Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

"After several days in a row watching his star Kentucky Derby candidate fight his exercise rider all the way around the Churchill Downs oval, trainer Todd Pletcher has decided he has to change things up if he wants Always Dreaming to relax enough to stand a chance on Saturday...."

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/...ssive-always-dreaming-rider-equipment-change/


I wonder if all the twitter twerps that were wrongfully raving about his workout a couple of days ago still have those same thoughts now that the horse's over aggressiveness is making the trainer a little desperate in trying to get him to relax?

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

Yep.

 

[Sharkey]

Meh. Not sure I liked what Classic Empire was showing this morning. Looked a little dull to me with the way he was galloping and maybe even uncomfortable.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

I don't know if I'm reading too much into this because of the hoof issues he had a couple of months ago and then the way he switched leads in the stretch of his last race. But I'm concerned with the way Classic Empire finished up his gallop this morning in the 26:00 to 27:00 portion of the following video. He doesn't look comfortable to me at all. Like something is bothering him in one of his front hoofs. At at the 26:50 mark he also raised his left hoof up a couple of times and it looked like he was almost doing it gingerly like it was bothering him some.

 

[Sharkey]

Lookin At Lee: 85, 88.5, 92.5 (101) * ?, ?, ? (?, ?, ?) * 3rd last race * 24.1 ft * 6/5

Without even knowing what his thorograph numbers are yet (and he should check in at least one category there, whether it be pattern or a new top last out...maybe both), Lee already checks the box in at least five categories. Maintain or improve his combined BSF/BRIS number. Best BSF/BRIS came in last race at 9F. Late pace number of 95 or greater. A stride length at the end of the race of at least 23.5 feet. And a 6/5 on the 'preparedness' factor.

I finally got to see Lookin At Lee's thorograph sheet;

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/looki.pdf

...which means his profile line will look like so;

Lookin At Lee: 85, 88.5, 92.5 (101) * 7, 6, 3 1/4 (P, P, T) * 3rd last race * 24.1 ft * 6/5

That means he'll be checking in 7 of our categories. Hence is the only one who checks in more with that one having 8 to the good. Practical Joke also checks in 7 as well.

Just waiting on Sonneteer's thorogragh sheet and then that's it.

 

[Sharkey]

- A combined BSF/BRIS figure in their final 9F prep of 95 or greater
- A maintain or improve pattern to their combined BSF/BRIS figure over the last 3 races going into the Derby (less than 4 pt drop in either of their last two races)
- Best combined BSF/BRIS came in their last prep at 9F
- Brisnet late pace figure of at least 95 in their final prep at 9F
- Running a new top (T) thorograph figure in their final prep but not drastically so
- Having one of the four positive thorograph patterns over their last two prep races (P, T), (P, P), (T, T) or (T, P)
- Finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep with 1st being preferred
- Showed a stride length of at least 23.5 feet at the end of their final prep race at 9F
- Have at least a 6 count when combining races that are over a mile in length and that featured 10+ field sizes, or at least 3 races at over a mile with 2 races with 10+ field sizes

