UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

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I, for one, am shocked that Cruz isn't -300 or -400 against a very unproven Garbrandt. I mean Cruz was -425 against Faber, who I would still favor over Garbrandt if they fought today.

Cruz has the PERFECT stylistic matchup to frustrate the hell out of a young, relatively inexperienced guy like Garbrandt. Plus after all the interviews showing how big of a hot head Garbrandt is and how emotional he will be in this fight. I feel like if your not betting Garbrandt KO round 1, you are just throwing you money away because after that adrenaline dump wears off and he starts to build up that lactic acid in his arms from swing at air for 5-7 minutes he is going to be fodder for Cruz's takedowns. Hell, I could see Cruz even getting a finish from GnP in rounds 2-4.
 
Outcomw of r5 rr nunes to go distance +600 lol worth a stab as if it goes to r5 much better chance than +600 it goes distance.
 
HumbleCoco said:
Late to it maybe but I'm now in for 2u on Nunes, 0.5u on KO R1. I talked it over with a friend and to be honest I just had nothing to justify picking Rousey stylistically. Nunes does such a good job of remaining patient, she doesn't clinch up or shoot like Cat or Tate, she picks her power shots. Rousey has to work some way into the clinch, this used to be opponents kinda giving it to her, or not having the skills to deny it. Can you imagine being Rousey when that first hand hits? She'll probably see red and charge, then she gets hit by another but this time against the momentum of her bullrushing. Then what? What other skills has she shown to engage the clinch (which is her only route to victory).

It's not to say it's impossible. It literally only requires a momentum of lack of discipline of Nunes so I hope she contains herself on this big stage. Any other fight with this stylistic match up I would be all over Nunes so I have to do it here too. I also have two units on fight to end by submission at 1.9 because I was unsure before and really liked the line. If I could I would probably reduce it by a unit but I still think it's still likely that Nunes could finish with a rear naked once Rousey shells up on the ground.
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I have to disagree with your thoughts on Nunes. I don't see her as patient at all. She's typically very aggressive and a lot of times comes forward somewhat sloppily looking to land her big shots. She knows how weak her cardio is and the longer this fight goes the more it's going to favor Rousey IMO. I fully expect Nunes to be looking to end the fight early. She has 1 win in Strikeforce/Invicta/UFC that's gone past the first round, and she was completely gassed and dominated in the third round of that fight. I actually see Ronda having more paths to victory here.
 
t6p said:
I have to disagree with your thoughts on Nunes. I don't see her as patient at all. She's typically very aggressive and a lot of times comes forward somewhat sloppily looking to land her big shots. She knows how weak her cardio is and the longer this fight goes the more it's going to favor Rousey IMO. I fully expect Nunes to be looking to end the fight early. She has 1 win in Strikeforce/Invicta/UFC that's gone past the first round, and she was completely gassed and dominated in the third round of that fight. I actually see Ronda having more paths to victory here.
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Idk about more paths for Ronda. She has one path, same one as always. Clinch, throw, armbar. Thats it. Nunes will be the better striker, and if Nunes can score a td like Holm did she won't let Ronda up like Holm. She will brutalize her
 
Joseph Budden said:
Idk about more paths for Ronda. She has one path, same one as always. Clinch, throw, armbar. Thats it. Nunes will be the better striker, and if Nunes can score a td like Holm did she won't let Ronda up like Holm. She will brutalize her
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We pretty rarely see Ronda on her back, but I have to say that I was really impressed when she was there vs. Tate. I honestly don't think Nunes would be able to keep top position for an extended period of time without being in danger or Ronda getting the space to get out or reverse. Granted, Nunes can land a huge bomb quickly, but I think Nunes going to the ground in any fashion is a bad idea.
 
TJ + Cruz most significant strikes + Rousey in R1,2 or 3 @ +450

Really like that one, feel that these guys could get most significant strikes even if they don't win.
 
Oblivian said:
We pretty rarely see Ronda on her back, but I have to say that I was really impressed when she was there vs. Tate. I honestly don't think Nunes would be able to keep top position for an extended period of time without being in danger or Ronda getting the space to get out or reverse. Granted, Nunes can land a huge bomb quickly, but I think Nunes going to the ground in any fashion is a bad idea.
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Yeah i'd say the biggest question mark position in this fight that we could likely see is Nunes with top control (might not even see this since Nunes is a clinch td fighter too, but have to consider it a possible hypothetical if Holm could wrestle Ronda down). Coming from a camp as good as ATT with a BJJ black belt already, and a proven very good top game, I'm leaning toward favoring Nunes to posture up and drop some bombs on Ronda if we get there
 
