UFN 94 - Johnson vs Poirier - Texas

[Brick Top]

btw. HTF did MJ get his first main event slot ever after losing 2 straight, exactly? hehe

The same way Caceres did, over saturation

I'm not complaining tho

 

[EzFlyer]

adding carneiro DEC +270 to the mix. robertson grappling base, himself.. never been subbed (3 of his 4 losses are decisions)

 

[Joseph Budden]

over saturation

Fuck that, can't wait for the day to come when UFC events are weekly. Seems like an inevitably within the next 5 years or so.

After watching some of Hall, actually now am kind of regretting betting him, but only cause that livebet line after round 1 will likely be sweet. Brunson starts very strong, Hall starts very slow. As long as it doesn't end in the first, big chance he loses that round and has juicy odds.

Side note: Amazing fight on TUF

 

[Joseph Budden]

Also, I am definitely switching sides to Brunson once/if he drops. Hall buckles to pressure every damn time. And due to above logic, hedge option should present itself if I want it

 

[Brick Top]

Not watched a minute of the new TUF but guess I have to. People raving about it everywhere

 

[Joseph Budden]

Not watched a minute of the new TUF but guess I have to. People raving about it everywhere

Great season so far. None of these guys stand a chance vs DJ, but lots of great additions to the division

 

[null]

Not watched a minute of the new TUF but guess I have to. People raving about it everywhere

I'm really enjoying it. But then again I watch every season of TUF including the foreign language ones with subtitles. Won a lot of money on TUF finales in the past as a result.

 

[Brick Top]

Great season so far. None of these guys stand a chance vs DJ, but lots of great additions to the division

I'm really enjoying it. But then again I watch every season of TUF including the foreign language ones with subtitles. Won a lot of money on TUF finales in the past as a result.

The last one I watched was the women's strawweight one. I already know who won this one due to douchebags on twitter leaking it but I might just watch it for the fights anyway.

 

[Brick Top]

Audio version of Bookie Beatdown is out btw. Listening right now

 

[null]

Audio version of Bookie Beatdown is out btw. Listening right now

I always bristle when you and whoever else always mentions this announce that you're listening to the audio version of Bookie Beatdown, lol. From my perspective I say fuck the audio version, I'll wait for the video one.The video adds so much because they have the rights from The Fight Network to show UFC and other fight footage of the fighters as they talk about them and even footage from some obscure promotions. No other breakdown or betting podcasts have this. Not to mention the on screen graphics with stats. Makes me appreciate it more than if it was just the two hosts sitting at their desks talking. Video version for life!

 

[Brick Top]

I always bristle when you and whoever else always mentions this announce that you're listening to the audio version of Bookie Beatdown, lol. From my perspective I say fuck the audio version, I'll wait for the video one.The video adds so much because they have the rights from The Fight Network to show UFC and other fight footage of the fighters as they talk about them and even footage from some obscure promotions. No other breakdown or betting podcasts have this. Not to mention the on screen graphics with stats. Makes me appreciate it more than if it was just the two hosts sitting at their desks talking. Video version for life!

Good point but I actually watch the video version too. I only listen to the audio version if there are no other predictions podcasts out yet.

 

[Sham5916910]

My gut feeling told me his striking defense is too bad to go against a striker like Hall from the start so I'm sticking with it. He definitely needs takedowns to win.

He will be able to take hall down if natal and mousasi can. And like i said hes poor off his back.

 

[Sham5916910]

Also, I am definitely switching sides to Brunson once/if he drops. Hall buckles to pressure every damn time. And due to above logic, hedge option should present itself if I want it

Yeah i was going to say why are you looking to lb hall after r1. Except for the mous fight its not like he starts slow and comes on strong like belal for example

 

[Brick Top]

He will be able to take hall down if natal and mousasi can. And like i said hes poor off his back.

I'd bet on Brunson at -125 or over

 

[null]

I'd bet on Brunson at -125 or over

Line is moving the other way towards -200. Now I wish I bet Brunson at -150 or -160.

 

[Conor McGregoat]

Where the hell did you get him at that price?!

DoesntexistBet

Go here:
https://www.bestfightodds.com/

Now, find that fight, go under the "sportsbook" column, click the current odds, and tell me what he opened at. It's like some of you have never bet before.