Always Dreaming (4): 87, 77.5, 99.5 (99) * 9 1/4, 9 1/4, -0 1/2 (X, X, T) * 1st last race * 22.4 feet * 3/1
Girvin (5): 86.5, 95.5, 95 (96) * 9 1/2, 4 3/4, 4 3/4 (X, P, P) * 1st last race * 22.9 feet * 2/2
Gunnevera (3): 94, 99.5, 91.5 (102) * 3 1/4, -2 1/2, 3 1/4 (P, T, X) * 3rd last race * ??? (+) * 5/4
Hence (8): 80.5, 83.5, 100 (93) * 9 3/4, 7, 3 (P, T, T) * 1st last race * 24.3 feet * 4/5
McCraken (2): 89.5, 97, 92 (90) * 5, 2, 2 (P, T, P) * 3rd last race * 22.2 feet * 3/2
Irish War Cry (4): 99.5, 69.5, 101.5 (80) * 1 1/4, 10 1/4, -2 3/4 (T, X, T) * 1st last race * 22.1 feet * 3/2
Gormley (2): 97, 90.5, 93.5 (77) * 1, 5 1/4, 4 (T, X, O) * 1st last race * 22.5 feet * 4/3
Battle of Midway (4): 83, 88, 93 (71) * 6, 5 1/4, 5 1/4 (P, P, P) * 2nd last race * 22.0 feet * 2/1
Practical Joke (7): 94, 91.5, 95.5 (93) * 3 1/2, 1 , -0 1/2 (P, T, T) * 2nd last race * 21.7 feet * 3/3
J Boys Echo (1): 88.5, 103, 88.5 (87) * 5 1/4, 1 1/4, 4 (T, T, O) * 4th last race * ??? (-) * 5/4
Tapwrit (2): 95, 98.5, 81.5 (76) * 4, 1 1/2, 4 3/4 (P, T, O) * 5th last race * ??? (-) * 3/2
Irap (5): 79.5, 86, 96.5 (92) * 10, 7 1/2, 0 1/4 (O, P, T...giant new top) * 1st * 22.1 feet * 6/2
Patch (2): 72, 95, 93.5 (94) * 12 3/4, 3, 7 1/2 (T, T, X) * 2nd last race * 22.3 feet * 1/2
State of Honor (4): 94.5, 96, 93.5 (92) * 4, 4 3/4, 4 (P, P, P) * 2nd last race * 22.0 feet * 5/5
Classic Empire (5): 105, 86.5, 95 (97) * 0, 4 1/2, 2 1/2 (T, X, O) * 1st last race * 24.3 ft * 4/3
Lookin At Lee (7): 85, 88.5, 92.5 (107) * 7, 6, 3 1/4 (P, P, T) * 3rd last race * 24.1 ft * 6/5
Fast and Accurate (5): 74.5, 81, 84 (65) * 12 1/2, 10 3/4, 8 (T, T, T) * 1st last race * 21.5 ft * 1/1
Untrapped (2): 93.5, 91, 88 (84) * 4 3/4, 4 3/4, 4 3/4 (P, P, P) * 6th last race * ??? (-) * 4/5
Royal Mo (2): 94.5, 77, 92.5 (70) * 6 1/4, 8, 4 (T, O, T) * 3rd last race * 22.9 feet * 3/3
------------------
Sonneteer: 82.5, 91, 92.5 (109) * ?, ?, ? (?, ?, ?) * 4th last race * 24.4 feet * 5/2
Thunder Snow: ??, ??, ??, (??) * 6, 3 1/4, 3 (T, T, P) * 1st last race * 23.3 ft * 1/3


That should be the full 20 horse field for this year's Derby and then with Royal Mo included too as he's next in line to draw in should one of the others have to scratch for whatever reason. I can't do Thunder Snow's BSF/BRIS numbers since they don't do numbers for overseas races and I wouldn't even want to guess too much with them. Still waiting for Sonneteer's thorograph numbers to appear on TDN, but I'm about 95% positive he'll be going into the race on a nice T, T pattern based on what his competitors got in those races, and if so, he'll be only one of four horses who check in at least 7 categories (Hence 8, Lookin At Lee 7, and Practical Joke 7 are the other three). I also had to guess with a few of these guy's stride length just because they weren't on the screen enough at the end of their last race. I gave Gunnevera a plus in that regard since he has always shown good stride length before and was finishing well at the end of his last race, and he's the only one of the four I gave it too for different reasons (Tapwrit was finishing poorly in last race despite showing stride length in other races, and J Boys Echo & Untrapped finished poorly, plus those two have never shown that length even in their best races).

What all this stuff means and how it impacts the winner and other top finishers in the Derby can be found over the last 10 pages or so of this thread (page 53, 55, etc). Forgive me for not typing all that stuff out again. But hopefully some of this stuff can be useful in helping us cash a ticket or two on Saturday.

 

[Sharkey]

If the track does come up wet on Saturday like it looks like it may, horses like Hence, Lookin At Lee, and Sonneteer have already proven able to handle it and are also bred for it as well. Hence broke his maiden over a wet track and did so impressively in earning his best figure at that point in time. He also has a one of the higher Tomlinson wet ratings in the field at 398. Lookin At Lee also has a good race over a wet track when he finished 2nd last year in the mud at Churchill Downs in a G3 race, and he also has a high Tomlinson wet rating of 391. Sonneteer finished a fast closing 2nd on an off track last fall when he gained 6 lengths on Royal Mo (who set slow/average early fractions) in the stretch, which ended up being Sonneteer's highest rated race of his first 8 during his career. His Tomlinson wet rating is also good at 380. The other horse I'm interested in using some, Practical Joke, doesn't have any off track experience yet, but does have a very high Tomlinson wet rating of 413, so he's at least bred to handle it.

