UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

Status
Not open for further replies.
Wonderboy/Woodley I can see Wonderboy finishing Woodley in championship rounds just like Nate did in strike-force provided his TDD holds up he can exhaust Woodley then finish him. But if Woodley bombs him early he could potentially finish him like the Lawler fight or set up TD to grind out a decision/tko.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Conor by KO in under 2 mins, which will be the same as the Eddie fight


Stephens doesn't KO people with one shot very often, and I doubt Frankie gives him many chances to plant and commit to his power like that. I think Stephens dec is second most likely outcome to Frankie dec.
Click to expand...

In all honestly, I've started watching tape on Eddie and I am thinking Conor gets him out of there early. That said, no joke I'm not sure how Conor deals with Ferg if that fight does happen. What a godawful matchup for Conor, seriously.

Stephens has good pop, he's hurt enough guys with 1-2 shots to say that imo. Esp at FW. Do I think the fight sees the cards? Yeah, for sure. But Stephens throws a lot of power shots and in the Mendes fight Frankie showed he'll still stand in the pocket and trade at times. Yeah he bounces around a lot but he showed here and there he's willing to bang.
 
mkess101 said:
In all honestly, I've started watching tape on Eddie and I am thinking Conor gets him out of there early. That said, no joke I'm not sure how Conor deals with Ferg if that fight does happen. What a godawful matchup for Conor, seriously.

Stephens has good pop, he's hurt enough guys with 1-2 shots to say that imo. Esp at FW. Do I think the fight sees the cards? Yeah, for sure. But Stephens throws a lot of power shots and in the Mendes fight Frankie showed he'll still stand in the pocket and trade at times. Yeah he bounces around a lot but he showed here and there he's willing to bang.
Click to expand...

My initial lean which was strong was Eddie and I have shifted after seeing Eddie isn't anything special wrestling and is quite hittable

I was also really impressed with Conor ability to show new stuff specifically leg kicks that had some oomph on the against Nate.

Ev I bin wrung yet?
 
Im surprised more arent liking Boetsch here. Natal leg kicks and circling might win a round but can he do it for 15 mins?

If he initiates the grappling i think this goes the the same way the Samman fight did. Big Tim dishing heavy hands. We've also seen Tim can end fights at any point, can Natal? I doubt it. I think TB should be a small fav, not approaching +150
 
Ukram said:
Props to mj for stepping up and taking on Khabib the guy no one wishes to face, if mj stuffs one or two take downs and uses that speed, athleticism and footwork he might pull off another upset.
Click to expand...

I might add a little on MJ is he continues to become a bigger dog. Something about his last fight against against DP looked different to me. He seemed the hungriest I've seen him and his speed was impressive. I feel Khabib might be overlooking him and is still bothered by having his title shot taken away and just too focused on Eddie/Conor. It's a big if, but if Johnson can use his speed and movement to avoid being taken down and land strikes with his superior speed he can probably edge a few rounds. Playing Johnson for DEC if the odds are good sounds reasonable to me also.
 
spooNN said:
I might add a little on MJ is he continues to become a bigger dog. Something about his last fight against against DP looked different to me. He seemed the hungriest I've seen him and his speed was impressive. I feel Khabib might be overlooking him and is still bothered by having his title shot taken away and just to focused on Eddie/Conor. It's a big if, but if Johnson can use his speed and movement I can to avoid being taken down and land strikes with his superior speed he can edge a few rounds. Playing Johnson for DEC if the odds are good sounds reasonable to me also.
Click to expand...

There is definitely value on Johnson. I listened to Heavy Hands break the fight down, they both agree that someone like MJ or Barboza are the worst stylistic match ups fir Khabib. MJ is probably the best striker that Khabib would have fought and he will be content to fight on the back foot and not rush in. Although Heavy Hands also say that they are concerned about MJ's mental game (e.g how will he react to getting taken down and controlled for a round).
 
Weidman vs Romero. I like Romero no scorecards at 2.35. I'm also going to take a close look at the split decision lines as soon as they are out. Close rounds are very possible. Weidman will probably be pressing the action but Romero can deliver a good flurry at any time. Both fighters might score takedowns.
 
vkram said:
There is definitely value on Johnson. I listened to Heavy Hands break the fight down, they both agree that someone like MJ or Barboza are the worst stylistic match ups fir Khabib. MJ is probably the best striker that Khabib would have fought and he will be content to fight on the back foot and not rush in. Although Heavy Hands also say that they are concerned about MJ's mental game (e.g how will he react to getting taken down and controlled for a round).
Click to expand...

