UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[Joseph Budden]

I was in Kelvin's corner I'd tell him "You don't shoot until 20 seconds or so left in a round to try to steal it, period".

Could not agree more. Clinch and cage hug yes, takedowns only at that time.

 

[EzFlyer]

Why is Stephens no scorecards +135? Cause of the Mendes KO? This is way off imo

you really think he has a good chance to KO frankie? i don't

i think frankie nsc is better price than stephens nsc

some #'s for ya.. stephens has one finish in his last 6.. edgar has 3 finishes in his last 5...

 

[Joseph Budden]

you really think he has a good chance to KO frankie? i don't

i think frankie nsc is better price than stephens nsc

some #'s for ya.. stephens has one finish in his last 6.. edgar has 3 finishes in his last 5...

I think Stephens finishing is way more likely. Edgar finished Cub in the final seconds of a five round fight and decrepit BJ inside the last minute after completely embarrassing him. I could see Edgar 30-27 here if takedowns are coming fairly easy, but idk about doing enough to finish like he did there. Stephens seems to slowly be getting better and better over recent years while BJ looked like he was completely shot.

 

[EzFlyer]

I think Stephens finishing is way more likely. Edgar finished Cub in the final seconds of a five round fight and decrepit BJ inside the last minute after completely embarrassing him. I could see Edgar 30-27 here if takedowns are coming fairly easy, but idk about doing enough to finish like he did there. Stephens seems to slowly be getting better and better over recent years while BJ looked like he was completely shot.

i don't agree w/stephens getting better, really. he's 2-3 in his last 5.. and he was like 90 seconds away from losing to a possibly-shot barao in barao's first fight up a weight class in one and some had it 20-18 bermudez before stephens ko'd him in rd 3.

he got pretty much dominated by the very guy you just mentioned, swanson, and oliveira, and holloway.

edgar's only lost in championship fights, all by decision.. in like.. the last 10 years. aldo twice and bendo twice.

oh, and btw, edgar has never been finished in his career. with like the most cage time of anyone in ufc history..

 

[mkess101]

i don't agree w/stephens getting better, really. he's 2-3 in his last 5.. and he was like 90 seconds away from losing to a possibly-shot barao in barao's first fight up a weight class in one and some had it 20-18 bermudez before stephens ko'd him in rd 3.

he got pretty much dominated by the very guy you just mentioned, swanson, and oliveira, and holloway.

edgar's only lost in championship fights, all by decision.. in like.. the last 10 years. aldo twice and bendo twice.

oh, and btw, edgar has never been finished in his career. with like the most cage time of anyone in ufc history..

I'm glad neither were stopped because they ended up as 2 of my all time favorite fights, but Frankie probably should have 2 TKO losses to Gray on his record. If "fighter safety" were really the #1 priority those fights get stopped.

But your point is still valid. You make a good case that Stephens by KO is really, really unlikely.

 

[Joseph Budden]

i don't agree w/stephens getting better, really. he's 2-3 in his last 5.. and he was like 90 seconds away from losing to a possibly-shot barao in barao's first fight up a weight class in one and some had it 20-18 bermudez before stephens ko'd him in rd 3.

he got pretty much dominated by the very guy you just mentioned, swanson, and oliveira, and holloway.

edgar's only lost in championship 5ights, all by decision.. in like.. the last 10 years. aldo twice and bendo twice.

oh, and btw, edgar has never been finished in his career. with like the most cage time of anyone in ufc history..

If his fights vs Barao and Berm weren't his best performances, what do you think were?

Not saying Edgar decision isn't very likely. That's a point you could easily make lol if it were at evens I probably would've taken it over +850 Stephens dec

He hasn't but he's taken damage and similar power puncher Gray Maynard rocked him, while on the opposite end similar style minus all fight iq Dennis Berm was eventually KOd going for a td. I love the over in this fight, but I don't see why +135 isn't a solid line to take a shot with. The no scorecards should here be even imo, maybe even favor Stephens slightly if anything

 

[EzFlyer]

If his fights vs Barao and Berm weren't his best performances, what do you think were?

