UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

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luca must have hit masvidal

What da duck. I thought Maia att evens was great, but now he's the dog? I don't even...

This whole Luca things is really changing how we should look at the lines.

really wonder why we haven't seen big line shifts before if he has such a large following

the fact we haven't seen this happen before makes me very suspicious, both JDS and masvidal's lines prior to the big movement had been getting bet for weeks which may contribute to such a sharp drop if a lot of money is placed all at once, also bookies and big punters may be spooked after all the shit about the hardcore porno line(bang-kuntz) last week.
seems more likely to me that he released his pick, and his followers as anticipated bet it, but I don't think that alone would be enough to move it that much considering we have never seen it happen before to this extent.

it's possible he has a syndicate or knowledge of some other big spenders lumping on at the same time and, and all of the above contributed to the big shortenings.
Also it has to be said that we are like 3 weeks out from this fight so the weight of money is a lot more volatile and the lines more susceptible to large movement like this due to the very limited amount of money wagered on mma in the lead up to fights compared with a day or 2 before they actually happen. the only exceptions seem to be huge fights and ofc conor fights.
 
the fact we haven't seen this happen before makes me very suspicious, both JDS and masvidal's lines prior to the big movement had been getting bet for weeks which may contribute to such a sharp drop if a lot of money is placed all at once, also bookies and big punters may be spooked after all the shit about the hardcore porno line(bang-kuntz) last week.
seems more likely to me that he released his pick, and his followers as anticipated bet it, but I don't think that alone would be enough to move it that much considering we have never seen it happen before to this extent.

it's possible he has a syndicate or knowledge of some other big spenders lumping on at the same time and, and all of the above contributed to the big shortenings.
Also it has to be said that we are like 3 weeks out from this fight so the weight of money is a lot more volatile and the lines more susceptible to large movement like this due to the very limited amount of money wagered on mma in the lead up to fights compared with a day or 2 before they actually happen. the only exceptions seem to be huge fights and ofc conor fights.

He said in the morning that he was watching tape on Masvidal and that he was going to place his bet that night.
He places the bet -> Big line movement
He makes his podcast picking JDS and bets JDS -> big line movement

Don't forget what happened in the Duquesnoy - Williams line when he bet Duquesnoy
 
Idk if it's been mentioned but I'm pretty sure those videos of "Michel" are not of him. Maybe i'm wrong but he looks different in them too. Half the videos say "Michael" lol.

I don't see some of those fights on his record either. He actually took a round from Brandon Girtz.

Cheers yeah I thought he looked stranger in the other 2 vids!

Hard to tell half the time I have re-edited the post and just left his 2nd to last fight and training vid up.
 
what a fucing turd lol. did he bet yair and cejudo too? their line are becoming unplayable


maia dog here? this is plain retarded and doesn't make sense at all.
 
also i hope he juices the joanna odds too so i could get andrade at better odds. i really dont see how JJ wins this fight.
 
Confidence increase Andrade! Thanks brother <cheer>


Andrade can of course KO JJ. But JJ has taken heavy shots before and come through pretty well. Andrade for me is WAY too easy to hit. With JJ's striking she will get the DEC for sure with volume and precision. It's like a mens HW fight where the champ just needs to dodge a few of the bombs and stick to the winning game plan.

I'm big on JJ here. Think Andrade has very poor defence and fight IQ....
 
Yeah Masvidal odds are getting ridiculous now. I can't be that confident on him. Yair all the way though
 
Здравствуйте я новичок тут.мне нужны советы основные игроки.)
П.с. Я не элитный игрок.)) Я из Казахстана.GGG.)).
Hello, I'm new here. I need the advice of the main players.)
PS I'm not an elite player.)) I'm from Kazakhstan. GGG.)). Google translator)).
 

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Andrade can of course KO JJ. But JJ has taken heavy shots before and come through pretty well. Andrade for me is WAY too easy to hit. With JJ's striking she will get the DEC for sure with volume and precision. It's like a mens HW fight where the champ just needs to dodge a few of the bombs and stick to the winning game plan.

I'm big on JJ here. Think Andrade has very poor defence and fight IQ....

