UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part III

[Antagonist88]

adding more to branch +140. this line is just off. it is. i actually cap branch as a small favorite here. but even if it's a coinflip, +140 is very solid value.

this is gonna have a LOT of clinching, and i think branch is the stronger dude. this fight means more to him than it does to jotko. i try to avoid mental drive (who wants it more etc) but i think it's gotta be true here. it could add some unnecessary(unfavorable) pressure to branch, but i think this is almost like a titleshot for branch.. it's a validation fight that the years he's done great outside of the UFC were proof of something.

idk. that might be a reach. i get that.

i still say +140 is a darn good play. no way jotko deserves to be this big of a favorite.

I don't know man. To fuel narrative, Jotko lives and breathes fighting and wants to be champion. And Branch is stronger, but Jotko is crafty in the clinch and has good scrambles like we saw against Leites.

Personally, I cap Jotko as a bigger favorite than he is currently. Also, personally hope I'm right.

 

[ill800]

Jj gave Andrade a paper belt that said "fantasy" on it

lol she's better at trolling than most of the guys around here

 

[Rebel_LioN]

@Rebel_LioN if You dont give picks than could you give some more advice about parlays? How much maximum You bet fights on one parlay?

I never said I don't give out picks. I just haven't been in here lately.

If you need to ask for advice about parlays, then chances are you probably should stick to single plays. That's the fundamental thing to do.

If I feel confident in an 8 man play I'll pull the trigger. If I can only pick out 2 from the roster then it'll be just 2.

Every card, every fight, every Saturday is a new day. There is no set scheme or system to stick by.

The reason personally why I do such crazy legged parlays is because of limits on 5dimes.

 

[null]

Has anyone figured out what rules they are using tomorrow? I'm watching the weigh-in show on DVR hoping that they mention it.

 

[mkess101]

I don't know man. To fuel narrative, Jotko lives and breathes fighting and wants to be champion. And Branch is stronger, but Jotko is crafty in the clinch and has good scrambles like we saw against Leites.

Personally, I cap Jotko as a bigger favorite than he is currently. Also, personally hope I'm right.

h

Jotko's scrambling is better than good honestly. He scrambles like the guys in lower weight classes. I mentioned it way way back. I tend to think the line now is probably about right. I favor Jotko, though not by a huge margin. But I am fully on board with you that his ability to scramble likely is the difference in this fight. The main takeaway is how well he scrambled and turned bad spots into good ones vs a top tier grappler like Leites, including BEFORE Leites got tired. That speaks volumes, because most MW's have no prayer of doing that. It's simply a feel for exactly how and when to move in certain spots and having your body do it as second nature. It's what the best grapplers on the planet have, and Jotko was just insanely impressive with it in that fight. Should have opened a lot of eyes.

 

[EzFlyer]

h

Jotko's scrambling is better than good honestly. He scrambles like the guys in lower weight classes. I mentioned it way way back. I tend to think the line now is probably about right. I favor Jotko, though not by a huge margin. But I am fully on board with you that his ability to scramble likely is the difference in this fight. The main takeaway is how well he scrambled and turned bad spots into good ones vs a top tier grappler like Leites, including BEFORE Leites got tired. That speaks volumes, because most MW's have no prayer of doing that. It's simply a feel for exactly how and when to move in certain spots and having your body do it as second nature. It's what the best grapplers on the planet have, and Jotko was just insanely impressive with it in that fight. Should have opened a lot of eyes.

leites was out of shape and gassed like mad

i like jotko in general. i do. he's CLEARLY improved since his early ufc fights. no doubt.

but branch is damned solid everywhere and again, i think he'll win the clinch. stronger dude, better ground game, and i honestly think he can box just fine w/jotko

 

[MMA Goodfella]

adding more to branch +140. this line is just off. it is. i actually cap branch as a small favorite here. but even if it's a coinflip, +140 is very solid value.

this is gonna have a LOT of clinching, and i think branch is the stronger dude. this fight means more to him than it does to jotko. i try to avoid mental drive (who wants it more etc) but i think it's gotta be true here. it could add some unnecessary(unfavorable) pressure to branch, but i think this is almost like a titleshot for branch.. it's a validation fight that the years he's done great outside of the UFC were proof of something.

idk. that might be a reach. i get that.

i still say +140 is a darn good play. no way jotko deserves to be this big of a favorite.

I was getting ready to say the same thing. After a bit of tape watching, I do believe that David branch can make this an ugly grinding fight that he loves and potentially have the same success that Magnus Cedenblad had vs. Jotko. In fact, the Swede is very similar in style to David branch and this is going to be The strongest guy that Jotko has fart face sense Magnus. What's more, Branch is In that Dan Henderson/Rich Franklin molecular a tweener who can successfully compete at both 185 and 205 because of his strength and physicality. I would be surprised if jotko is able to toss Branch around like he did Leites and DB has really good boxing. Just to give an indication of how strong DB ies, he won in the FIRST round against Rumble in Titan FC at 185 pounds and was shucking Rumble off like he was a gnat. If he was doing this in round three it would be one thing ...but to do it in the first is pretty special.

I think this fight is even at best upon second review. Potentially DB favorite -115

 

[Oblivian]

leites was out of shape and gassed like mad

i like jotko in general. i do. he's CLEARLY improved since his early ufc fights. no doubt.

but branch is damned solid everywhere and again, i think he'll win the clinch. stronger dude, better ground game, and i honestly think he can box just fine w/jotko

I feel pretty comfortable with the +3.5 on Branch. If Jotko wins, I think it's very likely to be 29-28 or a split.

