Official UFC on FOX 18 Thread

[EzFlyer]

i like the decision odds, too, and i think that's a LOT more likely than a ko, personally

 

[EzFlyer]

whoa. NOT rothwell ITD is -230? the f? i'm betting this.

 

[Sham5916910]

i just went back in time and dug it up lol

it was was "only" 50k$ and just missed diabate r3

13.00 - Matthew Riddle - To Win By Split / Majority Decision
4.50 - James Te Huna - To Win By Unanimous Decision
2.40 - Gunnar Nelson - To Win By Unanimous Decision
29.00 - Cyrille Diabate - Runde 3 Cyrille Diabate - Jimi Manuwa
4.50 - Cub Swanson - Point
4.00 - Renan Barao - Submission

5.00 for 366444.00 Danish Valuta

Damn you must have been gutted the voodoo curse hit again!

 

[Jae Gibbz]

whoa. NOT rothwell ITD is -230? the f? i'm betting this.

I know this doesn't exactly scream value, and I rarely ever hit lines this high. But I had Cain NOT by SUB -750 in a bunch of open parlays. Now I have to fill empty open parlays for 3u combined...

 

[Jae Gibbz]

i just went back in time and dug it up lol

it was was "only" 50k$ and just missed diabate r3

13.00 - Matthew Riddle - To Win By Split / Majority Decision
4.50 - James Te Huna - To Win By Unanimous Decision
2.40 - Gunnar Nelson - To Win By Unanimous Decision
29.00 - Cyrille Diabate - Runde 3 Cyrille Diabate - Jimi Manuwa
4.50 - Cub Swanson - Point
4.00 - Renan Barao - Submission

5.00 for 366444.00 Danish Valuta

Damn, that sucks man.

Off-topic, but I kind of miss Matthew Riddle now that I think about it

 

[Sham5916910]

Bader decision +775

Put down 1.5 u.

I really like this line given Bader goes to decision so often and I expect him to play it safe with lots of grinding/clinching

Bader is not a grinder/clincher it's not his style it's not his strength. I expect to see very little clinching on the fence and if there is I expect AJ to be able to dis-engage pretty easily. Most of Bader's takedown attempts are in the middle.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I think it's possible Bader can make it into a fight with Rumble. You can never trust a guy who gasses like Rumble does and gives up the RNC. Especially as a favorite and especially when his ITD is as juiced as it is. I love betting on Rumble as a dog though.

Bader has definitely looked improved in his striking and I think he has confidence in it too that he'll probably elect to stand with Johnson for the most part instead of trying for desperate TDs.

He has developed a good left hand. He jabbed the shit out of Rashad and busted him up good. And he almost KO'd Glover with a left hook if I recall correctly. He's been asking for a title shot so I gotta think he believes he's in his physical prime.

With the power that Rumble has he's never out of a fight but I don't feel the need to bet on him at -325. There are many other better spots on this card.

 

[MMAJay]

Am I the only one who's not touching the main event at all. There are really no bets on this fight that I think is a "lock"

 

[Oblivian]

Ferreira's odds are getting absurd. I think people are forgetting that he's a solid grappler since a lot of his fights have been standing. He's probably the better striker and on par with Mercier on the ground.

 

[vkram]

I can still get OAM @ -250, not sure if I should hit that or wait for Ferreira's odds to increase further.

 

[Sham5916910]

I think it's possible Bader can make it into a fight with Rumble. You can never trust a guy who gasses like Rumble does and gives up the RNC. Especially as a favorite and especially when his ITD is as juiced as it is. I love betting on Rumble as a dog though.

Bader has definitely looked improved in his striking and I think he has confidence in it too that he'll probably elect to stand with Johnson for the most part instead of trying for desperate TDs.

He has developed a good left hand. He jabbed the shit out of Rashad and busted him up good. And he almost KO'd Glover with a left hook if I recall correctly. He's been asking for a title shot so I gotta think he believes he's in his physical prime.

With the power that Rumble has he's never out of a fight but I don't feel the need to bet on him at -325. There are many other better spots on this card.

