UFN 105 - Lewis vs Browne - Halifax

[MMA Goodfella]

Seems are we are pushing for a AV bet. Are you up for that.. I take Pig Rigg

lol I'm locked in with iGnP but perhaps I can do an avy best with you and aig bet with him sure.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Travis says he has seen everything that BB brings to the table.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

All of these assumptions about Hendricks looking worse at 185 make literally zero sense to me. The guy would cut weight to the point his body shut down before even making 170, but somehow people expect him to look worse when he doesn't have to put his body through that? If anything, I'd be expecting him to perform better......

For Christ sake he's only 5'9" tall, he's going to be and exceptionally small middleweight in comparison to yoga well Romero and Jacare and others. At 5'9" tall he should have absolutely no problem making the 170 pound weight limit. I know that he is a dance man, but Tyron Woodley makes the weight as does Colby Covington, Neil Magny, Stephen Thompson, Jake Ellenberger, Robbie Lawler and a host of other fighters larger than Johny. The problem with Bigg Rigg isn't making the weight because of size, but rather his non-commitment to the sport as of late. Additionally, he was in multiple wars with Robbie — and I believe it has taken a toll on him.

He has never been especially fast or supremely athletic, but was a very talented wrestler with heavy hands. I also believe he got a bit overrated after a few knockouts. Yes he gave GSP & Robbie all they could handle, but remember that he is the same character who lost a decision to Rick Story, went to a split decision with an elderly Josh Koscheck and was in a virtual tossup fight — and another SD – with Mike Pierce. Those were a trio of fights and his prime no less. The inability to clearly win fights against Kos and Pierce in his prime should make it a bit less surprising that he was unable to get his hand raised against Kelvin, Magney and Wonderboy after USADA and the wars he had.

185 pounds I expect to see the exact same Johny that we have seen at 170 pounds only he will be out sized and his wrestling will be just as ineffective.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Travis says he has seen everything that BB brings to the table.

Lol it legit looks like Robin's trying to show him some details to beat Lewis while stroking his ego a bit and Travis gets big headed and acts like he knows this already.

This dude is perfect for Ronda and Edmond. The Glendale Love Triangle.

 

[iGnP]

For Christ sake he's only 5'9" tall, he's going to be and exceptionally small middleweight in comparison to yoga well Romero and Jacare and others. At 5'9" tall he should have absolutely no problem making the 170 pound weight limit. I know that he is a dance man, but Tyron Woodley makes the weight as does Colby Covington, Neil Magny, Stephen Thompson, Jake Ellenberger, Robbie Lawler and a host of other fighters larger than Johny. The problem with Bigg Rigg isn't making the weight because of size, but rather his non-commitment to the sport as of late. Additionally, he was in multiple wars with Robbie — and I believe it has taken a toll on him.

He has never been especially fast or supremely athletic, but was a very talented wrestler with heavy hands. I also believe he got a bit overrated after a few knockouts. Yes he gave GSP & Robbie all they could handle, but remember that he is the same character who lost a decision to Rick Story, went to a split decision with an elderly Josh Koscheck and was in a virtual tossup fight — and another SD – with Mike Pierce. Those were a trio of fights and his prime no less. The inability to clearly win fights against Kos and Pierce in his prime should make it a bit less surprising that he was unable to get his hand raised against Kelvin, Magney and Wonderboy after USADA and the wars he had.

185 pounds I expect to see the exact same Johny that we have seen at 170 pounds only he will be out sized and his wrestling will be just as ineffective.

At 19 years old he wrestled at 165 lbs. You wanna tell me that at 32 years old, he should still be able to cut to 170 lbs easily? IDK man, sometimes your body just cant take it anymore. I'm sure he's got a lot more muscle on him since then as well. Also, all those weight cuts really take a toll on your body throughout the years.

 

[Joseph Budden]

For Christ sake he's only 5'9" tall, he's going to be and exceptionally small middleweight in comparison to yoga well Romero and Jacare and others. At 5'9" tall he should have absolutely no problem making the 170 pound weight limit. I know that he is a dance man, but Tyron Woodley makes the weight as does Colby Covington, Neil Magny, Stephen Thompson, Jake Ellenberger, Robbie Lawler and a host of other fighters larger than Johny. The problem with Bigg Rigg isn't making the weight because of size, but rather his non-commitment to the sport as of late. Additionally, he was in multiple wars with Robbie — and I believe it has taken a toll on him.

He has never been especially fast or supremely athletic, but was a very talented wrestler with heavy hands. I also believe he got a bit overrated after a few knockouts. Yes he gave GSP & Robbie all they could handle, but remember that he is the same character who lost a decision to Rick Story, went to a split decision with an elderly Josh Koscheck and was in a virtual tossup fight — and another SD – with Mike Pierce. Those were a trio of fights and his prime no less. The inability to clearly win fights against Kos and Pierce in his prime should make it a bit less surprising that he was unable to get his hand raised against Kelvin, Magney and Wonderboy after USADA and the wars he had.

