Vieira and Ferreira should have gotten the decision in my eyes. Funny thing is I capped all the fights correctly where we had a clear winner. Thats what I am happy about. I would be really mad of myself if I bet on a guy who loses 30-27. Had carla got the decision she deserved... ohh. It is what it is. Terrible robberies. I'll learn from this.


Ferreira $300 to win $255
Santos $300 to win $171
Meerschaert $300 to win $100
Vieira $300 to win $500
Hendricks $300 to win $390
Travis $300 to win $270
________________________
-$240

Travis/Ferreira/Santos/Felder $300 to win $2076
Travis/Hendricks/Meercharet $300 to win $1752
Esparza+Felder+Browne/Derrick O1.5+Sicilia/Tucker O1.5 $192 to win $1230
Panic parlay Hendricks/Travis $450
_______________________________________________________________________
-$1250
 
OK I think I am finished with putting in plays so here is what I've got all together:

Total UFC Fight Night 105 Risk: 6.89u
Total Win/Loss: -0.54u

.5u on Browne/Lewis O1.5 @-105
(won .48u on this fight)

.5u on Hendricks ML @+125
.15u on Hendricks DEC @+225
.05u on Hendricks R3 @+1500
.01u on HendricksLombard DRAW +6250
(won .96u on this fight)

1.23u on Ferreira ML @-123
.2u on Ferreira DEC @+190
.05u on Ferreira SUB @+500
.01u on Ferreira/Elias DRAW @+5750
(lost 1.49u on this fight/robbery)

.5u on MarshmanSantos O1.5 @+179
.5u on MarshmanSantos O1.5 @+205
.3u on MarshmanSantos DEC @+270
(lost 1.3u on this fight, 9 more seconds!!! DAMN)

.15u on McMann SUB @+225
(won .34u on this fight)

Luckily I added this gem to save my night from being a total disaster

2.37u on Tucker ML @-171
(won 1.39u on this fight)

Also added this one when I saw how badly the judges were leaning towards the home country fighters but it didn't go to the cards

0.1u on Ricci ML @+290
(lost 0.1u on this fight)

Parlays:
.5u on BrowneLewis O1.5/Hendricks/Ferreira to win 3.45u
.15u on BrowneLewis O1.5/MarshSantos O1.5/Ferreira to win 1.45u
.05u on BrownLewis O1.5/MarshSantos O1.5/Hendricks/Ferriera/Meers/McMann to win 1.56u
(lost 0.7u on parlays, Mutante robbery cost me a 3.45u win as it was my only leg that lost on the first one)


My biggest takeaway from this night was to bet any underdog from Canada where I think the fight will end in a decision if the fight is located in Canada.

That being said, if Mutante decision is judged correctly and Yamasaki was the ref for Marsh/Santos it would have been a HUGE night for me.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,238,105
Messages
55,538,298
Members
174,820
Latest member
Víctor Hugo Teco

Share this page

Back
Top