If like you say Bader elects to stand with AJ I highly doubt AJ will gas. Bader brings no pressure standing and AJ has only shown himself to slow down in his second UFC run when he is put on his back and pounded. After three rounds with Davis he looked absolutely fine. Also Evans looked old in their fight after two years out and Maldonado also rocked Glover after being beaten half to death.

Bader elects for desperate takedowns when cornered and swarmed watch for AJ's uppercut to bring home the W.

 

[Sham5916910]

Ferreira's odds are getting absurd. I think people are forgetting that he's a solid grappler since a lot of his fights have been standing. He's probably the better striker and on par with Mercier on the ground.

Def looking forward to lb this fight! OAM is being overhyped for sure.

 

[clitasauras rex]

Does no one think barnett sub 5 to 2 i dont know to much about rothwell ground game but barnett sub could happen

 

[Agent Mulder]

Barnett r3 +1600? Exhausting Ben with cage work for 2 rounds and then sub in the 3rd? Could happen.

 

[Card]

 

[Sham5916910]

Just reviewing Ellenberger. Oh my his physique has changed drastically. Just compared him in Hieron fight to Wonderboy fight big difference.

 

[mkess101]

If like you say Bader elects to stand with AJ I highly doubt AJ will gas. Bader brings no pressure standing and AJ has only shown himself to slow down in his second UFC run when he is put on his back and pounded. After three rounds with Davis he looked absolutely fine. Also Evans looked old in their fight after two years out and Maldonado also rocked Glover after being beaten half to death.

Bader elects for desperate takedowns when cornered and swarmed watch for AJ's uppercut to bring home the W.

I agree with a lot of this but honestly when is the last time Rumble "cornered and swarmed"...anyone? I don't think I can remember him using that strategy even once. Maybe I missed a fight somewhere along the line where he did it but if there was one I sure don't recall it. Rumble is a brutal counter puncher and guys willing to stand in the pocket with him most often pay, but he's not a guy who is super adept at cutting off the cage and chasing people down.

I agree Rumble most likely won't gas if it's Bader just circling him and looking to jab and avoid exchanges. My guess is that Bader is going to use that as his strategy early then once Rumble gets frustrated by Bader's unwillingness to engage, Bader will change levels and try to take Rumble down as Rumble closes distance. If you look at Bader vs Rashad, Bader's striking is simply on a completely different level than what Phil Davis brought to Rumble. Rashad did have some rust it looked like, but even given that Bader's footwork and movement were just levels above what Davis has ever shown.

I think if you are going to bet Rumble, just bet him rd 1 and MAYBE rd 2. If he wins I think it's because I'm completely wrong about Bader's strategy and Bader either does start out willing to engage or shooting for desperate takedowns from the start. After rd 2 I think Rumble's chances of winning drop in a big way. I'm still trying to figure out how to bet it honestly. I have over 1.5 in a couple small parlays for now.

 

[mkess101]

Does no one think barnett sub 5 to 2 i dont know to much about rothwell ground game but barnett sub could happen

If Josh can get him down yeah, but Ben is bigger and I think there's a pretty good chance his tdd holds up. I don't think it's a bad bet, just don't know if there's a ton of value there.

Edit: 5/2 seems like a pretty bad line btw. 5d has Josh sub at +375. I think I'm gonna hit that small. Seems like there's some value at this price, at least a little. I already have bets on over 1.5 and Rothwell by KO/TKO so a late sub by Josh or KO by Ben would be perfect for me.

 

[EzFlyer]

I know this doesn't exactly scream value, and I rarely ever hit lines this high. But I had Cain NOT by SUB -750 in a bunch of open parlays. Now I have to fill empty open parlays for 3u combined...

I was talking about that -750 with some guys, I agree. I went to do the same thing, but it jumped to -1000ish .. They beat me to it.

-1000 honestly has "value" too but the payout is so negligible that I don't think in ever gonna lay that on anything


Edit:
Yeaaa im not awake yet.

Try not to force any plays to close those parlays. If you wanted to bet something normally go ahead, but those risk amounts are no going anywhere

 

[Card]

Barnett saying fighting is not the only thing in his life... is a red flag. He said he it never was, he says he has plenty of things to keep him busy.