Official UFN 82** Thread

[zomb]

used 888sport for live betting last night, got Natal @ 1.40 at the end of first, not sure what the odds were on bet365.

yeah I've never been much into livebetting since my bettinglimits on everything on bet365/888/unibet is $5, and Pinnacle doesn't offer livebetting.

Might be that they're just as good, people are always just praising bet365 for their sometimes amazing lines

 

[mkess101]

Wonderboy getting bet. People liking his chances better in a 5 rounder is my guess.

Down to +180 on 5d. Glad I got my bet in early.

 

[Sham5916910]

yeah I've never been much into livebetting since my bettinglimits on everything on bet365/888/unibet is $5, and Pinnacle doesn't offer livebetting.

Might be that they're just as good, people are always just praising bet365 for their sometimes amazing lines

365 have amazing lb lines. Reis +250 dec end of r1. Barb +275 when on top smashing Sage. CDF dec something like +275 end of r1. My only regret is i didnt go bigger last night.

 

[vkram]

Interested to see what odds we will get on Mickey Gall...

 

[Joseph Budden]

Interested to see what odds we will get on Mickey Gall...

Going completely degen and betting Michael Jackson just because his name is Michael Jackson

 

[vkram]

Going completely degen and betting Michael Jackson just because his name is Michael Jackson

I tried doing a bit of research on him last week whilst bored. He describes himself as:

"a Jack of Many Trades"
"Personality"
"Professional Fighter"
"Houston Photographer"
"Houston Videographer"

So it seems that he doesn't fight/train full time and his only fight on Sherdog is a UD loss over 6 years ago.

 

[lefontes]

365 have amazing lb lines. Reis +250 dec end of r1. Barb +275 when on top smashing Sage. CDF dec something like +275 end of r1. My only regret is i didnt go bigger last night.

I bet yesterday between rounds but appears just ML option im 365...

Props just before the fights.

 

[Sham5916910]

I bet yesterday between rounds but appears just ML option im 365...

Props just before the fights.

365 offers props between rounds.

 

[FutureGOAT]

Awesome thanks a lot guys. I'll look into those. Yeah I'm thinking of that Makovsky by decision.. I also wanted to bet on Misha Cirkunov. Trained with him, and he is going to do damage.

 

[EzFlyer]

I need to watch tape but think i like Spencer. Big fade on Pyle from me 40 now and dodgy chin. Think Pyle has difficulty getting this to mat and standing at range he is at a disadvantage. I remember at range Waldburger was holding his own standing. Do need to watch tape tho.

What do you guys think line will be? -150 Spencer optimistic?

i wouldn't play spencer -150, so it's not optimistic for me.. he's an undersized 170 w/no power and no ground, never liked that guy. yea, pyle's old and all now, but he has way more power on the feet and a way better groundgame if he could get it there (he is mostly a striker in his older days, i know, he's changed that up)

i'd play pyle as a dog, prolly

 

[Sham5916910]

i wouldn't play spencer -150, so it's not optimistic for me.. he's an undersized 170 w/no power and no ground, never liked that guy. yea, pyle's old and all now, but he has way more power on the feet and a way better groundgame if he could get it there (he is mostly a striker in his older days, i know, he's changed that up)

i'd play pyle as a dog, prolly

Yeah im prob reaching a little as nothing jumping out at me for this card. Im also fading Pyle more than rating Spencer. Will have a look at some tape.

 

[kenCs]

I'm gonna change my betting strategy. I noticed in all of my big winning nights, I always make a killing on LB. So for prebets I'll limit how much I bet on ML unless I really like it. The Over/Under bets I make seem to hit most of the time as well. LB is just too profitable and seriously so.

 

[Ukram]

Yeah im prob reaching a little as nothing jumping out at me for this card. Im also fading Pyle more than rating Spencer. Will have a look at some tape.

Profiles for both guys with all recent fights linked properly for once
http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Sean-Spencer?id=
http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Mike-Pyle

Already watched tape on both guys, sean's a good striker, nice volume and has shown good ttd but not against muscular and heavy built grapplers. Pyle is battle worn @ 40, but he is the better overall skilled fighter, can strike and has good submissions so good at everything. Its hard to not like Sean as the fav coming in + he should not have to worry to much about those take downs since pyle tends to stand more so and Sean has slightly better volume.

Sean decision or the others sounds ok, maybe su if lines good but would not be to heavy on him.

 

[Sham5916910]

I just watched Sean's last three fights (Garcia, Thiago, Pendred). I need to watch Pyle tape but im 2-0 betting on Pyle fights so have a decent grasp i feel altho i will watch tape to remind me of his standup and takedowns.

Ez mentioned Sean having no power but he had the three aforementioned guys badly hurt two of them twice. Ok he didnt finish but they are all tough guys Pyle i doubt would have survived his chin is shot. If i remember rightly his losses to Mein and Brown were pretty much one punch knockouts and altho they bang if Sean lands his right hand i cant see Pyle recovering.

Sean's tdd is not great but he is great at scrambling straight back to his feet out of them three fights no one had him down for more than 30 seconds even a gorilla like Garcia couldnt hold him down. He engaged in the grappling with Thiago a BJJ bb and did fine cut him up mounted him and took his back. I dont recommend he engages with Pyle on the mat but he is competent in the mat.

