UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[EzFlyer]

MJ has defended all 16 takedown attempts in his last 7 fights. Khabibs takedowns are obviously on another level than guys like Dariush and Tibau but at the current odds MJ is just too tempting to pass up for me.

The tibau fight didn't last long but idk if they're on another level to tibau's when hes fresh.

Not to mention khabib was like 0/15 on tds vs tibau

 

[Sham5916910]

No way that's free money.. -250 is not cheap and ground strikes count as significant strikes

Yeah you're right i got a bit carried away there!

 

[Bands]

I can't stop picturing Woodley butchering Thompson's lead leg with his nasty leg kicks, negating his movement and then trapping him against the cage and KO'ing him in the first 2 rounds.

I really can't see a strong argument for Woodley winning this fight, especially not with leg kicks. Outside of landing a big punch I don't think he has much of a chance. Every fighter is hittable but Wonderboy is one of the hardest to hit. I think he fights smart and outstrikes Woodley at range. He'll get stronger as the fight goes on and the 5 rounds works in his favour.

 

[t6p]

I can't stop picturing Woodley butchering Thompson's lead leg with his nasty leg kicks, negating his movement and then trapping him against the cage and KO'ing him in the first 2 rounds.

I think this is an excellent point. Woodley's leg kicks are underrated IMO. I haven't seen anyone else mention them.

 

[t6p]

Does anyone think the change of camp could be an issue for JJ? I realize ATT could be an upgrade for her long term but I think it's worth considering that there may be an adjustment period.

I still favor JJ to win, but right now I'm on KK decision and split decision small.

EDIT: It's not apples to apples, but after what we just saw from RDA after leaving Kings it may be a factor. In a fight that I'm already expecting to be close, it's a slight confidence increase in KK for me.

 

[BigNick100]

I really can't see a strong argument for Woodley winning this fight, especially not with leg kicks. Outside of landing a big punch I don't think he has much of a chance. Every fighter is hittable but Wonderboy is one of the hardest to hit. I think he fights smart and outstrikes Woodley at range. He'll get stronger as the fight goes on and the 5 rounds works in his favour.

Wonderboy gets hit more often then you might think

 

[Sham5916910]

I think this is an excellent point. Woodley's leg kicks are underrated IMO. I haven't seen anyone else mention them.

Woodley does have some powerful leg kicks but i have a real hard time believing he is going to out kick possibly the best kickboxer we've seen in MMA. WB will be out of range too often for them to land on a regular basis.

 

[Sham5916910]

Does anyone think the change of camp could be an issue for JJ? I realize ATT could be an upgrade for her long term but I think it's worth considering that there may be an adjustment period.

I still favor JJ to win, but right now I'm on KK decision and split decision small.

EDIT: It's not apples to apples, but after what we just saw from RDA after leaving Kings it may be a factor. In a fight that I'm already expecting to be close, it's a slight confidence increase in KK for me.

RDA seemed to take charge of his own camp. JJ is not doing that she still has head instructors. I did think about this too but i think it's a positive. Despite being a dominant champ she still wanted to freshen things up and evolve. After careful thought i think it's a positive. RDA was clearly trying to fix something coming off a loss.

 

[Ukram]

Interview with WB
https://gotham-magazine.com/chris-w...m-norton-on-ufc-205-injuries-memorable-fights

Main point-

-Was gsp training partner
-first fight @ 15, watched his first ufc show at 12
-57-0 kickboxing record
-trains with Chris weidman, is actually family (weidmans sister married to wbs brother)
-Mentions he purposely keeps his hands down, wants guys to try and take his head off so he can counter
-relies on speed and accuracy
-mentions brown fight is his turning point, he has no quit in him and won't get finished via sub or ko, mentions how he had to re-train and get better after brown fight.


Keeps his hands down to get hit so he can counter, wb did mention its due to weight distribution and it allows him to quickly counter even better, its either a super red flag for WB or a positive, take your pick!

 

[BigNick100]

I'm not so sure if we will see Woodley going that way even tho it makes sense. He really believes in his explosiveness and power and rightly so, so i think he will try and catch WB in r1 standing. When that doesn't work, which IMO it won't but of course he has a very good punchers chance, i think he will be picked apart as he tires and resorts to sporadic spurts of explosiveness while spending the rest of the time very static with his back to the cage. Woodley does not respond well to being backed up see Rory fight and r3 of Gastelum fight. As soon as he starts backing up this fight is as good as over IMO.

Don't sleep on WB's tdd either. Hendricks couldn't get him down and he subsequently easily disengaged from the clinch, and Rory one of the best MMA wrestlers in the sport was easily stuffed on the odd occasion he attempted a takedown. We haven't seen Woodley's wrestling since the Condit fight.