Joseph Budden said:
Yeah i'd say the biggest question mark position in this fight that we could likely see is Nunes with top control (might not even see this since Nunes is a clinch td fighter too, but have to consider it a possible hypothetical if Holm could wrestle Ronda down). Coming from a camp as good as ATT with a BJJ black belt already, and a proven very good top game, I'm leaning toward favoring Nunes to posture up and drop some bombs on Ronda if we get there
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I agree with Oblivian that Nunes should be looking to keep this fight off the ground. But if the scenario your describing ends up happening, Nunes will almost NEED to finish her at that point. Which is basically what I meant by more paths to victory for Ronda. Nunes had top position against Zingano for most of the first round IIRC and then she gassed and proceeded to get crushed. Both girls can end this fight early, but like I said the longer it goes Amanda's chances of winning reduce dramatically. Amanda has also looked helpless off her back, another reason she'll want to keep the fight standing.
 
t6p said:
I have to disagree with your thoughts on Nunes. I don't see her as patient at all. She's typically very aggressive and a lot of times comes forward somewhat sloppily looking to land her big shots. She knows how weak her cardio is and the longer this fight goes the more it's going to favor Rousey IMO. I fully expect Nunes to be looking to end the fight early. She has 1 win in Strikeforce/Invicta/UFC that's gone past the first round, and she was completely gassed and dominated in the third round of that fight. I actually see Ronda having more paths to victory here.
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at around the thirteen minute mark helwani asks her how she envisions the fight going. She responds saying that she has to keep her patience like in ufc 200 and she will have her openings eventually. Of course saying and doing are two different things but at least she is aware of it.

 
If Amanda doesnt get the win in the first round I dont give her much of a chance
 
Guys just wanted to check in now since I won't be here much tonight at all. I might try to pop in on my phone a couple times but even that is iffy.

I hope the biggest beatdown tonight is the one we all give the books. BOL fellas and I'll catch you all soon!
 
rille31 said:
If Amanda doesnt get the win in the first round I dont give her much of a chance
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It depends what happens in the first round, if Amanda is piecing Ronda up on the feet then I don't see much issue. Its not like Ronda has a proven gas tank either.
 
vkram said:
It depends what happens in the first round, if Amanda is piecing Ronda up on the feet then I don't see much issue. Its not like Ronda has a proven gas tank either.
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ronda looked fresh in the 3rd round miesha fight. i think she can go 5 rounds too if she needs 2
 
Officer_Brown said:
ronda looked fresh in the 3rd round miesha fight. i think she can go 5 rounds too if she needs 2
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It was a fight that she was winning pretty easily, she also look tired in the second vs Holly. I think if it goes to the second it may actually favour Nunes since it means that Rousey was unable to clinch up and armbar her. Therefore, it is likely that the majority of the round took place on the feet where Nunes has an advantage.
 
vkram said:
It was a fight that she was winning pretty easily, she also look tired in the second vs Holly. I think if it goes to the second it may actually favour Nunes since it means that Rousey was unable to clinch up and armbar her. Therefore, it is likely that the majority of the round took place on the feet where Nunes has an advantage.
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we shouldnt take the holm fight too seriously. everyone has some bad nights. before holm she wrecked everybody. i can say from my own experience that the amount of cardio i have in my training is different every day. it depends what you eat, how much you sleep etc. I think we dont have to worry about ronda's cardio.
 
Officer_Brown said:
we shouldnt take the holm fight too seriously. everyone has some bad nights. before holm she wrecked everybody. i can say from my own experience that the amount of cardio i have in my training is different every day. it depends what you eat, how much you sleep etc. I think we dont have to worry about ronda's cardio.
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Maybe so, but what do you see happening in round 1 if there is no finish from either side? Do you think Nunes will gas trying to finish Ronda and then Ronda will come back in the second round or will Ronda take her down but not be able to get the finish? Very interesting fight for me because I think it will be a dominant win but no idea for who.
 
vkram said:
Maybe so, but what do you see happening in round 1 if there is no finish from either side? Do you think Nunes will gas trying to finish Ronda and then Ronda will come back in the second round or will Ronda take her down but not be able to get the finish? Very interesting fight for me because I think it will be a dominant win but no idea for who.
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difficult to say but i think ronda will push the pace after the first round. i see amanda circling a lot and ronda chasing her but if you go backwards you dont have punching power. amanda is orthodox fighter and doesnt cut the angles like holly did. in stand up wise it will be easier fight for ronda. i wouldnt be surpised if this goes to a decision.
 
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