Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - December, 2016

[mkess101]

The Cavs and Dubs know each other very well from all their finals games these past two years. They both have a read on how to guard each other. The X factor here is Durant, who the Cavs now have to figure out while making sure none of the usual suspects go off. Losing JR is also kinda significant because the guy can go for 4-5 threes any given night.

Good enough for me.

1u GSW -2.5

 

[iGnP]

Btw guys the spread didn't matter in any NFL games yetserday. I have like ten notes written down to help me w capping next season but I'm gonna stop taking dogs plus points for sure. No point w how it's going

 

[iGnP]

I'm not gonna wager on it but I think the Celtics are the right side here. Be careful live betting the Knicks

 

[t6p]

Not at all confident but just for fun:

0.5u Knicks ML +130

 

[mkess101]

Btw guys the spread didn't matter in any NFL games yetserday. I have like ten notes written down to help me w capping next season but I'm gonna stop taking dogs plus points for sure. No point w how it's going

I wonder what it would like to bet every game the favorite to cover the spread AND the dog ML. You'll get middled sometimes but evidently not very often given what you are tracking.

I'm not advocating doing this but would be interesting to see how it worked out.

 

[iGnP]

I wonder what it would like to bet every game the favorite to cover the spread AND the dog ML. You'll get middled sometimes but evidently not very often given what you are tracking.

I'm not advocating doing this but would be interesting to see how it worked out.

If you can find me a site that gives the closing ML for each game I'll calculate it for you.

 

[t6p]

@iGnP Any thoughts on the Bulls today?

 

[iGnP]

@iGnP Any thoughts on the Bulls today?

Yea I think they cover 9. I think they match up decently well w how the Spurs play and shouldn't get blown out unless either the Spurs shoot the lights out or Bulls absolutely shit the bed

 

[iGnP]

NBA Sunday
Warriors -3
Bulls +9

Both to win 0.75u. Also eyeing a Lakers bet if Chris Paul doesn't play but I think he might. Not sure but I'll post if I indeed take the Lakers

 

[mkess101]

If you can find me a site that gives the closing ML for each game I'll calculate it for you.

I think this works:

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_odds.shtml#Closing NFL Odds This Season

 

[iGnP]

I think this works:

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_odds.shtml#Closing NFL Odds This Season

Nice. Ok what are the parameters? Risk 1.1u on favorites covering the spread is given, but do you want to hedge for no loss w the underdog or do you want to risk one unit on the underdog? There's a lot of ways we can do this

 

[t6p]

NBA Sunday
Warriors -3
Bulls +9

Both to win 0.75u. Also eyeing a Lakers bet if Chris Paul doesn't play but I think he might. Not sure but I'll post if I indeed take the Lakers

Agree on both and planning to do the same thing with the Lakers.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Knicks +250, damn. Small play on that

 

[iGnP]

Knicks +250, damn. Small play on that

They're shooting a better % and getting to the line more. But just like the Pacers/Celtics game from earlier in the week (which i lost money on), the Celtics dominating the TO battle

 

[barrygood1]

Whats better than opening Christmas presents on Xmas day... Making money to spend on Boxing Day or Dom Perignon for New Years Eve! Today we've got a marathon of nationally televised NBA games and we have the much anticipated headliner with the defending champs the Cleveland Cavaliers against the Golden State Warriors. I said I'd pop in the betting thread on special occasions and well this is a biggie. I'm one of the premier NBA handicappers in the world and make consistent profit betting this game. Don't take my word for it, search my NBA betting history on sherdog and I'm 10-1 or so. My last tip was Clippers +4 & ML against the Cavs as underdogs and both bets hit like a baseball bat making contact with a wiffle ball.

I'm giving away another Christmas holiday present for you with a free tail play. Today we go with the Cavaliers, ran my numbers and simulations and feel like this is an +EV play. Don't ask me how I come to decide my bets because it's not important. Just know that a) I'm a very solid NBA bettor b) I cap full time as my primary job c) I know what I'm doing PERIOD!
I fully understand I come off as braggadocious, but this isn't for the weak and certainly not for the unconfident. I've earned my stripes as a professional sports bettor.

Pick: Cavaliers +4 +100

Depending on how I feel I may have a gold star pick for ya'll for UFC 207. We'll see, no promises or guarantees. Can't be giving away too much value and free money

- Barry

 

[mkess101]

Nice. Ok what are the parameters? Risk 1.1u on favorites covering the spread is given, but do you want to hedge for no loss w the underdog or do you want to risk one unit on the underdog? There's a lot of ways we can do this

For the sake of ease let's say 1u bets on dog ML.

 

[mkess101]

Mods must have denied Barry's request to delete his account here.

The Sherdog community would not be denied the genius of Barry.

 

[iGnP]

For the sake of ease let's say 1u bets on dog ML.

Ok done give me a bit to do it w Christmas and all. Wanna take a guess to what the final tally will be? (Im omitting games in which the spread is below 2 because more often than not, the ML of the underdog isnt higher than +110 so it makes no sense if there will be no profit)

 

[mkess101]

Ok done give me a bit to do it w Christmas and all. Wanna take a guess to what the final tally will be? (Im omitting games in which the spread is below 2 because more often than not, the ML of the underdog isnt higher than +110 so it makes no sense if there will be no profit)

Just based on what you posted earlier I think it's solidly in the green.

 

[t6p]

Typically wouldn't play all these games but I want action today:

0.5u Warriors -3
0.5u Bulls +9

Leaning Thunder -4.5 too.