 

[Oblivian]

Yea O .. I LOVE Knight aka Hick Diaz aka "The Baddest Man on the Bayou" lol ... Buuuuut I'm playing Skelly 2u IIRC

HYG synopsis Skelly / Knight

Spoiler

Gritty, grimy Knight.... 24-year-old is a essentially Muay-Thai styled striker with a terrific Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game and a fantastic guard.

Perpetually on his front foot, Knight is always throwing numbers with his hands and is an equal opportunity offender when it comes to targeting the anatomy. ..loves throwing a lot of oblique kicks. He doesn't possess big power ..is content to pile up singles, doubles, and triples

..best asset is his rubber guard. .. very flexible and can tie you up up like a pretzel.

Skelly ... hometown fighter ... superb on the mats in high school with an overall record of 164-3 ... .. a NAIA All-American for Oklahoma City University.

..worked years with grappling guru Marc Laimon .. sound technical abilitie are augmented by his advantageous physical features. .. 5'11" and inordinately long 73 inch reach..

... previously trained with amateur wrestling legend Kenny Monday, now with three time NCAA D-1 wrestling champion Greg Jones. ..grappling instructor with UFC fighter and BJJ ace Gilbert Burns.

.. has made the biggest strides is in is striking. Under renowned Dutch kickboxing master Henri Hooft.

..training at Combat Club .. access to top level sparring partners ..Robbie Lawler and Sean Soriano in particular + Kamaru Usman and Michael Johnson ..

..the one area that separates them is the wrestling. .. Skelly excellent TDs + Knight poor TDD ... tries to use guard when he should scramble to feeet.

Very unlikely that you are going to submit Skelly from his back. ...

If Knight can force Skelly to routinely work for the TD he can have success late ..superior cardio. ...
Skelly says he has a new nutritionist. New S & C coach..Used to do everything himself..now just trains and is pampered..feels better than ever..

...I think the over 2.5 is the most likely outcome of this contest.

Prediction: Skelly by unanimous decision

Thanks for the input. I'm on Knight though, I was just curious on your thoughts. I honestly feel Skelly has something wrong with him in regards to cardio - similar to lil' Ellenberger.

 

[mkess101]

leites was out of shape and gassed like mad

i like jotko in general. i do. he's CLEARLY improved since his early ufc fights. no doubt.

but branch is damned solid everywhere and again, i think he'll win the clinch. stronger dude, better ground game, and i honestly think he can box just fine w/jotko

But Leites was getting outgrappled literally from the start. I realize midway through round 2 on really didn't mean a lot because it was obvious how tired Leites was. But even a couple minutes into the fight Jotko was getting the better of the scrambles. And if you'd have told me that prior to that fight, I'd have laughed my ass off at you.

I think Branch is solid everywhere too. I agree actually. But so is Jotko, and I think the tiebreaker is that he's the better scrambler.

Don't get me wrong, I don't really like him at this price (don't like Branch either though--I think it's priced correctly). But I got Jotko at evens and THAT is a line I was happy to play him at.

 

[mkess101]

I feel pretty comfortable with the +3.5 on Branch. If Jotko wins, I think it's very likely to be 29-28 or a split.

I can buy that but -215 is maybe a LITTLE pricey. Would really like it at -175 or so. But yeah, it should be a close fight so hard to argue with taking the +3.5.

 

[Oblivian]

Budden is yellow again?

I can buy that but -215 is maybe a LITTLE pricey. Would really like it at -175 or so. But yeah, it should be a close fight so hard to argue with taking the +3.5.

I was debating on taking Branch straight, but man, I really think Jotko's chances at a very clear victory aren't that high. Branch gets critiqued for not finishing guys that he should, but he doesn't drop many rounds.

 

[mkess101]

Budden is yellow again?



I was debating on taking Branch straight, but man, I really think Jotko's chances at a very clear victory aren't that high. Branch gets critiqued for not finishing guys that he should, but he doesn't drop many rounds.

Yeah I don't know if I've ever seen Branch dominated, good point. That said, the way Jotko looks to be improving, he's a solid step up in competition from who Branch has faced lately. Oddly, this is maybe one of the more intriguing fights on a pretty stacked card.

And since we are taking my wife away for the weekend for mother's day and leaving tomorrow morning, I won't be watching this one. Bummer, but gotta have priorities right?

 

[Oblivian]

Yeah I don't know if I've ever seen Branch dominated, good point. That said, the way Jotko looks to be improving, he's a solid step up in competition from who Branch has faced lately. Oddly, this is maybe one of the more intriguing fights on a pretty stacked card.

And since we are taking my wife away for the weekend for mother's day and leaving tomorrow morning, I won't be watching this one. Bummer, but gotta have priorities right?

My wife is out of town with my daughter. Me and my son, bacheloring it up. Are you at least taping it?

 

[mkess101]

My wife is out of town with my daughter. Me and my son, bacheloring it up. Are you at least taping it?

Yeah I'll record it and probably watch Sunday night. The bitch of it is I fly out super early Monday morning to Cali for work, so I'll have to try to start watching at a somewhat reasonable hour. I guess the good news is that with it being recorded I can ff through like half the telecast.

 

[Card]

 

[timmyclax22]

Almost everyone is on Andrade that posted bets. Yikes.

I like her too haha.

 

[piglord]

Almost everyone is on Andrade that posted bets. Yikes.

I like her too haha.

hell yeah, i'm probably going to add to her if i'm having a good night.

 

[LEMONZEST]

It's hard man. Seems 80% of the posters now are just copying what Brown and Buddens made funny. And they actually still contribute.

I actually had a huge event last time out. HUGE! But didn't even post in here much thoughts

Most of the loud voices are try hards. This is my only place to talk mma and get input so i really appreciate the likes of you ez jimgunn jae gibbz JB and other regs that provide meaningful input.

Lets just try and keep it real.

 

[WetBlanket]

Why has the Benitez vs Bazola line moved so much?