185 pounds I expect to see the exact same Johny that we have seen at 170 pounds only he will be out sized and his wrestling will be just as ineffective.

Yeah, hes going to run into problems with the bigger MWs. Thats not Lombard. Hes the same height. Also, other fighters making the weight is irrelevant when Hendricks is the only person we need to look at. Guys of all shapes and sizes fight in all the weight classes. To assume Hendricks is going to perform worse in this fight cause hes going to 185 just doesn't seem sensible. How exactly is not putting his body through that going to have a negative impact on his performance?

Yeah hes been in wars, but Lombard's last two fights were a vicious beatdown and an even more vicious KO.

I wouldn't call fights with Pierce, Story, etc his prime when he clearly looked improved vs Condit, Lawler, GSP, etc. but athletically he wasn't much different in either of those phases of his career. Just seemed to deepen his technical skillset, and with experience got better with his timing and finding and phasing attacks that work in all ranges.

I think his wrestling is likely shut down here, but def not due to size disadvantage just from Lombard having great tdd, while fresh, at least. Which is another big concern, Lombards cardio has been shit lately. Nvm the Magny fight cause he went all out, but he literally was tired after one burst vs Hendo.

Other than maybe taking a shot at Lombard dec +3xx, I can't get behind his moneyline. His redflags are worse than Hendricks' imo, especially if i'm on the right side of the assumption regarding an easier weight cut helping him perform better

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Gonna rewatch Marshman vs Cedenblad but i'm strongly favoring Santos via KO. Don't let the pillow hands of Magnus fool you into thinking Marshman has a serious chin on him. Marshman has been dropped badly in the regionals by guys with a bit of power, and his defense is not good. Hard to see Santos not capitalizing on the aggression of Marshman and his bad defense by landing a huge shot.

I wholeheartedly agree. If you were trying to get Tiago Santos a victory, you couldn't pick a better stylistic match up then Jack Marshmallow. I say this because Santos will be able to utilize his kickboxing and power MT without the fear of td's and power strikes coming back his way. Marshmallow is about the most middling of middleweights there are on a roster of middling middleweights.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Yeah, hes going to run into problems with the bigger MWs. Thats not Lombard. Hes the same height. Also, other fighters making the weight is irrelevant when Hendricks is the only person we need to look at. Guys of all shapes and sizes fight in all the weight classes. To assume Hendricks is going to perform worse in this fight cause hes going to 185 just doesn't seem sensible. How exactly is not putting his body through that going to have a negative impact on his performance?

Yeah hes been in wars, but Lombard's last two fights were a vicious beatdown and an even more vicious KO.

I wouldn't call fights with Pierce, Story, etc his prime when he clearly looked improved vs Condit, Lawler, GSP, etc. but athletically he wasn't much different in either of those phases of his career. Just seemed to deepen his technical skillset, and with experience got better with his timing and finding and phasing attacks that work in all ranges.

I think his wrestling is likely shut down here, but def not due to size disadvantage just from Lombard having great tdd, while fresh, at least. Which is another big concern, Lombards cardio has been shit lately. Nvm the Magny fight cause he went all out, but he literally was tired after one burst vs Hendo.

Other than maybe taking a shot at Lombard dec +3xx, I can't get behind his moneyline. His redflags are worse than Hendricks' imo, especially if i'm on the right side of the assumption regarding an easier weight cut helping him perform better

We will just agree to disagree here LOL it's not like I'm going to be dumping a massive wager on Lombard either. I'm just of the opinion that the Johny that we have seen at 170 pounds is most likely the same fighter that we are going to see at 185 pounds. What's more, Lombard should be able to negate all of his takedowns and I don't believe that Johny's boxing is anywhere near the level of Hectors. And yes, Hector has lost twice, but he was absolutely man handling Magny before gassing out — after going for the early finish — and then he was caught with a weird ass shot from Henderson. At any rate, neither of these two can be trusted at this point and putting a bet on either man is pretty gutsy at this point.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

At 19 years old he wrestled at 165 lbs. You wanna tell me that at 32 years old, he should still be able to cut to 170 lbs easily? IDK man, sometimes your body just cant take it anymore. I'm sure he's got a lot more muscle on him since then as well. Also, all those weight cuts really take a toll on your body throughout the years.

