Expert Play #2 Jake Ellenberger +160
Very surprising to see Ellenberger at +160 against Mike Perry, I'm used to seeing Ellenberger as the underdog by now but you have to consider the opponents he's been facing, Masvidal, Brown, Saffedine, Wonderboy, Gastelum, Lawler, Mcdonald. Hard to find a guy at WW that's fought a tougher list of opponents in recent years.
Mike Perry is easy work compared to all those guys, Mike Perry is inexperienced, he's one dimensional, and he's a good style match up for Ellenberger. In the past Ellenberger has typically struggled against technical strikers that fight well at range, Mcdonald, Wonderboy, Saffedine etc. Perry is not a technical striker, he doesn't wanna strike from the outside. Like Ellenberger, Perry prefers to strike at boxing range, Perry will throw combinations and is willing to exchange punches.
I don't think Ellenberger is has done as others think he is. You have to consider that list of named guys he's been fighting, Perry is a massive step down. Ellenberger is most likely fighting for his spot in the company, he'll probably get cut if he loses this one.
I think Perry is going to give Ellenberger the fight he wants, Perry may also get his TDD tested, he hasn't fought a wrestler of Ellenberger's calibre before, Ellenberger hasn't relied on his wrestling in recent years but this could be a good opportunity. Perry did give up two TD's to Jouban.
In the past I think Ellenberger's biggest problem has been his output, this again is related to the kind of strikers he's been facing, it's difficult to let your hands go against a evasive striker like Saffedine compared to an aggressive striker like Perry who likes to come forward.
I'm giving Ellenberger a chance here, he absolutely deserves it. I think he's being underestimated, he's only been losing to the best, not against guys like Mike Perry. Ellenberger has multiple paths to victory, he's got the experience, he's beaten better competition, he's more well rounded, he trains at a better camp (KingsMMA).
Brown, Shields, Martquardt, Sanchez, Pyle, all beaten by Ellenberger
Ellenberger is winning this fight.
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