 

[Sharkey]

"Trainer Mark Casse said on Sunday that Classic Empire has been wearing glue-on shoes since he was re-shod after recovering from a hoof abscess in early February. Classic Empire made his 3-year-old debut Feb. 4, finishing third in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The abscess was detected two days later, Casse said, when Classic Empire came up lame.

Glue-on shoes are fairly commonly used on horses that experience certain types of foot problems. Obviously, not driving nails into a sensitive or injured foot can be a good thing. Classic Empire won the Arkansas Derby, his second start in 2017, racing in glue-ons."

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/36438

I don't know if this is necessarily a negative that Classic Empire is wearing them, but it's certainly not a positive. With his hoof problems a couple months ago, his late lead change at the end of his last race (possibly indicating a sore foot), what I saw from his gallop yesterday morning, and then this news from above here, I think I have no choice but to completely pass on this guy in the Derby and not use him at all. I'll be okay with that too even if his feet were 100% considering he has some other things with him that are hard to trust at a short price.

I'm back down to four again, who'll all profile very well, who are all looking quite happy and healthy out there during their pre-race training, and who are all going to be really nice prices.

 

[Sharkey]

1st - Hence
2nd - Lookin At Lee
3rd - Sonneteer
4th - Practical Joke

Let's straight super this son of a bitch.

 

[timmyclax22]

1st - Hence
2nd - Lookin At Lee
3rd - Sonneteer
4th - Practical Joke

Let's straight super this son of a bitch.

You are single handedly getting me jacked up for the Derby! Appreciate all the hard work.

 

[Sharkey]

You are single handedly getting me jacked up for the Derby! Appreciate all the hard work.

My pleasure, Timmy. Hopefully some of this stuff can be useful to you come Saturday. It's kinda been a quiet week for me, though, since almost all my prep work was done already. Just been watching the workouts the last couple of weeks looking for signs that the horses I'm interested in are ready to run a good race. Or, as in the case with Girvin and Classic Empire, some signs that are more negative in nature that would cause me to get off a horse. The post draw is tomorrow and that's basically the last little piece of info that we'll need.

 

[Sharkey]

I've already accepted the likelihood that I'm going to be wrong in the Derby just because my opinion is going to be pretty narrow for the race when it comes to exotic wagers. But if I'm right, well shit, then I'm going to be right in a huge way and could be looking at a 5 or even 6 figure payout. Even though my chances of being right in the exotics are slim, I also feel that my chances of being right are much, much better than what the odds on the horses I use are going to indicate.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

And a few thoughts from the guys at DRF in regards to Always Dreaming;

 

[t6p]

Looks like Hence is getting some love from the public. Current Derby winner odds on 5dimes for the horses @Sharkey is looking to play:

Hence +1500
Practical Joke +1600
Looking at Lee +2500
Sonneteer +3000

 

[Sharkey]

The post positions and morning line odds for the Derby;

 

[Sharkey]

Looks like Hence is getting some love from the public. Current Derby winner odds on 5dimes for the horses @Sharkey is looking to play:

Hence +1500
Practical Joke +1600
Looking at Lee +2500
Sonneteer +3000

Yeah, it looks like you guys who got on him early are going to be getting some great value with the line you got with Hence. His stock has risen a lot the last few weeks with the way he's looked out there on the track in training and a lot of sharp people are going to be on that one. And some dumb ones will be on him too. Like me.

Besides your Hence bet, who are you liking, T?

 

[t6p]

Yeah, it looks like you guys who got on him early are going to be getting some great value with the line you got with Hence. His stock has risen a lot the last few weeks with the way he's looked out there on the track in training and a lot of sharp people are going to be on that one. And some dumb ones will be on him too. Like me.

Besides your Hence bet, who are you liking, T?

Honestly Shark, based on all the info/videos you've been posting it's hard not to really like Hence. I'm kind of regretting not putting at least a full unit down on him to win when he was at +2500.

As for other horses, I'm interested in seeing the numbers on Sonneteer when they become available and hearing your final thoughts. I'll most certainly be playing some combination of the 4 horses you've narrowed it down to in exactas, tris, maybe even a super. I'm pumped for Saturday, that's for sure.