UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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Elkins have a ton more experience, have better wins on his record and Bektic have never faced anyone that brings the preasure like Elkins does.. that alone is enough for me to take +450 even if i think Bektic is super legit
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Pretty self explanatory with Elkins. The guy is a spoiler and consistently underestimated. I posted his record earlier as an underdog (7-4) and he's literally been an underdog in 11 of 15 UFC fights. The guy has an 11-4 UFC record and that's with being an underdog 11 times!
The fight will likely have a lot of scrambles if Bektic chooses to grapple which is likely. I don't think he's fought anyone with the pace of Elkins. Elkins also makes it gritty in the clinch and against the fence. The only similar fighter Bektic has fought is Skelly. Everyone talks about the knee, but the knee was after Bektic having issues with Skelly making it ugly. I'm not even sure if the knee would be illegal under the new rules (I'd have to rewatch). I think it's likely this fight comes down to being a close decision.
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+450 for a B level gatekeeper vs an unproven newcomer is almost an auto bet.
On top of that Bektic struggled vs a guy Elkins easily beat. That knee that almost finished Bektic is now borderline legal in the new ruleset, so he was close to getting an actual stoppage loss there.
That's enough for me at that price, easily.
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No but I do like to have some belief in my dogs. I don't have that with Elkins. I don't really make predictions I just have leans and I'm always looking for an inflated price next to that lean.
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I don't think I really agree w the Skelly part. Bektic definitely won round 1 and 3 IMO. Even if you wanna argue that Skelly was winning round 2 before the knee, it was a pretty damn close round up until that point. I think you can make an argument that Bektic wins that fight 30-26 just as much as you can that the fight should have been a draw. For the record, it's obv not a big deal, but the fight was a majority decision, not a split. The one judge ruled the fight a draw, not a win for Skelly
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Unproven newcomer? This is gonna be Bektic's 5th UFC fight. He hasn't beaten any world beater but I don't really think Elkins fits into that description either. And come on, Bektic did not struggle with Skelly. Not even close
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It's dropping. 2.62 at bet365 but 2.50 at Unibet. Put 0.5U at 2.62, not super confident but I like it.
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It's just another fight for me, I had a bad day, was like an off day in sparring, I took his best shot and I kept on going, I sleep before the fight back stage, I don't look for the KO, i just let it happen, he has great wrestling, but he doesn't use it alot, Last time I tried to walk around his weight, was the Matt brown fight, the cut almost killed me, I cried while watching The Fault in Our Stars
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If you don't think bektic struggled with skelly you are blind.
He is unproven vs upper level guys.
We are talking about +450.
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He ruled it a draw because of the point deduction. On every scorecard (and play by play that I've seen - not sure though as I am not a member to mmadecisions) Bektic lost rd 2. The difference was a judge gave Skelly rd 3, just like some of the play by plays did.
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Right. If you ignore the point deduction, which could be a stoppage under the new rules, then the fight is a split dec. Let's be objective here, it was a close fight.
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I think Bektic crushes him but not paying juice aside a small bet in a crazy running parlay since the start of 2017.
Chas and lucas martins are common opponents.
Bektic killed Martins. Decisioned Chas but impressed the hell out of me. He was 22 or something like that taking on a really good wrestler and taking him down IIRC.
Chas and lucas martins are common opponents.
Bektic killed Martins. Decisioned Chas but impressed the hell out of me. He was 22 or something like that taking on a really good wrestler and taking him down IIRC.
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http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2017/2/2...o-vs-cooper-andre-soukhamthath-vs-morales-mma
Who is Daniel Spitz?
The 26-year-old heavyweight comes to the UFC training out of Sikjitsu in Spokane, Washington. It’s the camp that’s brought Michael Chiesa, Julianna Pena, Elizabeth Phillips, and Sam Sicilia to the UFC. He’ll enter the Octagon with an undefeated 5-0 record. His most notable victory comes over long time veteran and former notable UFC talent, Wesley “Cabbage” Correira. But even with that win, his record so far consists entirely of debuting fighters and .500 journeyman vets. He’s only been to decision once, in his bout with Correira. Outside of MMA, Spitz played football for Washington State as an offensive lineman.
What you should expect:
Standing 6’ 7” and with a reasonable amount of coordination from his football playing days, there’s a lot of basics to like about Spitz. He seems to have a natural feel for striking, working behind a jab (even throwing it to the body occasionally!) and shows signs of potentially developing some combinations behind it. Without a doubt, he does his best work from the clinch, using his long frame to throw powerful knees. But he does a reasonable enough job not “fighting tall” that he doesn’t have the sitting target feel at range that a lot of other really tall fighters do.