Poor defence yes but JJ is pillow fisted. Andrade's volume is even higher than JJ's but can she maintain that into rounds 4 and 5? We don't know for sure. JJ hasn't taken heavy shots in MMA Claudia and KK are not big punchers. But both them hurting JJ would concern me if i was backing JJ cos Andrade most definitely hits hard for a woman. Can JJ dodge the bombs tho? We've never really seen her pushed onto the back foot and her background is thai i doubt she has the style to keep circling out. Going by the Claudia and KK fights she seems to thai clinch when pressured as opposed to circling out. That's exactly where Andrade wants to be up close and personal.
 
I’ve put together some stats for the Maia – Masvidal fight. Out of all of the fights on the card this is the fight that interests me the most. Looking at the stats we can see that they have both fought roughly the same amount of minutes in their last 5 fights showing that they are durable enough to go the distance as well as getting the finish early. One key thing that stuck out for me is that Maia has had 226 less significant strikes against him showing that Masvidal has gone to war a few times whilst Maia has been using his key tactic of going to the ground.

Important to know that Masvidal has been taken down about 35% of the attempts in his last 5 fights, whilst Maia has been successful in around 35% of his take downs. Masvidals last few fights there have been 2 take down attempts against him which have not been successful in a total of 10 mins and these fights have ended in a KO by Masvidal.

I am still yet to watch tape on both fighters but from the stats I have put together I am leaning towards Maia, I feel he will be able to work his way on to the ground as Masvidal hasn’t had much exposure to TD’s in a while.
 

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And Stephens last fight was a loss to an unranked brazillian. He almost finished frankie so that's not a good argument for frankie imo

That's a big reach, imo.

Stephens lost a decision he should've won... To a guy that is nothing like Edgar... After he lost to Edgar... But he hurt him at one point... So that means Edgar will lose to yair?
 
im suprised that so many of you are discounting Joanna and think shes overrated. im not saying shes a lock to win or anything but shes def not overrated and I find it hard to believe she will lose if this gets to decision. Andrade is a good striker and can obviously finish her early but in my opinion Joanna wins this with her striking and excellent cardio.
 
i think cejudo is going to have trouble overcoming the 2 inch height advantage and 5 inch reach advantage of pettis. pettis has a good jab and manages range well.

cejudo is obviously the better wrestler but pettis is working on that aspect of his game. i think this fight shoudl be a pick 'em at worse, i actually slightly favour pettis.

I would normally agree but Serg is a terrible wrestler. I love the Pettis' and am even acquaintances with them but wrestling is a serious problem for them.
 
^^ I don't really buy the JJ has a bad chin argument. I mean this is fighting you are going to get rocked sometimes. Its not like she got put to sleep. JJ completely dominated KK the whole fight and sure she got caught towards the end but bounced back and won the fight. Similar to what we saw Saturday, Cub owned the majority of the fight and got caught toward the end. This is fighting its gonna happen but I don't think Cub has a bad chin now...

Honestly at this weight class I am not that concerned about a clean ko. It is more a matter of how you react when you get rocked and in JJ's case she always does a good job of recovering and staying in the game.

This. Anyone who fights is going to get rocked at some point. It's how you take it.

I know even sparring in my gym I get rocked but if you know how to handle it and don't panic you'll be fine. JJ is always game and she has fought and beaten world class strikers. I expect her to use her #elite heart and striking to win this one. I know I am in the minority though.
 
Still plenty more footage to watch and rewatch but current early opinions....

Benitez - Super confident, massive leg kicks to set up high kicks. Chance of a submission if he stuns Barzola on the feet like the Sicilia fight. Hopefully playable odds on Benitez ITD.

James Vick - Far more polished overall, cleaner striker. Think he can win the fight anywhere, can see him grabbing a neck at some point and getting another guillotine or D'arce.

Jotko - Better overall fighter and keeps improving, has the defensive grappling to keep it on the feet and win it there. Even if he does get taken down he has superb submission defence and positional ability. Probably takes a decision.

