I keep reiterating this, but I’m just not a fan of betting this card. I’m not doing any parlays on this one nor do I have any confident picks.
I’m kinda confused on the way Emeev/Mina line is. Emeev’s not gonna finish this fight and the over should really be set at o2.5 in correlation to his -200 ML. I also find value in Not Emeev ITD. I also played Mina +3.5 because you cannot feel confident judges will give Emeev 30-27s. Besides the fact, Mina is the one that’s gonna be pushing for a finish.
For the sake of breakdown — from what I see from Emeev is that his main game is clinching fighting and also slinging that right hand and not much else. He jabs here and there but he doesn’t really follow up anything behind that jab. He only throws that right hand. He reminds me of Rustam Khabilov. Again, from tape I’ve seen, he’s just a master at finding the clinch and throwing knees. He tries slows the pace down to his liking. Not much variety at all.
Mina on the other hand is a shoot-first, ask-questions later type of guy. He will lead the dance and throw wild hooks, kicks, and flying knees to force the action. He’s a 3rd degree black belt in BJJ so he doesn’t mind a wild scramble. If you end up ducking under a wild hook and take him down he’s fine with working his guard. He’s also claimed to be a Judo Black belt as well so he’s not afraid to go for his own TDs as well. He’s not a great wrestler but a very willing one.
Seeing how their style clashes, I think it could end up being a close match with some bias towards Mina. If Emeev plays his card the way he usually does, you can’t expect him to get 30-27s with a game plan revolving clinching up and containing Mina by throwing knees in Brazil against a Brazilian.
And being that Emeev only throws a right hand and maybe a couple jabs, I don’t see him he’ll keep Mina from coming at him like a madman. Judges love that shit. It’s the Diego Sanchez effect. And plus, Mina has been training at King’s MMA for this camp, you can expect him to be a lil sharper.
I’m on Mina. I think he’s going to push the action in the stand up and Emeev doesn’t throw with enough variety. He also isn’t going to be able to stay on top on Mina for long periods of time should he get TDs but I do think Emeev can win this if he’s able to fight his fight and wear Mina’s questionable gas tank down with the clinch. I rate Emeev’s clinch very highly he knows what he’s doing there.