Not saying Edgar decision isn't very likely. That's a point you could easily make lol if it were at evens I probably would've taken it over +850 Stephens dec

He hasn't but he's taken damage and similar power puncher Gray Maynard rocked him, while on the opposite end similar style minus all fight iq Dennis Berm was eventually KOd going for a td. I love the over in this fight, but I don't see why +135 isn't a solid line to take a shot with. The no scorecards should here be even imo, maybe even favor Stephens slightly if anything

i just explained why.. he's never been finished.. why should it be evens when he's a 3:1 dog..

 

[Joseph Budden]

i just explained why.. he's never been finished.. why should it be evens when he's a 3:1 dog..

What were Stephens best performances?

Ok fair enough I just think in a fight likely to go to the cards Stephens has a better chance at landing something significant

 

[mkess101]

To be fair, Stephens has only 1 KO loss in 37 pro fights. If we agree Frankie sub isn't gonna happen I don't think it's a big stretch to say odds of either guy finishing the other are at least relatively close to even.

That said, fight goes distance at -180 please. Had 1.5u on it, added 1 more u. This seems like the best value here, and among the best on the card maybe. These guys have 63 combined pro fights against top level competition and ONE loss by KO/TKO. Other than Frankie subbing Cub with 4 seconds to go in a 5 round fight where Cub just wanted a way out after a prolonged beating, neither has a sub in like 8 years.

So we can argue about which NSC is better, but in this case I think it's a waste of time LOL. Just bet o2.5 at -220 or better yet fight goes distance at -180. NSC can be left alone in this one imo.

 

[mkess101]

JJ Dec -118
JJ UD +170

Way off imo. If you think she wins by dec, I can't see paying the juice here. +170 for UD is more than worth the risk.

 

[Joseph Budden]

JJ Dec -118
JJ UD +170

Way off imo. If you think she wins by dec, I can't see paying the juice here. +170 for UD is more than worth the risk.

Just cause you pointed that out, worth pointing out same discrepecancy for WB. Dec is like +220 UD is +410. If you think this hits the cards, is there really a chance it's a back and forth split? I'd imagine by 3, 4, and 5 WB takes over.

 

[bruthead]

JJ UD +170 is a great line, only +130 on the Eurobooks.

 

[piglord]

Just cause you pointed that out, worth pointing out same discrepecancy for WB. Dec is like +220 UD is +410. If you think this hits the cards, is there really a chance it's a back and forth split? I'd imagine by 3, 4, and 5 WB takes over.

man that's a great line. i don't think there is any chance of a split dec (or woodley winning at all) if it goes to decision.

 

[jack5603]

After another miserable embarrassing few weeks of betting and gambling, I've decided to go big or go home with this event(don't worry I'm not betting my life savings.). Which means I'm watching lots of footage(each fighters last 4 fights).
I don't know how I'm going to do them all after spending 3-4 hours on just one fight. But it's fun.
Natal vs Boestch is what I just analyzed. With Natal there were some things I liked and some things I didn't. Obviously his ground game is top notch. He's also got power, and brilliant moments of counter striking. However I really only saw this executed perfectly in his fight with Tom Watson. A fighter who's going to constantly pressure you down the middle. When he fought guys who had good movement and were also counter strikers, he looked lost a lot of the time(Hall, Whittaker). His striking turned into wild rushing overhand attacks instead of the calculated game he had against Watson. You can't count out his heart, however there were times in each fight I felt he was a bit to inactive. I wasn't expecting to like Boestch here, but after watching the tape I've changed my mind a bit. Boestch is a little wild like Natal, but executes it better. I was also impressed with his constant movement, which Natal seems to struggle against. Boestch has great counter hooks, and he's sure to land a few as natal comes rushing forward.
The biggest worry for Boestch is the ground game, however he has a very solid wrestling background/takedown defense. Also Natal's been content to stand and trade with a lot of better strikers lately. No takedown attempts in R3(and maybe R2) against whittaker who was outclassing him on the feet.
Boestch's fight with Thales leites worries me, as he looked decent until he got taken down and subbed. I'd say this fight is pretty close, I'd probably cap Boetsch at -135. Here are the lines I like on 5dimes.
O1.5 -185 (I was guessing it would be set at 2.5 so I like this. They both have decent chins, unless they start it with a slugfest I think this should most likely hit.)
Boestch TKO and R1-3 Props( I think if Boestch wins it's most likely by finish)
I think Boestch NO SC -103 is a better bet then Boestch straight up. I'm also eying Boestch +3.5 -175, Natal gets complacent often and Boestch should be able to win at least a round.

