General MMA discussion and future lines - June 2016

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@kenCs and @Joseph Budden

Cowboy vs Conor:

Why would you be confident in Conor at all? I don't think I can remember Cowboy ever being rocked by a head strike and while Diaz has a terrific chin, I think it's also safe to say Conor's power at higher weight classes isn't wrecking guys like it is at FW. Conor could definitely land a body kick like Pettis did and finish Cowboy, but other than that I'm not sure his path to victory. Cowboy has improved his offensive wrestling a TON, and would be the naturally bigger guy. I think at some point he'd get Conor to the mat. In fact I don't think it would take that long. And from there it's a mismatch.

I cannot imagine laying any kind of juice at all on Conor if this fight ever happened. Not that he couldn't win it, but could not favor him. No way. At + odds would be on Cowboy for sure.
 
Conor via controlling the range and superior boxing. Aldo wasn't KOd either before Conor. Mendes was KOd once before Lord Conor. And besides, Conors liver shot is lethal. One of the best punches he landed on Nate in their fight.
 
mkess101 said:
@kenCs and @Joseph Budden

Cowboy vs Conor:

Why would you be confident in Conor at all? I don't think I can remember Cowboy ever being rocked by a head strike and while Diaz has a terrific chin, I think it's also safe to say Conor's power at higher weight classes isn't wrecking guys like it is at FW. Conor could definitely land a body kick like Pettis did and finish Cowboy, but other than that I'm not sure his path to victory. Cowboy has improved his offensive wrestling a TON, and would be the naturally bigger guy. I think at some point he'd get Conor to the mat. In fact I don't think it would take that long. And from there it's a mismatch.

I cannot imagine laying any kind of juice at all on Conor if this fight ever happened. Not that he couldn't win it, but could not favor him. No way. At + odds would be on Cowboy for sure.
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Cowboy has an issue against decent boxing. Conor has excellent MMA boxing. Conor is also southpaw and has deadly body shot and has that left kick primed for Cerrones body. I don't think Cowboy can take that left hand. I would place money on him at -150 or better.
 
kenCs said:
Cowboy has an issue against decent boxing. Conor has excellent MMA boxing. Conor is also southpaw and has deadly body shot and has that left kick primed for Cerrones body. I don't think Cowboy can take that left hand. I would place money on him at -150 or better.
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I think Cowboy would eat that left hand and smile. Now, a body kick landed solidly is a different story LOL...

Maybe his ego would get in the way, but I just can't imagine Cowboy not taking Conor down and working him over on the mat.
 
mkess101 said:
I think Cowboy would eat that left hand and smile. Now, a body kick landed solidly is a different story LOL...

Maybe his ego would get in the way, but I just can't imagine Cowboy not taking Conor down and working him over on the mat.
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Also when fighting Conor, you aren't just fighting him, you're fighting the pressure from the crowd who is undoubtedly pro-Conor. Him taunting Cerrone will just enrage him to try knock him out instead of taking it to the ground and subbing Conor. If this fight happens, Cerrone should go in with a solid gameplan thats TD heavy and stick to it otherwise he is gonna have a bad night.

Its not the power alone of the left hand but the timing of it. Shots that come from over the shoulder especially when Conor is putting his whole bodyweight behind it means Cerrone is gonna feel it. Look at Rockhold/Bisping 2, the shot that crumbled him was that left hand over the shoulder.
 
kenCs said:
Also when fighting Conor, you aren't just fighting him, you're fighting the pressure from the crowd who is undoubtedly pro-Conor. Him taunting Cerrone will just enrage him to try knock him out instead of taking it to the ground and subbing Conor. If this fight happens, Cerrone should go in with a solid gameplan thats TD heavy and stick to it otherwise he is gonna have a bad night.

Its not the power alone of the left hand but the timing of it. Shots that come from over the shoulder especially when Conor is putting his whole bodyweight behind it means Cerrone is gonna feel it. Look at Rockhold/Bisping 2, the shot that crumbled him was that left hand over the shoulder.
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I'd hope if that fight is made that Greg Jackson would be the counter to the Conor related pressure. Also, depending on where the fight took place the crowd might not be totally pro Conor. Yeah he'd have more fans regardless but Cowboy is a fan favorite. I understand it's a totally different level but the bloom is a bit off the rose for Conor now too. Yeah he's an amazing FW but we saw what happened the first time he moved up in weight.

