UFC 202 - McGoat vs Diaz II - Vegas

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DevilsAvocado said:
I don't hate, I'm just making an observation on your rather obvious ego issues, while still praising you as a capper. My opinion on this fight is that Conor can lose this fight and still have a reasonable UFC career/credibility (i.e go back to 145), what he doesn't want is to look like a retard doing so, he prob wants to avoid going out there and losin in the exact same fashion and I expect he will be pacing himself way more than 1st fight. His prediction of a 2nd round finish is just a stupid random statement to get people excited. We've seen that its unlikely he can finish Nate and against a careful Conor it's unlikely Nate can get an early KO. If this somehow hits the mat then it looks quite grim for Conor, but there's no reason to believe it will, as long as Conor is fresh. For all these reasons I got 7u on over 2.5 at +120, 2u on McGregor by decision at +610 and I will be live betting nate. Im also considering nate r3, r4, r5.
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If you think Mcgregor is going to fade after 2nd rd, so that Nate rd3, 4 and 5 are good bets,why do you also think he'll win enough rfs for a dec
 
First of all I have to say that I never liked McGregor, nor was I a big fan of Diaz, but that was until he wooped Mcgregor in the first fight. Alot have already been said, so I don't want to get into a big analysis.
I have 3,5u on Diaz @ +110 and my original plan was to add more if the line got better or just wait till after R1 and LB Diaz. After this big circus and all the interviews, im even more confident in Diaz. I wouldn't get surprised if McGregor won, but Diaz really has the upperhand here. It was hard enough for McGregor to go out and continue with his trashtalk after getting beat, and he was pretty quiet in the different conferences. The first time he really got back to his old style of trashtalking was in his own gym with himself at the press. I just love that Diaz messes it up for McGregor in the new conference, so he didn't got the chance to start anything, and it was even better that Diaz really got into McGregor head instead.

McGregor and his camp has talked alot about being able to go for 5 rounds and preparing for 5 rounds, but his coaches and himself predict it to end in the second round by stoppage. To me it sounds like they all know that he won't be able to win the fight should it go 5 rounds, and it just help Diaz even more if McGregor is a hothead coming in this saturday. I think the mental game will take a "toll2 on McGregor, and he'll find a way to mess it up for himself by not following an eventual gameplan. I really wouldn't be surprised if he just fight like a maddog because he wants the early stoppage so badly. He even said that his gameplan would be the same with alot ofpressure from the start and not give Diaz any space. I don't see him going out there and control himself with alot of point strikes. Instead I see him throwing haymakers again, but this time a little bit more controlled and with extra punches before he tire out.

I CAN'T WAIT to see how this is going down! :D
 
robbiedawg said:
Feel like a twat for betting on props as I normally don't like to but I can't ignore Diaz round 4 and round 5 odds being +2500 and +3100. I think a late Diaz finish is far more likely than those odds suggest.

Only small fun bets tho.
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What book has those props- one of the Euros? I personally bet Diaz wins in round 3 at +850 and Diaz wins in round 4 at +1150. 5Dimes also has Diaz wins in round 5 at +1450 now. Even the 5D openers weren't anywhere near as high a you got.
 
This card is madness guys.

Just gotta figure out how many dogs are gonna win, and pick them out

Maybe 3 or 4 underdogs winning including
Uda
Larkin
Story
 
For those wondering if Nick Diaz would be cornering his brother on Saturday, Nate just told DC on UFC Tonight- which started an hour late this evening- that there were some "technical difficulties" with that and it may or may not happen.
 
RonRon said:
Carlos Condit -- Diaz
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I don't find these to be tremendously relevant anyway, but this one is weird because I saw a video with the quote they posted verbatim only Condit picks McGregor at the end.
 
McGregor is pretty pissed about that he didn't get to say what he had planned for the conference. Well played Diaz ros with that sabotage. :)
 
robbiedawg said:
Feel like a twat for betting on props as I normally don't like to but I can't ignore Diaz round 4 and round 5 odds being +2500 and +3100. I think a late Diaz finish is far more likely than those odds suggest.

Only small fun bets tho.
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If I could get those odds I'd bet way more on props than normal. Those lines are absolutely insane. 5d isn't even close. Where the f are you getting those lines? Whoever is offering them are absolutely clueless. You have Conor who has a good chin but faded in the last fight but may try to not blow his was quite so quickly this time. You have Nate who has cardio for days but is a finisher and can end the fight multiple ways. Diaz rd 4 and Diaz rd 5 are actually pretty likely ways this thing ends. Not telling you what to do, but I'd add at those odds if you are actually really small on them. I know you don't like props, but ffs if the books make huge mistakes like that you gotta take advantage. If the fight isn't over by rd 3 you can probably hedge out of some of those props anyway with LB. .
 
Outside of Diaz, who is the biggest person McGregor has fought? Dennis Siver? Many many of Conor's past opponents have also fought at 135 or dropped to 135 later on.
 
You can check that yourself, come on now don´t cancer this thread more than it already is...
 
Terrible news Ladbrokes have badly limited me. They offer great mma props and are great for lb on boxing and not bad for mma. Pennington r3 +1600 there. Damn it
 
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I can't figure out how anyone could be on Story in this one

He had disc replacement surgery since squeaking past Gunnar and barely got past Saffedeine

Cerrone looked like he took a massive leap between the Oliviera and Cote fights, I honestly thought Cerrone looked top 5 WW when he fought Cote and I cant see Story closing the distance to hit the fight ending liver shot everyone thinks he will like RDA

Cerrones my lock on this card
 
Aventurero said:
Outside of Diaz, who is the biggest person McGregor has fought? Dennis Siver? Many many of Conor's past opponents have also fought at 135 or dropped to 135 later on.
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Out of his ufc opponents only Brimage has fought at 135.
 
Discjockeyshtud said:
I can't figure out how anyone could be on Story in this one

He had disc replacement surgery since squeaking past Gunnar and barely got past Saffedeine

Cerrone looked like he took a massive leap between the Oliviera and Cote fights, I honestly thought Cerrone looked top 5 WW when he fought Cote and I cant see Story closing the distance to hit the fight ending liver shot everyone thinks he will like RDA

Cerrones my lock on this card
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Story didn't squeak past Gunnar, he dominated him. The judge who gave it to Gunnar was probably watching a different fight. I think I scored the fight 50-44 or 49-45.
 
Discjockeyshtud said:
I can't figure out how anyone could be on Story in this one

He had disc replacement surgery since squeaking past Gunnar and barely got past Saffedeine

Cerrone looked like he took a massive leap between the Oliviera and Cote fights, I honestly thought Cerrone looked top 5 WW when he fought Cote and I cant see Story closing the distance to hit the fight ending liver shot everyone thinks he will like RDA

Cerrones my lock on this card
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I'm on Cerrone here, but saying he squeaked past Gunnar and barely got past Saffedeine is so far off that it's not even funny. He beat both extremely clearly. Not a single play by play scored it for Gunnar, and most had it 50-45 or 49-46. There should have been no question in that decision, and I have no clue how a judge scored it for Gunnar. Similarly with Saffedeine, that fight wasn't close either. Literally every play by play had it for Story at 30-27. No clue again how two judges had it 29-28.
 
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