Dustin knows MJ has the speed advantage. He's going to need to get it dirty in there and put on a high pace until he can slow him down a bit to catch him even if that means he has to eat a couple punches to dish out his own. Dustin does have underrated footwork I might add. He transitions his feet well when he moves forward and pressures. He knows how to cut off the cage, and corner you so he can tee off/press for TDs once he puts you up against the fence. But like a double edged sword, his footwork also leads him to get hit quite a bit cuz it's the price you pay for the aggression and pace he wants HIS fight to be in. He's banking on being grittier than you. Dustin as Conor said, comes to fight, so you gotta expect to trade shots with the guy.
Except MJ has an in and out style so he might be able to quickly get off his shots and dip out. But as most MJ fights, he can't keep that same speed for all 3, let alone 5 rounds. He got caught staring at his work against Dariush and Nate. Dariush was landing right handed jabs all night and then Benny finally mixed in a shovel uppercut that changed that entire fight. But before that, MJ was cutting angles and moving his feet like a pro.
It'll take one mistake for MJ to get viciously GnP'd and possibly get his neck snatched by Poirier. It's a tricky fight to bet on because you need it to unfold first before figuring out how it's gonna go. I favor MJ early when he's fresh but Poirier late cuz he needs just that 1 takedown to take MJ out of his game.
I'm in the business of making money, so I'm always leaning towards picking the dog in certain match ups but I'm weary of either guy here. If odds were even I'd take Dustin in a -- 5 round fight -- but there's no value in my eyes at -165 so MJ could be the play. I think in a live bet situation you gotta look for who's putting who on the backfoot. MJ despite having an in and out style, also knows how to pressure you but keep disciplined. Imagine if MJ had a good ground game, he'd be one of the best fighters right now. MJ also doesn't sit on his punches when he's the one getting off first, his KO's are from people over extending and getting countered.
What a fun fight. The W is up for grabs for either man. I usually side with the guy with the better ground game but I don't want to lay the juice because I find myself on a bunch of favorites on this card. And I'm sure as fuck ain't trusting my money on any Latin fighters.