WB can mix up how he fights too. He came out and blasted Hendricks while he was far more conservative against Rory. Who knows how WB comes out in this fight. You would have expected him to be conservative against Hendricks with his power and lay it more on Rory but he did the complete opposite and it worked great in both cases. Will be very interesting to see his approach to this fight.

I see your points, but I was actually surprised how often Rory didn't attempt take downs. Hendricks fight was post USADA, which I think played a role in Hendricks looking so bad. Another reason I think he came out aggressive against Hendricks is that he had 6 inch reach on him. So he could have tee'd off on Hendrick at a safe distance. He will only have 1 inch reach advantage against Woodley.

Don't think Woodley can't mix it up either. After looking more into it, Woodley can imply some leg kicks to slow down Wonderboy, as somone else mentioned. Woodley has some powerful leg kicks, just ask Condit. He can always threaten the takedown on Wonderboy with also the threat of knocking out Wonderboy. He can also use the fence and do clinch work. My biggest concern is Woodley's gas tank and him slowing down.

But I like Woodley here, but like I said will hedge a Wonderboy round 4/5 win. Also making a small bet on the DEC prop, in case it goes to DEC I win either way

 

[Ukram]

Does anyone think the change of camp could be an issue for JJ? I realize ATT could be an upgrade for her long term but I think it's worth considering that there may be an adjustment period.

I still favor JJ to win, but right now I'm on KK decision and split decision small.

EDIT: It's not apples to apples, but after what we just saw from RDA after leaving Kings it may be a factor. In a fight that I'm already expecting to be close, it's a slight confidence increase in KK for me.

No way tell for sure, but I like your kk decision and split play and will probably put similar in my hedge or hedge parlay, I am intrigued to see kk MT here, jj should be better during clinches and up close being a multi time world MT champ but she does not use it as much as kk does at times, jj tends to break away off the cage after landing some elbows and knees more so, while kk uses it nearly always everywhere.

The fight could be a bit more closer then I thought but I do generally feel jj decision and especially the overs are the best play here some concerns if kk shows improved wrestling (which she does train), but both are decision machines, jj does not wish to lose the belt and kk is a decisioner and safety fighter by default.

 

[Sham5916910]

Interview with WB
https://gotham-magazine.com/chris-w...m-norton-on-ufc-205-injuries-memorable-fights

Main point-

-Was gsp training partner
-first fight @ 15, watched his first ufc show at 12
-57-0 kickboxing record
-trains with Chris weidman, is actually family (weidmans sister married to wbs brother)
-Mentions he purposely keeps his hands down, wants guys to try and take his head off so he can counter
-relies on speed and accuracy
-mentions brown fight is his turning point, he has no quit in him and won't get finished via sub or ko, mentions how he had to re-train and get better after brown fight.


Keeps his hands down to get hit so he can counter, wb did mention its due to weight distribution and it allows him to quickly counter even better, its either a super red flag for WB or a positive, take your pick!

Not a red flag it's how he fights anyone betting him should know that. It's so damn hard to block punches in MMA with the small gloves any how.

 

[Bands]

Just finished watching tape and researching Muhammad vs Luque. Muhammad really isn't great at one thing but he is very well rounded, the same could be said for Luque but he is much more dangerous.

I just think Luque has the edge on the feet and if Muhammad shoots he is putting himself in danger of getting choked. Luque did a good job defending TD's against Nate Coy and getting back to his feet quickly is he was taken down before. Biggest concern for Luque is 3 weeks short notice and he is not doing his camp at Blackzillians, but even so I still think Luque is just better and I think he wins.

Muhammad really hasn't impressed me in his UFC career so far. Jouban was hitting and hurting him a lot in the first two rounds but then broke his left hand and this allowed Muhmamad to come on strong in the third. And against ex juice head Montano he didn't look great on the feet but got the win because he was able to exploit Montano's non existent ground game.

I think this is going to look similar to the Jouban fight. Luque has more ways to win and has an advantage in almost every aspect of the game.

 

[Sham5916910]

I see your points, but I was actually surprised how often Rory didn't attempt take downs. Hendricks fight was post USADA, which I think played a role in Hendricks looking so bad. Another reason I think he came out aggressive against Hendricks is that he had 6 inch reach on him. So he could have tee'd off on Hendrick at a safe distance. He will only have 1 inch reach advantage against Woodley.

Don't think Woodley can't mix it up either. After looking more into it, Woodley can imply some leg kicks to slow down Wonderboy, as somone else mentioned. Woodley has some powerful leg kicks, just ask Condit. He can always threaten the takedown on Wonderboy with also the threat of knocking out Wonderboy. He can also use the fence and do clinch work. My biggest concern is Woodley's gas tank and him slowing down.