 

[northsofia]

This makes bettin on Hall has more value. Def Brunson can be KO`d by Hall. Bet365 give +150, but i think i will wait for the prop Hall by KO

 

[Shoulder]

I'm not really finding alot of bets of interest here, but I'm thinking of Poirer KO @3.75, but DEC is also a valid option since MJ is so tough... The ML is way to low for me, 1.57.

Is anyone giving Wade a chance to win? Otherwise 1.75 seems like a good bet for Makhachev. Or should I wait for the dec line?

Only bet so far is Benitez 1.5/5U @ 2.4

 

[Sham5916910]

Let's get a bit of perspective on Hall.

His UFC record is 5-4. He lost to KG and John Howard - two WW's. Of those five victories he has four TKO wins. One was against a washed up Leben who didn't want to be there, another was a cut stoppage against Stallings who is not UFC calibre, and who held his own until he was dropped and cut forcing the stoppage on the cut. Bamgbose slipped and Hall subsequently managed to gnp him but Bamgbose is not UFC calibre either. And of course he has his biggest win over Mousasi in a fight he was dominated in until he landed a very low percentage spinning back kick.

So outside of Mousasi he has beaten Leben (he retired after that fight), Stallings (not UFC calibre), Santos (not a bad fighter but mid level at best and a great stylistic matchup for Hall with no take down threat) and Bamgbose (not UFC level). So he has three wins over bogus competition, and as good as it was a fluke win over Mousasi (i genuinely hate calling a win a fluke but Mousasi was in total control and beats Hall 9/10).

Hall has losses to KG, John Howard, Natal and Whittaker. Brunson possess a threat on the feet with his power but also a massive take down threat. Hall is much better with his legs than hands, but with the massive take down threat we could see an even more hesitant Hall (Mousasi easily secured a take down off a Hall kick). I'm pretty sure Hall's kicks also gave Natal a few opportunities to get in on Hall's legs. Since the KG fight the UFC have given Hall very nice fights for him stylistically he has never faced a wrestler since that KG fight. He has had stand up fighter after stand up fighter. This is the first time since KG he has faced a very good wrestler, so bearing in mind how Natal and Mousasi managed to secure takedowns and how Whittaker out muscled him in the clinch I can easily see Hall being massively hesitant.

How many finishes standing does Hall have in the UFC outside of very low percentage spinning back kick on Mousasi? The answer is none. The Stallings fight was stopped on a cut (yes he did drop Stallings but Stallings seemed to recover ok) and Leben quit on his stool (Hall may have forced the stoppage if Leben wasn't saved by the bell but i have trouble even counting this fight bearing in mind how washed up Leben was).

In my mind Hall only wins this fight by stoppage, as I cannot see him stuffing enough of Brunson's take downs or being active enough standing to win a decision. Therefore if you are betting on Hall IMO you are betting on him landing a low percentage spin of some description.

Brunson has shown he can finish with his hands, his legs (no idea how Romero ate that head kick must be that massive Olympic wrestler neck) and wrestle fuck you.

I will happily take Brunson when i only see him losing by something such low percentage. If Hall lands some spinning shit and knocks Brunson out fair enough. But i have to bet against someone whose most likely route to victory is something very low percentage that he has pulled off only once in nine UFC fights. Brunson was also 2-0 rounds up against a roided Romero who if he wasn't popped could possibly be the MW champ now. After a questionable start to his UFC career he has improved leaps and bounds, while i just see the same Hall every fight.

I'd also like to point out that Brunson only rushed Alvey with his chin sky high. Yes he does hold his chin high and that's probably not going to change at 32, but it was only the Alvey fight where he went nuts. People seem to be writing stuff like he does it every fight. When he fought Larkin he was very patient, Herman was hurt from one punch and basically turtled from there and against Carneiro he was very patient until Carneiro slipped and Brunson unleashed from top position. So let's not skew the picture and put false information out there that Brunson charges in and releases a massive flurry every fight - he's done it once. I'm sure he will fight smart he knows he has a massive advantage on the mat, but he also has big power. If he can tag Hall early that could make Hall even more hesitant with the take down threat in addition. Hall really didn't seem to like it when Whittaker landed some flush shots, even faking an eye gouge when he got a knuckle in the eye.

 

[Brick Top]

Christ I've just watched Hall vs Whittaker and I don't understand how someone so genetically gifted, athletic and technical can be such a fucking bad fighter

@Sham5916910 I will reply to your post when I've watched more tape, doing so now