Either way, it's a fight I think everyone would love to see. Hell I can't wait for Conor/Nate II. I have $ on Nate so I guess I have to root for him but that said I think Conor-mania is fun for the sport so him winning (esp in spectacular fashion) would be cool for entertainment reasons. I can't see him having any of his usual talk leading up to this next fight, but if he wins he can get right back to it.
 
mkess101 said:
I'd hope if that fight is made that Greg Jackson would be the counter to the Conor related pressure. Also, depending on where the fight took place the crowd might not be totally pro Conor. Yeah he'd have more fans regardless but Cowboy is a fan favorite. I understand it's a totally different level but the bloom is a bit off the rose for Conor now too. Yeah he's an amazing FW but we saw what happened the first time he moved up in weight.

Either way, it's a fight I think everyone would love to see. Hell I can't wait for Conor/Nate II. I have $ on Nate so I guess I have to root for him but that said I think Conor-mania is fun for the sport so him winning (esp in spectacular fashion) would be cool for entertainment reasons. I can't see him having any of his usual talk leading up to this next fight, but if he wins he can get right back to it.
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As much as I like Conor, he is one of those guys who is too big for FW but just on the smaller side at 155lbs. Anywhere this fight takes place, the crowd will be pro Conor hugely. Hell he fights a Las Vegas and its like he has home side advantage. Crazy to think that fwhen you consider how small Ireland is and how many American fans Conor has. Greg Jackson and co ould be wise to employ a strategy tailored to the weaknesses of Conor. They have done it before in Nick Diaz vs Carlos Condit were we expected a FOTY bloody match like it was advertised and turned out to be Condit point fighting. It may not satisfy people but Cerrone comes out with the win and Greg Jackson gets called a sport killer again.

For the Nate/Conor match up, Im more excited for the pressers than the actual fight aswell. Lets hope we get a competitive fight though and not Nate tearing Conor a new one after the second.
 
kenCs said:
As much as I like Conor, he is one of those guys who is too big for FW but just on the smaller side at 155lbs. Anywhere this fight takes place, the crowd will be pro Conor hugely. Hell he fights a Las Vegas and its like he has home side advantage. Crazy to think that fwhen you consider how small Ireland is and how many American fans Conor has. Greg Jackson and co ould be wise to employ a strategy tailored to the weaknesses of Conor. They have done it before in Nick Diaz vs Carlos Condit were we expected a FOTY bloody match like it was advertised and turned out to be Condit point fighting. It may not satisfy people but Cerrone comes out with the win and Greg Jackson gets called a sport killer again.

For the Nate/Conor match up, Im more excited for the pressers than the actual fight aswell. Lets hope we get a competitive fight though and not Nate tearing Conor a new one after the second.
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Well as far as a good Jackson gameplan for Cowboy vs Conor, I don't think we'd see another one like what Condit did LOL. Cowboy trying to point fight Conor on the outside would be really dumb. Conor would pick him apart. Too much speed. And if it's a takedown heavy approach and is successful, hard to see Conor surviving on the mat very long. Cowboy is a straight up elite MMA grappler, and is naturally bigger. I think Conor maybe survives for a bit but if it's on the ground for any period of time he ends up tapping.

The pressers are going to be sooooooooooooooooooo interesting leading up to this rematch. Are we gonna see a subdued Conor that basically just says "Wait and see, it won't be like the first fight". It's just impossible for me to imagine him acting as brash as he previously has. I mean, everyone saw what happened. Plenty of guys lose badly the first time and then win the rematch (Bisping just did) and Conor could too, but can he really come into this thing with a bunch of bravado acting like it's a foregone conclusion he wins (like he did in all his fights prior to the last one)? Can't see him doing it.
 
mkess101 said:
Well as far as a good Jackson gameplan for Cowboy vs Conor, I don't think we'd see another one like what Condit did LOL. Cowboy trying to point fight Conor on the outside would be really dumb. Conor would pick him apart. Too much speed. And if it's a takedown heavy approach and is successful, hard to see Conor surviving on the mat very long. Cowboy is a straight up elite MMA grappler, and is naturally bigger. I think Conor maybe survives for a bit but if it's on the ground for any period of time he ends up tapping.