Well, he is only 5'9" tall, and while he is dense, it isn't as if he is a hundred-year-old Redwood like Paul Harris. That is a Palharres who himself was able to make 170 pounds no less. We're also not talking about Rumble Johnson here. What's more, Johny Hendricks is 33 and not 40 years old, so the inability to make 170 pounds is more to do with his diet in my opinion. Like I said, GSP, Robbie, Ellenberger, WB, Maia, Saff, DHK and Woodley all consistently make the weight and are equally as big or bigger than Johny is. The only difference IMO is their commitment to their craft. But again we will just agree to disagree and if you feel like a bet on Johny is what's best then by all means have at it brother!

 

[Timurd123]

Im on the opposite side completely Goodfella, Hendricks as as flakey as it gets, and I always condemn playing him, but Lombard practically has a punchers chance

He doesnt set shit up, he stands with his hand out and waits for a shot, Hendricks has fought plenty of bombers and he avoids eating them straight, he has fought way better strikers and shouldnt have a massive problem with off the juice Lombard

And Santos has shit hands, if Marhsmellow can put his elbow down and walk through some of those kicks, he can put his hands on Santos who also happens to be a flake, and then who knows what happens

 

[iGnP]

Well, he is only 5'9" tall, and while he is dense, it isn't as if he is a hundred-year-old Redwood like Paul Harris. That is a Palharres who himself was able to make 170 pounds no less. We're also not talking about Rumble Johnson here. What's more, Johny Hendricks is 33 and not 40 years old, so the inability to make 170 pounds is more to do with his diet in my opinion. Like I said, GSP, Robbie, Ellenberger, WB, Maia, Saff, DHK and Woodley all consistently make the weight and are equally as big or bigger than Johny is. The only difference IMO is their commitment to their craft. But again we will just agree to disagree and if you feel like a bet on Johny is what's best then by all means have at it brother!

Don't worry, your sig/AV will surely have Pig Rigg in it do you have a preference to whether we do AV or sig?

 

[Agent Mulder]

I swear, I still don't know a lot of you are saying that Anderson legitimately win that fight and that Brunson was cheated. I mean was it close? Certainly. Was it a robbery? Hell fucking no. The word "robbery" should be used sparingly or else it loses its meaning. It should be used in extreme cases such as Diego Sanchez vs Martin Kampman or Sanchez versus Ross Pearson. Fights where one guy is the victor and everyone knows it's wrong. In this case, people are throwing around the word robbery and being hyperbolic.

First of all, Anderson Silva is 41 fucking years old, the fact that a prime Brunson couldn't put him away or drop him at any point in the fight is an indictment to his own personal failings and not the judges. Second, DB was panic wrestling the entire match. He was getting teed off on with jabs that looked like they were shot from a whaling harpoon and then he would go all Brock Lesnar and panic wrestle. Worse still, he only hit like 2 out of the 11 of TD's and did absolutely no damage at all on the mat. Moreover, the new rules are you have to do something when you have your opponent on the ground or that lay and pray shit doesn't count anymore.

At any rate, rounds one and two were fairly close yet Andy was doing the stalking and Brunson was backing up then panic wrestling. Anderson defended almost all the takedowns and the only damage that he was taking were brief uppercuts in the clinch. None of which caused his 41-year-old knees to buckle. I don't see how anyone can blame the judges for that. Simply put, DB wasn't engaging and a 41-year-old Anderson Silva was chasing him around the cage and shrugging off nearly every single take down that was attempted.

As for Holly and GDR, that's even more of a stretch to say that Holly won that fight. Should a point have been deducted? Yes, that would've been reasonable, but that doesn't mean that Holly won the fight. Again, aside from that head kick, she landed jack shit and was getting lit up on the feet. That was another case of Kampman vs Sanchez except this time the judges got it right. Holly was grunting her way through air punches in her best Leonard Garcia impersonation and the judges just didn't buy that shit.

/Rant

Well said sir.

 

[Sadistics]

I was starting to regret making my 10 unit parlay a 3 teamer with Felder but rewatched some tape and feel really good about it.

Ricci was dominated by the scrawny 145lb junior bacon cheeseburger Jeremy Kennedy 5 months ago. He showed poor defense, no footwork, and gassed heavily. He was ranked #3 in Canada prior to his debut, I watched his previous fights and wasn't impressed. His base is Muay Thai with a bit of defensive grappling. He has average volume with low power, a lot of light leg kicks.

I think Felder's style is gonna fuck with him, Felder has a Muay Thai stance but he throws TKD kicks and other general MMA strikes that you don't often see from that stance. His strikes will hold a lot more weight with the new scoring, low volume isn't as big of a worry. He holds the advantage in all areas, if he chooses to he can manhandle Ricci in the clinch or on the ground, he has great trips from the clinch. This will be his easiest opponent in the UFC by far and I wouldn't be surprised to see a KO or a sub.

 

[trucido]

Look at people like Cerrone, Gastelum and Masvidal who all moved up a weight class and looked like different fighters. Hendricks clearly puts his body under a tonne of stress to make the weight, I think that not having to cut an extra 15 pounds will give him so much more energy, he might even enjoy his training camp now his diet will be less strict.