But I like Woodley here, but like I said will hedge a Wonderboy round 4/5 win. Also making a small bet on the DEC prop, in case it goes to DEC I win either way

If i remember rightly did Rory attempt a td in r1? I think he got stuffed so easily and felt WB's strength in the clinch that he kind of gave up on the idea of being able to take WB down with a conventional td. He tried the rolling leglock multiple times and that must have been something they drilled in camp. For him to gameplan that technique leads me to believe that they were tipped off about WB's tdd being really good (the Hendricks fight would have helped too). I don't see why Rory would employ that tactic for any other reason as he's never done it before. Good point on the reach advantage over Hendricks.

I think Woodley's leg kicks are being overrated as an effective strategy against someone such as WB. I also don't think he will have much joy clinching up against the fence or even attempt it. That is going to gas his arms out and the last thing Woodley wants is drained arms so his punches are slower and less powerful. USADA or not Hendricks is a strong mofo and WB easily got off the cage against him and Rory who is a very effective MMA wrestler.

 

[Polarize]

Joana by KO/DEC -200, 365bet. Seriously, Someone is going to be fired.

 

[BigNick100]

If i remember rightly did Rory attempt a td in r1? I think he got stuffed so easily and felt WB's strength in the clinch that he kind of gave up on the idea of being able to take WB down with a conventional td. He tried the rolling leglock multiple times and that must have been something they drilled in camp. For him to gameplan that technique leads me to believe that they were tipped off about WB's tdd being really good (the Hendricks fight would have helped too). I don't see why Rory would employ that tactic for any other reason as he's never done it before. Good point on the reach advantage over Hendricks.

I think Woodley's leg kicks are being overrated as an effective strategy against someone such as WB. I also don't think he will have much joy clinching up against the fence or even attempt it. That is going to gas his arms out and the last thing Woodley wants is drained arms so his punches are slower and less powerful. USADA or not Hendricks is a strong mofo and WB easily got off the cage against him and Rory who is a very effective MMA wrestler.

Yes he did, but that was only one take down attempt. I'm surprised he didn't go for more. He basically stayed in front of Wonderboy and had a kickboxing contest with him the rest of the fight, which only helped Wonderboy. Woodley is stronger and more explosive then Rory. What Wonderboy has is Weidman in his camp, which helps him greatly with his TDD. I still believe Woodley is the most explosive fighter Wonderboy has faced, and I'm leaning on that being the difference.

 

[Monster Meat]

The plan is to put Cowboy in a couple parlays but just watched the Gastelum interview and Kelvin has been training at Kings MMA.

Does anyone see this as a problem for Cowboy as RDA trains(ed) at Kings and is 2-0 vs Cowboy

My take on the fight is this: Cerrone has had trouble with guys who can hit to the body and southpaws. His losses to rda (second time) and pettis were both from nasty body shots something Gastelum does not specialize in. As far as the southpaws go I think Cerrone took care of that against story where he really picked story apart with timely leg kicks and a monster body shot to setup that crazy combo to finish him. All the talk about that matchup was that story was a southpaw he is stronger than cerrone and he is good at hitting the body a cerrone weakness. Gastelum is a very durable athletic welterweight but I think the difference here is Cerrone having a reach advantage and being able to keep him at distance with striking. He will mix up his kicks and get inside on him and control the fight. Gastelum had a lot of trouble with Neil magny another tall rangy fighter who kept Gastelum frustrated with his length. In my opinion there are more advantages for cerrone and he has more ways to win.

 

[Sham5916910]

Joana by KO/DEC -200, 365bet. Seriously, Someone is going to be fired.

That and WB -130 is asking to get parlayed...or am i being greedy!

 

[Sham5916910]

Yes he did, but that was only one take down attempt. I'm surprised he didn't go for more. He basically stayed in front of Wonderboy and had a kickboxing contest with him the rest of the fight, which only helped Wonderboy. Woodley is stronger and more explosive then Rory. What Wonderboy has is Weidman in his camp, which helps him greatly with his TDD. I still believe Woodley is the most explosive fighter Wonderboy has faced, and I'm leaning on that being the difference.

Yep agreed surprised he didn't go for more but i think he possibly felt WB's strength/tdd and thought he was going to have next to no chance of getting WB to the mat. I think he tried another time but ended up on the bottom. Woodley is defo his most explosive opponent to date so i see where you're coming from. I just think WB is too cute to be caught by someone who has a punchers chance. Over 70 kickbooxing/MMA fights and never KO'd.

 

[Polarize]

That and WB -130 is asking to get parlayed...or am i being greedy!

I did that parlay 30 mins ago Lulz. 1u
0.5u parlay with Chook DEC and 2u single bet.