The pressers are going to be sooooooooooooooooooo interesting leading up to this rematch. Are we gonna see a subdued Conor that basically just says "Wait and see, it won't be like the first fight". It's just impossible for me to imagine him acting as brash as he previously has. I mean, everyone saw what happened. Plenty of guys lose badly the first time and then win the rematch (Bisping just did) and Conor could too, but can he really come into this thing with a bunch of bravado acting like it's a foregone conclusion he wins (like he did in all his fights prior to the last one)? Can't see him doing it.
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Shit I couldnt edit so it sounded like the Condit strat would work on Conor. I meant a strategy that wouldnt be fan friendly like Condit's strategy against Nick Diaz. Cerrone doesnt have the footwork to outpoint Conor lol. Greg will certainly employ a TD heavy gameplan. Jacksons will be called a sport killer after that TD heavy strat though cause we were promised a bloody fight in the Nick/Condit fight and they ended up point fighting. Typing from a phone is a pain.

Conor will surely be more reserved and less brash in the pressers. But he is a lot more eloquent than Diaz ala Bisping was to Rockhold so we may still get the funny Conor
 
I think I said before how Cerrone beats Conor so the post u just quoted was just written wrong from a phone.
 
kenCs said:
Shit I couldnt edit so it sounded like the Condit strat would work on Conor. I meant a strategy that wouldnt be fan friendly like Condit's strategy against Nick Diaz. Cerrone doesnt have the footwork to outpoint Conor lol. Greg will certainly employ a TD heavy gameplan. Jacksons will be called a sport killer after that TD heavy strat though cause we were promised a bloody fight in the Nick/Condit fight and they ended up point fighting. Typing from a phone is a pain.

Conor will surely be more reserved and less brash in the pressers. But he is a lot more eloquent than Diaz ala Bisping was to Rockhold so we may still get the funny Conor
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Ahh I gotcha. Well if Cowboy took Conor down and subbed him and fans call that killing the sport they need a new hobby. Cerrone isn't a lay n pray guy. If he takes Conor down, he's looking to finish. Nonstop.

Funny Conor with a bit of humility could be fun. But long term, arrogant Conor is what's best for the sport. Way more interesting.
 
mkess101 said:
Ahh I gotcha. Well if Cowboy took Conor down and subbed him and fans call that killing the sport they need a new hobby. Cerrone isn't a lay n pray guy. If he takes Conor down, he's looking to finish. Nonstop.

Funny Conor with a bit of humility could be fun. But long term, arrogant Conor is what's best for the sport. Way more interesting.
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Dude the facebook posts about Duaz not beating Conor because he just tapped him are ridiculous. These guys actually think MMA fighter just stand and bang and knock each other out or its bullshit. TBH Causals are whats good for the sport cause they actually buy PPVs. It doesnt matter how minimal their knowledge of the sport is. Its almost like a Tyson type deal were casuals buy just to watch him KO boxers silly. Casuals wanna see Conor KO people and not lose.
 
Just released on 5D. Fabio's line not as good as a few other smaller books. Anyone daring to bet this?

Fabio Maldonado +600
Fedor Emelianenko -1200

Peter Graham +575
Vitaly Minakov -1125
 
mkess101 said:
@kenCs and @Joseph Budden

Cowboy vs Conor:

Why would you be confident in Conor at all? I don't think I can remember Cowboy ever being rocked by a head strike
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Not up to speed in the convo but I think cowboy got rocked bad by Melvin guilard.
From memory though and I could be mistaken
 
Bless said:
MarathonBet released some odds on a few Russian fights this weekend:

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Fedor -1539 lol
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Stabbing attila wegh +385 and brawldonado +860
 
Unibet has o1.5 Fedor/Maldonado +110. Not bad considering how much punishment Maldonado can take. Under sitting at -149.
 
RyuDave said:
Not up to speed in the convo but I think cowboy got rocked bad by Melvin guilard.
From memory though and I could be mistaken
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He got stung. I guess it can be debated what "rocked" is. And honestly, for all his flaws, Gullard hits like a freaking truck. He has LHW power and was a gigantic dude at 155. Just eons more power than Conor.
 
Joseph Budden said:
All the talk of those pesky 5d lines makers spying on us. Lets just say i'm with you as far as playing Brooks ML if its above -200, that aint happening
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cagebrain said:
Guys we really shouldnt talk odds before the line drops.
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Makes no difference to the lines if we talk about them in here imo, bookies don't set their lines based on forum threads, and if they do that's probably a good thing for us lol
 
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