Because he is as big as he is, however, he doesn’t seem to be much of a wrestler. Most of that is probably just down to physics and the difficulty of getting a frame that big low enough to generate takedown leverage. But given his clinch work, it’d be nice to see him develop at least a trip and drag game.
The biggest thing that could potentially hinder his UFC success is that he just doesn’t look particularly fast. His hand and foot speed aren’t great, which could mean he’ll lack the dynamic offensive potentially of Travis Browne who is about the same size. He does show signs of a surprisingly decent gas tank, fighting well into the third round of his one decision.
What this means for his debut:
The only real question I have is, is Mark Godbeer durable enough to fight guys as big as the UFC has been signing. Because if he is, he should have this fight sewn up. He’s giving up 3 inches of height to Spitz, but should have a major foot speed and technical striking advantage. I don’t see anything in Spitz’s wrestling game to suggest he’d even try to take Godbeer down, let alone have the technique to do so. So it should be mostly a kickboxing battle. That would be Godbeer’s fight, but at heavyweight, it’s often all about durability and gastank.
Who is Daniel Spitz?
The 26-year-old heavyweight comes to the UFC training out of Sikjitsu in Spokane, Washington. It’s the camp that’s brought Michael Chiesa, Julianna Pena, Elizabeth Phillips, and Sam Sicilia to the UFC. He’ll enter the Octagon with an undefeated 5-0 record. His most notable victory comes over long time veteran and former notable UFC talent, Wesley “Cabbage” Correira. But even with that win, his record so far consists entirely of debuting fighters and .500 journeyman vets. He’s only been to decision once, in his bout with Correira. Outside of MMA, Spitz played football for Washington State as an offensive lineman.
What you should expect:
Standing 6’ 7” and with a reasonable amount of coordination from his football playing days, there’s a lot of basics to like about Spitz. He seems to have a natural feel for striking, working behind a jab (even throwing it to the body occasionally!) and shows signs of potentially developing some combinations behind it. Without a doubt, he does his best work from the clinch, using his long frame to throw powerful knees. But he does a reasonable enough job not “fighting tall” that he doesn’t have the sitting target feel at range that a lot of other really tall fighters do.
Because he is as big as he is, however, he doesn’t seem to be much of a wrestler. Most of that is probably just down to physics and the difficulty of getting a frame that big low enough to generate takedown leverage. But given his clinch work, it’d be nice to see him develop at least a trip and drag game.
The biggest thing that could potentially hinder his UFC success is that he just doesn’t look particularly fast. His hand and foot speed aren’t great, which could mean he’ll lack the dynamic offensive potentially of Travis Browne who is about the same size. He does show signs of a surprisingly decent gas tank, fighting well into the third round of his one decision.
What this means for his debut:
The only real question I have is, is Mark Godbeer durable enough to fight guys as big as the UFC has been signing. Because if he is, he should have this fight sewn up. He’s giving up 3 inches of height to Spitz, but should have a major foot speed and technical striking advantage. I don’t see anything in Spitz’s wrestling game to suggest he’d even try to take Godbeer down, let alone have the technique to do so. So it should be mostly a kickboxing battle. That would be Godbeer’s fight, but at heavyweight, it’s often all about durability and gastank.
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http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2017/2/2...o-vs-cooper-andre-soukhamthath-vs-morales-mma
Who is Cynthia Calvillo?
Team Alpha Male’s Calvillo is a 29-year-old strawweight fighter. Coming from one of MMA’s more prestigious camps, she should be arriving in the UFC with a lot of solid training and sparring experience under her belt working alongside Paige VanZant, Lance Palmer, and Chad Mendes among many others. Calvillo is set to maker he Octagon debut carrying a 3-0 record, most recently beating 6-3 Montana Stewart. Otherwise her level of competition is about what you’d expect for a prospect with less than 5 bouts. It is worth noting, however, that Calvillo does hold an amateur win over undefeated Invicta prospect Aspen Ladd.
What you should expect:
If MMA is Cynthia Calvillo’s first martial art, it seems she’s taken to the wrestling aspect of it really naturally. Calvillo has a solid understanding of trip and drag takedowns as well as getting in on double legs against the fence, and does a great job not just finishing takedowns, but keeping control once the fight hits the mat. She’s got a very flowy grappling game, that emphasizes quick back takes and body locks.
