UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

mkess101 said:
Watched **some** tape on these two. Not a lot, but some. Preliminary thoughts are that Evinger is tough as hell and probably the better technical fighter (for sure standing) but looks noticeably slower and less explosive than Ladd. When I see a noticeable difference in overall athleticism in a WMMA fight, I'm gonna almost always lean on betting the better athlete barring a HUGE disparity the other way in skills (or a line that is just unbettable). And I don't see that here. I think Ladd is gonna physically overwhelm Evinger, and has value as a small to moderate dog. I also see value on her -3.5 at +155.
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I know Ladd is jacked but her record suggest she's not overpowering. She lost grappling exchanges to Cynthia Calvillo, a 115 lber (who has been slightly overrated), and Eubanks wrestled her somewhat evenly. Eubanks is now a 125 lber.

Evinger is beating legit strong 135 lbers like Kunitskaya and Aldana.
 
turbozed said:
I know Ladd is jacked but her record suggest she's not overpowering. She lost grappling exchanges to Cynthia Calvillo, a 115 lber (who has been slightly overrated), and Eubanks wrestled her somewhat evenly. Eubanks is now a 125 lber.

Evinger is beating legit strong 135 lbers like Kunitskaya and Aldana.
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yana and aldana are basically pure strikers though.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
I was just thinking,

Volkov is synonymous with the word ‘range’ but is he really? I rewatched some of his fights and I’ve realized like 50% of the time he’s in the pocket flurrying with his chin there for the taking.

He and Lewis has the same reach. I’m picking Volkov to win but I’m thinking in the back of the my head the classic Lewis fight where he loses 90% of the time and then finds the finish once he goes for it.
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I think he's going to get cleaned out by Lewis counters. He gets too close and his defense is shit
 
mkess101 said:
For the GPP's you pretty much want 100% exposure to the ME, I can't see it any other way. If Conor wins it's gonna likely be by early KO which means a big score for a cheap price. If Khabib wins he's going to have a monster score regardless of whether he finishes or not. And he's not crazy expensive either.

I'd assume I'm not giving anything away by saying people who understand and bet MMA understand that DK essentially sets their prices only off the betting moneylines. So a guy who's -400 but likely to win a boring grindfest is the same price as a guy who's -400 but likely to finish early. They also don't charge a premium for guys in the ME, who obviously get 10 extra minutes to score points with strikes, takedowns, etc.

I cannot imagine putting together a GPP lineup for this event and not having Conor or Khabib in the lineup. I'll have exposure to both. My guess is I'll probably do 10 lineups and have 3-4 with Conor and 6-7 with Khabib.
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Conor may not score enough if he doesn’t get the r1 ko. If he’s been on his back whole rd may need multiple kd to make it up. Good chance of that mind. I’m thinking of leaving 15% neither. Hopefully get an
edge if Conor is over owned, wins and doesn’t make the winning line up. I mass enter but would prob do same as you with 10
 
Roads55 said:
wait for what exactly? khabib is getting bet more.. im surprised by how many people in here are greatly overestimating the effect the "irish money" will have.
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Yeah, I am planning to have 1u on Conor (degen action, I think the line is pretty perfect right now), and I am waiting for the Khabib money to come in. It's big money that moves the lines, and I don't see it coming in on Conor.
 
Can’t be too bad a play taking the draw at 85/1 in the main event. With 10/8 possible from both fighters. Stranger things have happened. Also if it’s anything like close going to the cards it will of been fight if the decade and they are gonna want to run it back
 
Roads55 said:
wait for what exactly? khabib is getting bet more.. im surprised by how many people in here are greatly overestimating the effect the "irish money" will have.
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Conors odds got shorter slowly but consistently in the leadup to the Mayweather fight. Still, on one of my books atleast, Sportsinteraction, Mayweathers' odds shot up on fight day as drunk bettors poured their money in. IIRC he got close to 1.50, which is just insane.

I wouldnt be suprised to see something similar happen to Khabib's odds. He opened at 1.40 as books teased odds after the bus incident. The odds have stayed flat recently, Khabib has actually become slightly more favorite in the last day or so. However, I am not underestimating the effect of the public bets after the Proper 12 is flowing and the McGregor highlights pepper the broadcast.
 
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Looking at random prop bets for entertainment sake. Khabib to land a TD inside first minute is +150. I think we know what his gameplan is...

Maybe +150 isn't enough but he'll be diving at the hips/legs early
 
Card said:
Holy smokes Tony is one strange cookie

"I remodeled my kitchen, which is awesome."

