UFC 221 - Rockhold vs Romero - Australia

[piglord]

i don't think quin is a great fighter but he pushes a crazy pace for 3 rounds and is high volume. that is a bad match up for ishihara to deal with who is more of a sniper. if ishi doesn't land a kill shot i think he definitely gets outworked.

 

[ill800]

Romero ko +250

Yup

 

[onC]

Draw for the following fights seems +EV wether they use new rules or not. Especially Asker-Tuivasa at 126.0

Asker-Tuivasa
Hunt-Blaydes
Li-Matthews
Brown-Maestro
Quin-Ishi

Tuivasa/Hunt/Li/Ishi all can drop their opponents in the first and then lose two rounds. Anything can happen in Brown/Kim.

 

[piglord]

Draw for the following fights seems +EV wether they use new rules or not. Especially Asker-Tuivasa at 126.0

Asker-Tuivasa
Hunt-Blaydes
Li-Matthews
Brown-Maestro
Quin-Ishi

Tuivasa/Hunt/Li/Ishi all can drop their opponents in the first and then lose two rounds. Anything can happen in Brown/Kim.

ishi/quin has the highest draw potential imo. shit, a lot of us nearly cashed huge in his last fight before dy hit that ridiculous nut shot in r3.

 

[onC]

ishi/quin has the highest draw potential imo. shit, a lot of us nearly cashed huge in his last fight before dy hit that ridiculous nut shot in r3.

I like Asker-Tuivasa the most. Tuivasa might gas horribly if he doesnt get Asker out in the first round.

 

[Sadistics]

Draw for the following fights seems +EV wether they use new rules or not. Especially Asker-Tuivasa at 126.0

Asker-Tuivasa
Hunt-Blaydes
Li-Matthews
Brown-Maestro
Quin-Ishi

Tuivasa/Hunt/Li/Ishi all can drop their opponents in the first and then lose two rounds. Anything can happen in Brown/Kim.

Formiga/Nguyen too, could see Formiga get the back and ride it out for an entire round getting a 10-8

 

[pytycrys]

Man. I feel stupid now for jumping big on Romero at 1.90 and 1.98 and Leech at 1.53... Hehe

 

[EzFlyer]

Man. I feel stupid now for jumping big on Romero at 1.90 and 1.98 and Leech at 1.53... Hehe

It happens to the best of us.

If you liked your bets you shouldn't let it bother you, though.

 

[null]

Well, now you guys have me betting draw in at least eight different fights. Let's hope Western Australia is using new rules.

 

[quincy k]

Man. I feel stupid now for jumping big on Romero at 1.90 and 1.98 and Leech at 1.53... Hehe

capping line movements is tough

i thought ksi was a great bet last weekend at close to even only to see him get bet up to +150.

 

[mkess101]

Romero ko +250

Yup

Yeah if he wins, he's knocking Luke out most likely. I like it too, then I go look and it's been bet down to +200. Lame. BUT...

Romero itd is actually +226. I can live with that, and I guess I get the bonus that on the remote chance he subs Luke I still cash. Hit this for some, and made a small play on Romero rd 3. He has a few rd 3 finishes, and +1150 is acceptable imo.

 

[Yotsuya]

Yeah maybe. Quinonez seems to be developing his wrestling and ground game at a decent pace and Ishi was a turtle against Maynard and gassed very quickly.

That was back when Ishi though, that throwing a knee is a solid way to defend a takedown. I hope he learned from that. Dy fight was kind of hard to estimate how his cardio is developing, because took three groinshots.

 

[rille31]

Is sexy bitches still at TaM?

 

[t6p]

Is sexy bitches still at TaM?

Yes.

 

[ill800]

Yeah if he wins, he's knocking Luke out most likely. I like it too, then I go look and it's been bet down to +200. Lame. BUT...

Romero itd is actually +226. I can live with that, and I guess I get the bonus that on the remote chance he subs Luke I still cash. Hit this for some, and made a small play on Romero rd 3. He has a few rd 3 finishes, and +1150 is acceptable imo.

Yea 24 extra points is nothing
Itd sounds good to me

Hit Luke rds 4 and 5. His sub line wasn’t juicy enough

 

[ill800]

Added brown by dec +220

Was hoping for better but he has been getting bet down

 

[Naterade]

I'm really liking Ben at +odds here. Formiga is no joke but I think Ben will have an advantage on the feet and is more than competent on the ground to fend off any sub attempts, Formiga always immediately tries to take the back and body triangle so I think Ben will be ready for that if Formiga gets him down.

Also if its a close back and forth fight that goes to decision (very likely) Ben is going to get the nod on cards.

 

[iGnP]

I'm really liking Ben at +odds here. Formiga is no joke but I think Ben will have an advantage on the feet and is more than competent on the ground to fend off any sub attempts, Formiga always immediately tries to take the back and body triangle so I think Ben will be ready for that if Formiga gets him down.

Also if its a close back and forth fight that goes to decision (very likely) Ben is going to get the nod on cards.

what makes you think that? he was tooled on the ground by smolka

 

[null]

what makes you think that? he was tooled on the ground by smolka

Ben's grappling has gotten a lot better. He submitted Tim Elliott in his last fight. And in the interview I heard yesterday Ben said he was training sub defense and had guys around his neck nonstop on this camp.

 

[Sadistics]

what makes you think that? he was tooled on the ground by smolka

He dominated Smolka in the early grappling exchanges. Not sure if it was exhaustion or being concussed but he fell off a cliff halfway through rd1.

Ben's grappling has gotten a lot better. He submitted Tim Elliott in his last fight. And in the interview I heard yesterday Ben said he was training sub defense and had guys around his neck nonstop on this camp.

He landed 2 flush head kicks that Elliot ducked into before getting the sub. Elliot was running on auto pilot. I do think he has solid grappling abilities though