I noticed that about Johnson too. He seems to get frustrated and taken out of his game when things aren't going his way. The Diaz, Madadi and Jury fights all come to mind. The latter two are especially alarming because he was taken down and dominated by guys who aren't on Khabib's level grappling wise. Since those two fights, he hasn't been taken down (his opponents are 0 for 16 on takedown attempts) so we don't really know what, if any, improvement he's made on the ground.

That said, at current odds, I think I'm going to have to play MJ here. Khabib has been so inactive and MJ does have several paths to victory IMO.
 
Last edited:
burge13 said:
Im surprised more arent liking Boetsch here. Natal leg kicks and circling might win a round but can he do it for 15 mins?

If he initiates the grappling i think this goes the the same way the Samman fight did. Big Tim dishing heavy hands. We've also seen Tim can end fights at any point, can Natal? I doubt it. I think TB should be a small fav, not approaching +150
Click to expand...

Yeah had similar concerns regarding tim, he does have the skills wrestling wise and punching power to give natal issues but having said that natal survived whittaker ranked 8 and had success with his leg kicks against him he just stopped using them despite having him unable to move of that bruised leg. I think natal has more paths to win here especially if he gets in the clinches and the fight on the ground.

spooNN said:
I might add a little on MJ is he continues to become a bigger dog. Something about his last fight against against DP looked different to me. He seemed the hungriest I've seen him and his speed was impressive.
Click to expand...

MJ was coming off 2 losses a 3rd usually means fired and straight to bellator, he literally had no choice but to win :) Mj does struggle against heavy grapplers and bjj/sub guys so its a legit concern especially with 6 sub losses on his record, but he has shown more improvement with his ttd (nice sprawls lately) and underhooks to prevent take downs, but khabib is 2 notches above anyone else in terms of grappling its not going to be easy for mj at all, if he stuffs the first 1-2 take downs id be tempted to live bet him though.
 
What do you guys think about Cerrone v Gastelum? Cerrone has looked damn good at 170, but Gastelum looked really sharp in his last fight too.
 
pumped for Saturday heres my big parlay +582 odds
Joanna by decision -130
edgar by decision -130
khabib -280
Cerrone -165

also like romero at +245
 
mkess101 said:
In all honestly, I've started watching tape on Eddie and I am thinking Conor gets him out of there early. That said, no joke I'm not sure how Conor deals with Ferg if that fight does happen. What a godawful matchup for Conor, seriously.

Stephens has good pop, he's hurt enough guys with 1-2 shots to say that imo. Esp at FW. Do I think the fight sees the cards? Yeah, for sure. But Stephens throws a lot of power shots and in the Mendes fight Frankie showed he'll still stand in the pocket and trade at times. Yeah he bounces around a lot but he showed here and there he's willing to bang.
Click to expand...
If Conor doesn't get Ferg out in round 1, which I think is fairly possible, he likely loses barring a massive cardio increase.

Mendes is much faster than Stephens, and did a good job of keeping Frankie still with nice leg kicks til getting KOd. Leg kicks won't be an option for Stephens unless he wants to get taken down. I would say the gap between Stephens dec and Stephens itd is fairly wide in terms of likeliness. Frankie is tough as shit, and Stephens couldn't KO Barao in the moments he stood in front of Jeremy like a punching bag
 
Ukram said:
Jesus Christ we got these 2 guys back on this card....


Click to expand...


45868735.jpg


Kennedy +363: 300 for 1,090 / Kennedy +3.5: 49.98 parlays / O2.5: 145 for 100 -- 100 parlays / NOT romero ITD: 182.35 parlays

 
burge13 said:
Im surprised more arent liking Boetsch here. Natal leg kicks and circling might win a round but can he do it for 15 mins?

If he initiates the grappling i think this goes the the same way the Samman fight did. Big Tim dishing heavy hands. We've also seen Tim can end fights at any point, can Natal? I doubt it. I think TB should be a small fav, not approaching +150
Click to expand...

i'm absolutely on boetsch here. if he comes in the same shape as he did last fight, i give him a big power edge and wrestling edge, think the line is off for sure
 
daggen said:
What do you guys think about Cerrone v Gastelum? Cerrone has looked damn good at 170, but Gastelum looked really sharp in his last fight too.
Click to expand...

i thought i was in the minority on gastelum here, i don't see many talking about him (but i see a few people backing cerrone)

...yet... gastelum price is dropping

i think he can hang with cowboy pretty much everywhere, i think he has better boxing. wrestling is close at this point, probably. cowboy better bjj but you had better not let kelvin get your back, he's lethal there. also, cowboy has historically struggled with southpaws
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,632
Messages
55,506,568
Members
174,800
Latest member
kechan123

Share this page

Back
Top