 

[Timurd123]

absolutely not imo. not if boetsch looks like he did last fight, i actually favor boetsch here. have 2.5u on him so far, love the price.

Same here

Natal is just ok, and he is mad slow, the barbarian will definitely get his hands on him and I think he's gonna hurt him

I have 1.5u on his ml and 1.5u on his KO line at +300

 

[Timurd123]

Just cause you pointed that out, worth pointing out same discrepecancy for WB. Dec is like +220 UD is +410. If you think this hits the cards, is there really a chance it's a back and forth split? I'd imagine by 3, 4, and 5 WB takes over.

Smells like a trap to me



Ps: Cerrone dominated Kelvin

Kelvin is the most overrated guy in the division, he does nothing great, his striking is 10 levels beneath Cerrone's

Im on Cerrone ml for 2u @-150 and thinking if I should hit his dec or itd line

Gonna wait for the weigh ins tho, with Kelvin's history of unprofessional weight cutting and dieting I might as well wait
Will absolutely add a couple more units if Cerrone's price drops, if I'll need to hedge

KG's dec line is +333 on Bet365

KG finishes Cerrone via massive fluke, look at the guys he finished and ask yourself if Cerrone is on that level

 

[Bands]

Belal Muhammad -165
Vicente Luque +125

I think I like Luque here, gonna wait to see if I can get a better price though.
Thoughts?

 

[northsofia]

My first look for some of the fights (didnt manage to read all posts till now, so sorry if i repeat something i allready wrote about)

Frankie Edgar - Jeremy Stephens
Frankie is one my favourite fighters off all time. Stephens is a tough guy, i think it is going to be very hard for Frankie to KO him, but i am pretty sure he is going to win. He is has more expirience, he is more well rounded and he is tougher in all aspects. o2.5 rounds is 1.57 in bet365, Frankie to win by dec is 1.80, i am hitting these two lines for sure.

Khabib Nurmagomedov - Michael Johnson
Sambo boy is a beast in the cage, but he hasnt had a fight like this since April 2014 when he beat RDA. I still think he is going to win this fight, but 1.36 def has no value for me. Maybe o2.5 rounds @1.72 is something i consider to hit. Khabib by dec @2.20 also looks ok.

Rashad Evans - Tim Kennedy
I really dont know what to think about these two. Rashad has some chin issues, but Tim hasnt fought for 2 years. Both has some power in their hands and if someone gasses in the 2nd or 3rd this is going to be a problem for him. u2.5 rounds is 2.30.

Yoel Romero - Chris Weidman
Romero is on of the most overrated fighters in this division for me. I think Weidman is going to take the win pretty easily, especially if he can eliminate Romero`s takedowns and i def think he will. Weidman ML is 1.58 and Weidman by dec is 3.00

 

[Officer_Brown]

Belal Muhammad -165
Vicente Luque +125

I think I like Luque here, gonna wait to see if I can get a better price though.
Thoughts?

Anyone else like Vincente Luque as a dog? I feel belal is overrated and somehow limited. He got is ass kicked by jouban and didn't look too good vs Montano. Luque is the better grappler for sure and I think better striker too. Belal is the favorite because of his record 10-1, Luque is 10-5. Luque is much better than his record shows. Thoughts?

People hammering Belal. Luque prize going better

 

[Officer_Brown]

Who else likes Jim Miller here. Look closely Thiago's record. His last good win was Mein. But he was losing that fight until he pulled off that monsterous kick. Alves going weight class down and is probaly off steroids now. Ring rust also. I see Miller getting the W here.

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