Im here to warn you guys about betting on Nate this early, bear with me.
First Conor was in the -400 to -450 region for the last fight and people were smashing those lines, parlaying up with Holm and betting some more on the Conor KO lines. I thought Conor had little to no value then but I certainly favored him. Nate was on 11 days short notice, had a super short camp and was gonna come into the fight in really mediocre shape even though he was gonna always gonna have the cardio advantage.
We saw in the first round, even though Nate is notorious for having slow starts, that his jab wasn't as crisp and he was getting tagged a lot from Conor. Only 2 punches landed flush as Nate rolled with most of the shots but he was clearly in second place compared to Conor. Conor kept the pressure and Nate threw the odd jab to interfere with his ryhthm. A clear 10-9 round to Conor, who dictated the pace, was aggressive and landed the more prettier and flashy shots. Nate was really bleeding and like a his brother, a doctors stoppage could have been plausible if Conor could of kept it up for 2 more rounds.
The second round was similar to round one but Conor was more flatfooted and seemed to blow his wad. His shots werent as crisp and he was breathing heavy (similar to round 2 against Mendes) but he still kept with the pressure and was throwing combination shots. It all changed when Nate hit him with a clean right straight disguised by the left jab. Conor was visibly hurt, his coupled with him clearly gassing, meant that he was on dizzy street. When Nate senses that the opponent is done, he ups the pressure. Nate's hands were clearly better in the second rond and his shots were more crisp. We all know what happened after that infamous 1-2.
Now its bullshit saying "Conor was winning until he wasn't" but with the markedly improved cardio and effective combination and single shots he applied to most of his opponents in Cage Warrior days and against Holloway and Poirier coupled with strikes to the lead leg of Nate could be a route to victory for him among many others. Simply counting him out like many think is not that smart.
Now that Conor is -110 region, shouldn't those first time backers really favor him now? He is at a better price, has the cardio to carry that increased muscle mass, sparred with bigger and longer fighters and Nate isn't as unbeatable as some guys in here are implying. His flat footed, plodding style has already been figured out and Conor certainly has the power and striking ability to finish Nate (regardless of fanboys stating he has an iron chin). He will come in looking to damage that lead leg and go to the body often and mix shots to the body and head like in his sparring videos.
Even if you favour Nate, you will have a markedly improved line after round 1 after Conor does his thing again. You could probably get an even better line after round 2 with Conor still dictating (im predicting Nate would be around +400 here) but I ultimately think that Conor wins a decision or gets a finish in round 3.
Thank you, if you took the time to read that. (Took me a solid 10 mins to write).