I've never been impressed by Lombard tbh, he has power yes, but he sets nothing up, he blitzes once-twice a round then coasts and does fuck all. I see Hendricks winning this quite easily, 29-28 Hendricks, might be one of my bigger bets of the night.

 

[rille31]

Ronda markos +245 looks a bit off with this likely going to the cards and being in canada

 

[rille31]

His strikes will hold a lot more weight with the new scoring, low volume isn't as big of a worry.

Dont think we have confirmed the new scoring in canada, to my knowledge its only most states in the us of a

 

[lawmills2006]

The reservation I have for Hendricks is, we have no idea how the repeated failed weight cuts will have affected him. If he comes in anywhere close to how he looked against GSP, this fight is a wash IMO. I just wonder if he's irreversibly wrecked his body.

I have faith he hasn't though, playing 1u Big Rigg, and potentially 2u more after 1st round.

 

[HumbleCoco]

Done a bit of tape watch on Reginaldo Vieira. He's the winner of TUF:Brazil 4, take that for what it's worth. He's got a few little tricks on the feet, some variations of counters that came out in his last outing, a good jab (that he doesn't use much) and he tries to parlay it into a heavy right hand but it often leaves him clashing into his opponent, he's also really quite slow, especially for bantamweight. I think this is often made worse but him circling and then jumping in with the 1,2, sometimes mixing it to the body which becomes fairly formulaic and definitely telegraphed. Also the rhythm in his fights you could practically hum along to. He does also try to bang it out with hooks if he feels he's got someone corned but he's no Lineker and his hooks end up half rotations. For the ground he's got some chops with many subs, especially guillotines, to his record, which he isn't afraid to pull guard into at every kind of half opportunity, and has attempted to grind out opponents before but his balance and control on top is wishy washy, often getting shrugged away as people stand. The guillotine it a bit of an outdated weapon today in my opinion, and you often see him burn out his arms and end up on bottom while he recovers, still with a hand draped around the neck and I'm not sure he has the dynamism at his age to use the explosive move.

I think the main story of his overall game is that it doesn't feel cohesive at all. He doesn't seem to take actions to bring about progression towards much of anything. I've trained a bit here and there and I feel I've got a pretty full understanding of what he brings to the table, I can only imagine how in depth Firas can separate the threads of an already fragmented game. He's done interviews explaining how he had a lot injuries in the TUF house, he apparently broke his nose in the TUF finale and was nearly KO'd by an upkick in his last fight and he's only getting older and unlikely to be receiving day in day out high level training in the intervening time.

Moving to Zahabi, I find the tape pretty impressive, especially the ground work. It's definitely knowledgable and technical, if perhaps lacking in explosive wrestling but I can easily see him pass through Vieria's guard after a failed guillotine. His hands look good, especially good a gauging distance and controlling that distance, very tristar unsurprisingly. I can only imagine that the quality of sparring partners will allow him to see the telegraphed shots incoming. However, fights and sparring partners are completely different and he has not faced nearly anyone of a high or even medium high standard but in my honest assessment I don't feel like Vieria is either, he's a TUF fighter, which is basically a pretty successful regional Brazilian fighter and not one with much scope to blossom into anything impressive on the UFC stage.

I don't think there's enough of a A to B route to victory for Vieria other than output, which is pretty low anyway and could easily be caught up to with some of the good kicks you can see from Zahabi from the outside, he's just too gameplan-able. My final pick is that Zahabi will find his cool and catch a submission, most likely in transistion, to be specific, he probably shoots an okay takedown, gets into a guillotine, works his way around, eventually Vieria stands in response to ground and pound and has his back taken.

I came in hoping to find a viable underdog but even with Zahabi having so little experience against for sure substandard competition, there's enough there I feel he probably should be favoured. This has been matched with a good chance of upside for the newcomer. There's definitely an argument that under the new rules the stand and bang style forward fighter will look better than a debuting fighter trying to find his feet, and I don't think I can blame anyone if they decide that's worth a bet, as the line is probably too steep and it would probably only take a couple of really shitty hooks up against the fence for a judge. I'm steering clear however. Think this is value trap and the matchmakers will get what they want out of this spot.

 

[Oblivian]

I haven't bet Lombard vs. Hendricks at all, but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Hendricks come in as a fat fuck struggling to make 185 lbs or have the opposite happen where he is undersized. Counting on him to settle in at a MW with a normal cut on his first try would be the biggest jump in logic as he hasn't figured out his weight + cut for a long time now.

 

[NorthernLights]

Santos/Marshman o1.5 at around 2.10, under is 1.72...is an early finish really that likely in this fight? Feel like the over has some value