UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

[Wiktoruspro]

I'd be more confident in Cub than Merab and with better odds

Naah no way.. first of all
Ortega is undefeated
Ortega is improving
Cub sucked against Lobov

 

[MacPherson911]

From what I see the whole forum is on :
Liz Carmouche
Holtzman

what do You think of Merab Dvalishvili ??

Hyped prospect from a reality show coming off a 15 sec KO going up against a hard nosed veteran wrestler at + money. I know who I’m trusting w my 1u.

 

[rev0lver]

Naah no way.. first of all
Ortega is undefeated
Ortega is improving
Cub sucked against Lobov

Undefeated fighters eventually get defeated when they start stepping up in comp. Ortega was arguably losing to Moicano, Brandao, and Guida before his rd 3 comeback finishes. It's impressive that he's been able to do that but it won't always happen.

Cub is a step higher than Ortega's previous opponents, and he's coming to make a statement with his disappointment in his UFC contract and status. Don't forget that Cub has ONLY lost to top 5 ranked fw's in the past 10 years.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I'd be more confident in Cub than Merab and with better odds

It's the riskiest of the list imo. Didn't I also tell you Cowboy Oliveira may be too risky lol (unless that was someone else)

You didnt hehe but I think 95% people betting this event on EARTH lost money on cowboy

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I'd be more confident in Cub than Merab and with better odds

It's the riskiest of the list imo. Didn't I also tell you Cowboy Oliveira may be too risky lol (unless that was someone else)

Yeah it was super obvious that Cowboy would break his nose, not be able to breathe, gas hard, and Yancy would survive the onslaught of domination that ensued where it looked like he was going to get finished by a depleted Cowboy on multiple occasions.

I mean come on. If that re-match happened Cowboy would kick Yancy's ass at least 80% of the time. Wouldn't be bragging about that call if I were you.

 

[rev0lver]

Yeah it was super obvious that Cowboy would break his nose, not be able to breathe, gas hard, and Yancy would survive the onslaught of domination that ensued where it looked like he was going to get finished by a depleted Cowboy on multiple occasions.

I mean come on. If that re-match happened Cowboy would kick Yancy's ass at least 80% of the time. Wouldn't be bragging about that call if I were you.

I was calling a -240 fighter who fights wild and puts himself in danger a risky bet in a multi-hundred dollar parlay, especially against a tough opponent with a lot of finishes. I still thought he'd probably win

 

[raketmannen]

Yeah it was super obvious that Cowboy would break his nose, not be able to breathe, gas hard, and Yancy would survive the onslaught of domination that ensued where it looked like he was going to get finished by a depleted Cowboy on multiple occasions.

I mean come on. If that re-match happened Cowboy would kick Yancy's ass at least 80% of the time. Wouldn't be bragging about that call if I were you.

Cowboy usually slows down though? And Yancy came on strong in the third against Trinaldo after nearly getting killed. It was not as farfetched as you make it seem...

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I was calling a -240 fighter who fights wild and puts himself in danger a risky bet in a multi-hundred dollar parlay, especially against a tough opponent with a lot of finishes. I still thought he'd probably win

Every bet is risky, that's why it's called gambling. To my eye this looked like a -500 bet that happened to have a bunch of shit go wrong and lose. I lost way more than a few hundred dollars on it, and I nevertheless believe it was a decidedly good risk.

Cowboy usually slows down though? And Yancy came on strong in the third against Trinaldo after nearly getting killed. It was not as farfetched as you make it seem...

Cowboy has finished his prior 3 opponents in rounds 2 or 3 and he had NOTHING in rd 2 vs Medeiros. He went extra hard for fast finish after getting hurt, and broken nose makes it hard to breathe.

Some people scored round 3 vs Yancy 10-8 or even 10-7 for Trinaldo, so I must have missed the part where he came on strong.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Cub gonna wreck it, seriously, no break down or analysis required at -110. nom nom.