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Sounds like he’s builging a cult:
”I don’t train athlets, I train trainers. I’m a master trainer.”
”I’m gonna keep doing what I’m doing. I’m gonna keep stacking them chips and acolytes.”

Tony also said, that this time he’s coming with a strict game plan and that he’s been taking a ton of leg kicks in training.
 
thesharktank said:
Conors odds got shorter slowly but consistently in the leadup to the Mayweather fight. Still, on one of my books atleast, Sportsinteraction, Mayweathers' odds shot up on fight day as drunk bettors poured their money in. IIRC he got close to 1.50, which is just insane.

I wouldnt be suprised to see something similar happen to Khabib's odds. He opened at 1.40 as books teased odds after the bus incident. The odds have stayed flat recently, Khabib has actually become slightly more favorite in the last day or so. However, I am not underestimating the effect of the public bets after the Proper 12 is flowing and the McGregor highlights pepper the broadcast.
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may-mac is simply not comparable to this fight. he didnt get to 1.5 at any point iirc. i think he hit 1.45 after 3 rounds or so on live betting.historically speaking if you analyze the odds. the "irish money" effect is extremely overblown. for khabib to be the underdog would be by far the biggest shift on any of conors fights and against his hardest challenge after a big lay off and bad stylistic match-up, while significant interest has been displayed by people betting khabib anytime his odds drift as I have mentioned a few times earlier in the thread. outside of khabib struggling to make weight badly or an injury he simply is not going to be anywhere near an underdog.
 
Roads55 said:
may-mac is simply not comparable to this fight. he didnt get to 1.5 at any point iirc. i think he hit 1.45 after 3 rounds or so on live betting.historically speaking if you analyze the odds. the "irish money" effect is extremely overblown. for khabib to be the underdog would be by far the biggest shift on any of conors fights and against his hardest challenge after a big lay off and bad stylistic match-up, while significant interest has been displayed by people betting khabib anytime his odds drift as I have mentioned a few times earlier in the thread. outside of khabib struggling to make weight badly or an injury he simply is not going to be anywhere near an underdog.
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Mayweather never got to -200, but there was a huge pre-fight line movement. On a couple of Euro books (William Hill, Ladbrokes), Mayweather went from -450 to -350 right before the fight. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw a 20% move here too. There's been last minute McGregor action on every fight of his except for notably the Aldo fight.

A 100 pt movemnet is not likely at all. But 30 pts or so I can see. I also can see some last minute Khabib action since there are some bettors expecting a small bump for McGregor and looking for a small discount.
 
Glad people agree with the Lana breakdown. She is for sure the value bet of the night. I'm seriously thinking dropping a grand on her.

Is there anybody who thinks Khabib may pull out or miss weight?
 
Does anyone think this Conor/Khabib fight is a LOT less hyped than expected? Everyone was talking about Mayweather/McGregor. It just seems this matchup has fell flat outside of the typical MMA fans. I'm not even sure it's grabbed the casuals near as much as expected.
 
Oblivian said:
I'm not even sure it's grabbed the casuals near as much as expected.
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It hasn't, really. I work with a guy who does nothing but watch TV in his spare time and he's seen zero ads for this event even this week.

Obviously the UFC is having trouble reaching out to the casual fan which they think they can overcome by putting CM Punk on the main card and having a WMMA FLW title fight that no one asked more headline over a way better fight thats right below it yet they dont take the opinions of the people who pay for their shit every month seriously. Its frustrating to see this product implode itself like this. I'm not marketer myself so I couldn't tell you how to improve it but as a hardcore fan I can say that whatever they're doing isnt working that well and I would hate for the UFC to go away because of bad marketing.
 
Maybe McGregor really needs to establish himself as champion again after 2 years break, so UFC let's him train more and promote less as future investment.
 
Khabib / Conor Over 2.5 is my favorite bet on the card
 
Yotsuya said:
Maybe McGregor really needs to establish himself as champion again after 2 years break, so UFC let's him train more and promote less as future investment.
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I don't know. UFC nowadays doesn't seem to have much forward thinking. I do think if McGregor wins, we'll see hype kick back up though.

I think the best cash grab for the UFC was to really promote this fight and then promote Diaz/Poirier heavily. They could do the trilogy with Diaz afterwards under almost any result besides McGregor winning and Diaz losing. McGregor losing and Diaz winning or losing could still promote the trilogy. McGregor winning and Diaz winning could still promote the trilogy.
 
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