Standing, Calvillo looks like she’s spent a lot of time working on the fundamentals of footwork and head movement, but she still doesn’t have the mechanics of being a comfortable puncher. When she chooses to throw, she can be a bit stationary, and often ends up eating a shot or two when trying to land her own. She also doesn’t seem particularly willing to really commit to strikes at this point in her career. But she does use her movement nicely to set up takedowns either as opponents come in or disguised by her own feints as she enters the pocket.
What this means for her debut:
This should be an interesting fight. Cooper is the far, far more comfortable striker on her feet, but she’s hardly a knockout artist, instead tending to favor lots of quick movement and volume over sitting down on her punches. That could leave room for Calvillo to get in on her takedowns. Calvillo has good takedown defense, so I think she’ll be able to dictate whether she stays standing or not, and she’s got a much more patient, controlling ground game than Cooper. I’ll lean Calvillo here, but she has to make sure she gets the fight to the ground early in rounds.
--- Video in link
Who is Cynthia Calvillo?
Team Alpha Male’s Calvillo is a 29-year-old strawweight fighter. Coming from one of MMA’s more prestigious camps, she should be arriving in the UFC with a lot of solid training and sparring experience under her belt working alongside Paige VanZant, Lance Palmer, and Chad Mendes among many others. Calvillo is set to maker he Octagon debut carrying a 3-0 record, most recently beating 6-3 Montana Stewart. Otherwise her level of competition is about what you’d expect for a prospect with less than 5 bouts. It is worth noting, however, that Calvillo does hold an amateur win over undefeated Invicta prospect Aspen Ladd.
What you should expect:
If MMA is Cynthia Calvillo’s first martial art, it seems she’s taken to the wrestling aspect of it really naturally. Calvillo has a solid understanding of trip and drag takedowns as well as getting in on double legs against the fence, and does a great job not just finishing takedowns, but keeping control once the fight hits the mat. She’s got a very flowy grappling game, that emphasizes quick back takes and body locks.
Standing, Calvillo looks like she’s spent a lot of time working on the fundamentals of footwork and head movement, but she still doesn’t have the mechanics of being a comfortable puncher. When she chooses to throw, she can be a bit stationary, and often ends up eating a shot or two when trying to land her own. She also doesn’t seem particularly willing to really commit to strikes at this point in her career. But she does use her movement nicely to set up takedowns either as opponents come in or disguised by her own feints as she enters the pocket.
What this means for her debut:
This should be an interesting fight. Cooper is the far, far more comfortable striker on her feet, but she’s hardly a knockout artist, instead tending to favor lots of quick movement and volume over sitting down on her punches. That could leave room for Calvillo to get in on her takedowns. Calvillo has good takedown defense, so I think she’ll be able to dictate whether she stays standing or not, and she’s got a much more patient, controlling ground game than Cooper. I’ll lean Calvillo here, but she has to make sure she gets the fight to the ground early in rounds.
--- Video in link
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HOW do you give Skelly round 3? He didn't do anything outside of get on Bektic's back for a short period of time, in which he never even got close to a sub
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http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2017/2/2...o-vs-cooper-andre-soukhamthath-vs-morales-mma
Who is Andre Soukhamthath?
“The Asian Sensation” is a 28-year-old Laotian-American bantamweight and former Blackzilian team member now training at Combat Club under Henri Hooft along with Rashad Evans, Anthony Johnson and many other former Blackzilians. He’ll be making his debut in the UFC with an 11-3 pro-record and his status as the current CES bantamweight champion. He has wins over once-rumored UFC signing Carlos Galindo, as well as Bellator vets Blair Tugman and Kin Moy (the latter avenging an earlier career loss). Of his 11 career wins, only one comes by way of decision. Prior to MMA, Soukhamthath played soccer as a goalie.
What you should expect:
When Soukhamthath’s striking game is clicking he’s an incredibly dangerous fighter. Soukhamthath often works behind a very solid jab, picking his spots to throw more powerful combinations. He’s got great hand-speed and looks like he hits hard. His defensive movement when boxing is reasonably slick, and when he’s focused on finding counters, he does a marvelous job getting just barely out of the way of strikes to fire off a 2 or 3-punch combination in return.
The flip side of this is, that he has a bad habit of shelling up against incoming strikes. When he’s not pulling the trigger on the counter, Soukhamthath often defaults to backing straight up with a high guard and just letting his opponent try to punch around it. He can also be a bit lazy blocking head kicks, trusting that having one hand high on the kicking side will do the defensive work for him. Surprisingly for a former soccer player, he doesn’t seem interested in kicking much at all. Although he will occasionally throw one out if the opportunity arises.