2.2u @1.90

 

[rev0lver]

Every bet is risky, that's why it's called gambling. To my eye this looked like a -500 bet that happened to have a bunch of shit go wrong and lose. I lost way more than a few hundred dollars on it, and I nevertheless believe it was a decidedly good risk.

I thought the other bets were fine actually (iirc something like Teymur, Alhassan, Cejudo and Torres). I felt confident about all of those. Cowboy was the riskiest because of the way he fights. I passed on it personally. I'd rather bet Cowboy when he's the dog like before.

I thought Andrew Sanchez was a safe favorite bet on the TUF finale though. You can't predict big upsets like that. But like I said, I thought Cowboy would win, but I wouldn't want to bet on him as a favorite the way he fights. His losses aren't really that long ago, especially if you take into account his first performance against Means. Cowboy can beat anyone but a lot of fighters can beat him, and Yancy wasn't some glass-chinned jobber coming in. Even if Cowboy had won I'd feel I made the right decision in passing on it

 

[EzFlyer]

man they opened the lines at such weird times this week, fml. and props already, too

missed knight sub +4xx, grrrrrr.

taking some maluko NSC +266 for sure.

took alexis davis +160 as well. better striker for sure, no slouch on the mat.. think carmouche needs td's and even if she gets 'em it's not a cakewalk. don't get this line at all. think it should be a pick'em

 

[Sham5916910]

man they opened the lines at such weird times this week, fml. and props already, too

missed knight sub +4xx, grrrrrr.

taking some maluko NSC +266 for sure.

took alexis davis +160 as well. better striker for sure, no slouch on the mat.. think carmouche needs td's and even if she gets 'em it's not a cakewalk. don't get this line at all. think it should be a pick'em

Agree re Davis but she doesnt look the same post baby which is scaring me off and im not sure how she makes 125. Shes physically strong than liz that was very evident in their first where liz very oddly attempted no td's despite being soundly outstruck

 

[EzFlyer]

Liz urijahs just like her male clone. It's a verb.

Urijah: verb: to stand there getting outstruck and not realize you're getting outstruck, whilst neglecting potential grappling advantages

 

[SBJJ]

I'm gonna wait. But Davis is gonna get my bet

 

[turbozed]

Naah no way.. first of all
Ortega is undefeated
Ortega is improving
Cub sucked against Lobov

How much money did you lose on Niko Price against Luque ?

 

[BatBoyJG]

Frankie Saenz by decision +240

 

[EzFlyer]

Frankie Saenz by decision +240

good spot. took it, too

 

[Gugabe]

I thought the other bets were fine actually (iirc something like Teymur, Alhassan, Cejudo and Torres). I felt confident about all of those. Cowboy was the riskiest because of the way he fights. I passed on it personally. I'd rather bet Cowboy when he's the dog like before.

I thought Andrew Sanchez was a safe favorite bet on the TUF finale though. You can't predict big upsets like that. But like I said, I thought Cowboy would win, but I wouldn't want to bet on him as a favorite the way he fights. His losses aren't really that long ago, especially if you take into account his first performance against Means. Cowboy can beat anyone but a lot of fighters can beat him, and Yancy wasn't some glass-chinned jobber coming in. Even if Cowboy had won I'd feel I made the right decision in passing on it

Both of those fights could, would and should have been stopped with the favorite winning by TKO in the first if the ref was a bit more diligent. Bad beats, IMO.

Ortega's massively outkicked his coverage and I don't think he'll stay in the FW top 15. His only good win was the comeback against Moicano, who I'm not even convinced on as a fighter since he beat a fairly-flat Jeremy Stephens.

 

[EzFlyer]

man EVERYONE is on holtzman.. i added a bunch more before it moves (it's aleady shifting a lot on bm)

 

[SBJJ]

Is morales going to be able to stop aljos takedowns? He’s better everywhere else.

I’d think that aljo will use his wrestling but he’s a bit of a flake.

I’ll take morales at -150. He should be able to outvolume aljo and I don’t see him on his back a lot in this fight

I'm a big believer in Moraes. I really think he is top 5. I still think the 30-27 RA card was the judge mixing up the 2 fighters.