As i said need to remind myself of Pyle's takedowns and striking at range (i know clinch is his strong point) but unless i see something i dont think im going to see i will take Sean if u can get him close to evens. I think -200 or above i will avoid.

 

[Sham5916910]

I'm gonna change my betting strategy. I noticed in all of my big winning nights, I always make a killing on LB. So for prebets I'll limit how much I bet on ML unless I really like it. The Over/Under bets I make seem to hit most of the time as well. LB is just too profitable and seriously so.

Pre-bets have always worked for me but thrown myself into lb properly for first time last two cards and won big both times. Will generally stick to pre bets but for cards im struggling such as the next card i may not make any pre bets and lb exclusuvely when im not getting any confident leans.

 

[mkess101]

I'm gonna change my betting strategy. I noticed in all of my big winning nights, I always make a killing on LB. So for prebets I'll limit how much I bet on ML unless I really like it. The Over/Under bets I make seem to hit most of the time as well. LB is just too profitable and seriously so.

I'm so hit or miss with LB. Sometimes it saves my ass, sometimes I end up hedging away too much profit.

I have never tracked, but I'm guessing I have similar success overall with pre fight vs live.

 

[Ukram]

mickey gall info
Interview

(started jiu jitsu @ 16 and loved it, trained with ufc miller bros and currently trains there)

only mma fight vid available I think


Losing at the NAGA 2015 grappling competition


did some training at American top team


Other info:
A brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu who has trained at Gracie New Jersey under the tutelage of David Adiv – a man who has been deemed "The Brain" by Rickson Gracie – since the age of 16, many might expect Gall to devise a gameplan centered around taking Punk to the mat and searching for the submission.

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/1/6...ipates-bout-with-cm-punk-ufc-debut-dana-white

Looks like a ground fighter who likes to go for subs, but has basic striking overall, if he wins this fight with m.jackson he may get to fight CM Punk.

Mike Jackson info + footage
Very hard to find info, end up with parody fights of micheal jackson king of pop instead but....

Previous fight in 2012


Interview here from inside mma:
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DXG0XXCrlo
Claims in the interview its a striking vs ground game fighter match up but gall won't get that take down to start his game, predicts a r2 ko)

Looks to be a good striker, nice head movement and foot work with decent boxing and jabs. Has a pro boxing background, some kickboxing also. Also if he wins get too gets CM punk fight.

 

[Ukram]

As i said need to remind myself of Pyle's takedowns and striking at range (i know clinch is his strong point) but unless i see something i dont think im going to see i will take Sean if u can get him close to evens. I think -200 or above i will avoid.

Pyle is sneaky in clinches especially with trips, also has an active guard off his back tends to hunt for subs or get back to better positions, but take downs wise seen him go for some singles from across the ring which were easily telegraphed and stuffed. I oddly felt sean did well with ttd against dober pretty much stuffed them all it took total beast like garcia or pendred to get some success with tds and even then pendred did not do so great, felt sean hurt pendred badly in r1 few times, I think sean edged that fight but he totally lost against garcia no way was that a split win for garcia clear decision.

Do currently like Sean being the younger, faster and more fluid striker, perhaps not the most powerful but he has better volume and good head movement to avoid trouble, he may have to get out of those pyle mt plums during clinch exchanges though otherwise he will eat knees n elbows!

 

[rille31]

Personally I use 888sport (same as unibet) and betway, they offer slightly more props than bet365. They will add more fights closer to the event. Also bet365 doesn't offer lines for any other events apart from the UFC, whilst 888sport/Unibet/Betway etc offer lines Bellator, Invicta, WSOF etc.

Bet365 usually offers bellator lines, they are under other sports not the regular ufc/mma section

 

[Ukram]

Watched tape on Noad and Diego, Noad's an 2nd degree black belt in judo, also a black belt bjj also won a 2010 world jiu jitsu title. Diego pretty much loads up on all his punches and looks for take downs to get rounds in the bag, his ufc profile list his fighting style as, boxing and take downs and he is right. He does come from a boxing background also, keeps his hands high and chin tucked looking for heavy counters as opponents close in, he is also heavy and strong in top position looking to control.

Noad should be the more technical striker with slightly better volume and experience. On the ground Noad does have the skills to survive subs and is also using his bjj ground game to work subs, gain better positions and reversals too. I do have concerns though with noad while he is a former bjj world champ + black belt he has been taken down and controlled by ufc tier opponents (siler/backstrom) at times, and diego is a heavy muscular guy, he could perhaps control noad on top here bit more better since its his style, sure he struggled with rubio in his last fight at times but some YT lower tier fights show him with a strong top game. Its a closer fight but I do still like Noad su, but would hedge with diego decision. Think the overs hits also.

Diegos last fight
http://www.ufc.tv/video/diego-rivas-vs-rodolfo-rubio-ufc-fight-night

Some older YT fights I spotted:

Spoiler

Noads last fight (4th fight in so ffw to it)
http://www.ufc.tv/video/jedrzejczyk-vs-penne-fight-pass-prelims