Otherwise, Soukhamthath’s not a bad wrestler, focused mostly on staying upright. He can get caught out being a bit defensively lazy, just like with his stand up, but does well to emphasize getting to his feet quickly. He also does a decent job landing some ground and pound when he can stuff a shot or finding an opening to jump on a submission. But his ground game all seems more a part of an emphasis on transition striking and grappling than any interest in staying on the mat for more than a few seconds.
What this means for his debut:
This should be a firefight. Morales is likely the faster of the two fighters and the more consistently aggressive. But both men hit hard and want to box first and foremost. They also both seem very durable, despite having some real defensive liabilities. I might pick Morales, just because his speed and aggression could catch Soukhamthath out early (especially if he shells up and lets Morales flurry). But, if the fight lasts more than a round, Soukhamthath’s more patient and more technical approach could win out. Soukhamthath throws his hands a lot cleaner and tighter than Morales. It is also worth noting that Morales has an aggressive back take game that he uses really well if he can open the opportunity. Either way, I’d expect it to be a barn burner.
Who is Andre Soukhamthath?
“The Asian Sensation” is a 28-year-old Laotian-American bantamweight and former Blackzilian team member now training at Combat Club under Henri Hooft along with Rashad Evans, Anthony Johnson and many other former Blackzilians. He’ll be making his debut in the UFC with an 11-3 pro-record and his status as the current CES bantamweight champion. He has wins over once-rumored UFC signing Carlos Galindo, as well as Bellator vets Blair Tugman and Kin Moy (the latter avenging an earlier career loss). Of his 11 career wins, only one comes by way of decision. Prior to MMA, Soukhamthath played soccer as a goalie.
What you should expect:
When Soukhamthath’s striking game is clicking he’s an incredibly dangerous fighter. Soukhamthath often works behind a very solid jab, picking his spots to throw more powerful combinations. He’s got great hand-speed and looks like he hits hard. His defensive movement when boxing is reasonably slick, and when he’s focused on finding counters, he does a marvelous job getting just barely out of the way of strikes to fire off a 2 or 3-punch combination in return.
The flip side of this is, that he has a bad habit of shelling up against incoming strikes. When he’s not pulling the trigger on the counter, Soukhamthath often defaults to backing straight up with a high guard and just letting his opponent try to punch around it. He can also be a bit lazy blocking head kicks, trusting that having one hand high on the kicking side will do the defensive work for him. Surprisingly for a former soccer player, he doesn’t seem interested in kicking much at all. Although he will occasionally throw one out if the opportunity arises.
Otherwise, Soukhamthath’s not a bad wrestler, focused mostly on staying upright. He can get caught out being a bit defensively lazy, just like with his stand up, but does well to emphasize getting to his feet quickly. He also does a decent job landing some ground and pound when he can stuff a shot or finding an opening to jump on a submission. But his ground game all seems more a part of an emphasis on transition striking and grappling than any interest in staying on the mat for more than a few seconds.
What this means for his debut:
This should be a firefight. Morales is likely the faster of the two fighters and the more consistently aggressive. But both men hit hard and want to box first and foremost. They also both seem very durable, despite having some real defensive liabilities. I might pick Morales, just because his speed and aggression could catch Soukhamthath out early (especially if he shells up and lets Morales flurry). But, if the fight lasts more than a round, Soukhamthath’s more patient and more technical approach could win out. Soukhamthath throws his hands a lot cleaner and tighter than Morales. It is also worth noting that Morales has an aggressive back take game that he uses really well if he can open the opportunity. Either way, I’d expect it to be a barn burner.
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That's the entire point here - Bektic wasn't very active. He can get a pass in Rd 3 after the knee in Rd 2, but again, the punch is what hurt him first and the knee was illegal only due to him putting his hand. Bektic got a takedown, Skelly gets the back after fishing for a couple subs, Bektic slips out, Skelly lands a punch, another takedown for Bektic. It wasn't very eventful, and the judge who valued the escape to back take and the punch over the takedowns scored it for Skelly. Again, I only looked at two play by plays, and one Sherdog guy gave Rd 3 to Skelly and MMAJunkie mentioned they figured one scorecard would at least give it to Skelly.
The better question here is how in the world can you argue a 30-26 to Bektic giving him Rd 2?! Not sure anyone agrees there.
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