Skelly - Great exciting match up, one of the closest fights. I've counted Knight out before and it's come back to bite me but I'm going to side with Skelly here. He had the wrestling to interrupt Knight's forward pressure barrage of strikes, previous opponents without that offensive wrestling ability have found themselves drawn into a brawl. There is a worry that Knight's relentless pressure and constant sub attempts cause Skelly to gas and he takes advantage. I only give Skelly the slight advantage and may very well likely stay clear of either and play the over.

Poirier - Depends how Alvarez looks after McGregor. Poirier has decent boxing, dirty boxing and could stun Alvarez. Plus he has solid TDD, wouldn't count Alvarez out by any means but I like Poirier here.


Cejudo - Controls his way to a decision. Pettis has an active sweep and sub game but won't be enough once he's on his back, doubt he can keep it standing long enough to make it count. Poor odds for Cejudo, might play his decision line instead but can't imagine it'll be too appealing either.

Rodriguez - Frankie is aging, albeit still good. Rodriguez is the next big thing. Edgar got caught clean by a Stephens kick and I see Rodriguez landing heavy kicks and finishing him, love his ML, will definitely play it.

Maia - Love Masvidal, been a fan since Bodog, picked him to beat Cerrone. But Maia will secure bodylock takedowns and control him. Masvidal has the clear advantage on the feet and is crafty on the mat too with good scrambling ability. Maia is next level though, his chain wrestling is fantastic and I see Maia tangling him up and subbing him late in the 2nd or 3rd.

Jedrezejczyk - Takes a decision, maybe caught a few times along the way. She's the far more polished striker, good TDD and tested over 5 rounds. Andrade dominated Hill and didn't look gassed despite her high output but this isn't Angela Hill, Andrade is a solid fighter but I just don't see her winning.

JDS - Probably plays out similar to the first fight, he has great recovery but I wouldn't be shocked if Miocic got put away by JDS. He has more power in punches and Miocic will struggle to secure takedowns on him.

Nice breakdown. I agree with all of these but JDS and at current odds I'm taking Stipe.
 
im suprised that so many of you are discounting Joanna and think shes overrated. im not saying shes a lock to win or anything but shes def not overrated and I find it hard to believe she will lose if this gets to decision. Andrade is a good striker and can obviously finish her early but in my opinion Joanna wins this with her striking and excellent cardio.

JJ is defo not overrated. I'm on Andrade partly because i think the line is off and this should be a pick 'em not because i think JJ is overrarated. I think a decision loss is very possible tho. If Andrade can maintain her pace for 5 rounds it most definitely is, and if Andrade wins the first three rounds and we know she can set a ridiculous pace for 3 rounds, she could win a 48-47.

I don't think we can completely rule out a chin issue either. KK and Claudia are not big punchers especially KK, and she had JJ hurt worse than Claudia. She's been hurt/knocked down three times in her last two fights. I assume she had a long thai career with a lot of fights, so it's definitely possible that all those fights along with her MMA fights combined could be catching up with her. I'm definitely not betting on Andrade tho cos i feel JJ chin is cracked.
 
JJ is defo not overrated. I'm on Andrade partly because i think the line is off and this should be a pick 'em not because i think JJ is overrarated. I think a decision loss is very possible tho. If Andrade can maintain her pace for 5 rounds it most definitely is, and if Andrade wins the first three rounds and we know she can set a ridiculous pace for 3 rounds, she could win a 48-47.

I don't think we can completely rule out a chin issue either. KK and Claudia are not big punchers especially KK, and she had JJ hurt worse than Claudia. She's been hurt/knocked down three times in her last two fights. I assume she had a long thai career with a lot of fights, so it's definitely possible that all those fights along with her MMA fights combined could be catching up with her. I'm definitely not betting on Andrade tho cos i feel JJ chin is cracked.

fair enough and the odds keep dropping on this fight. JJ is now -155 on 5 dimes yet her decision prop is now down to +122 from +153.
 
anyone looking at stipe in round 1 at +425? his last 3 fights were round 1 knockout wins. Worth a shot at those odds.
 
Wonder if I'm being too greedy waiting for Frankie and JJ's lines to get even better
 
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