UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

[Gugabe]

100%

That doesn’t mean that Volk can’t negate Mendes’ wrestling advantage, but there’s no doubt who the better wrestler is.

I'll be pretty damned surprised if Volk wins this any way aside from Mendes' chin randomly failing him or Mendes looking totally depleted athletically. Mendes should be tiers ahead in skill and athleticism essentially everywhere important. Volkanovski just had a competitive fight with Darren Elkins in the striking and wrestling that he won due to having a power edge. I'm expecting Barboza/Hooker 'wrestlebox edition'.

If Volkanovski beats a 'prime' Mendes, I'll take him against Holloway.

Already got a few units on Mendes between -150 and -170, looking to get big on Mendes/fight to end by KO if that's at + odds.

 

[Soccer Steve]

100%

That doesn’t mean that Volk can’t negate Mendes’ wrestling advantage, but there’s no doubt who the better wrestler is.

Minimize it first, Volk doesn't go away, then negate it, Volk still there with Mendes getting tired, Volk gets momentum, hits him clean and KO. It's not that hard to see. Mendes has red flags, and isn't exactly a world-beater, but wanted to be vocal as being on the other side because most (all?) of the forum is on Chad.

OK, now I'll stop with him.

 

[Gugabe]

Minimize it first, Volk doesn't go away, then negate it, Volk still there with Mendes getting tired, Volk gets momentum, hits him clean and KO. It's not that hard to see. Mendes has red flags, and isn't exactly a world-beater, but wanted to be vocal as being on the other side because most (all?) of the forum is on Chad.

OK, now I'll stop with him.

Have we seen a cardio issue from Mendes aside from the Conor fight, which was 2 weeks, insane psychological pressure (Conor does that shit to people), a hard pace and heavy bodywork? Went 5 with Aldo fairly easily, same with Lentz.

Because I don't like him. haha

Surely there are harder punchers at 145, no? Conor doesn't count anymore I suppose.

If Chad is going in this one looking to throw down then I'd be even more wary of paying his price. Edgar KO'd him with a whiff it looked like. Chad popped right back up, wobbly maybe, but every ref will stop the fight at that point. I think you might be right that Volk will need a finish, but I think he gets it, and if he does I would not be surprised if the fight is 19-19 at that point. This seems like a pretty even match, a gauge fight to see exactly what Volk is, and I like the dog money.

IMO, shot-for-shot, Chad hits harder than McGregor. Conor's more accurate and able to chain/pressure well, but Mendes has that Hendo power. You don't seem to understand how far behind Volkanovski is essentially everywhere. I cap Mendes close to -500 here. Horrific matchup for Volkanovski.

 

[burge13]

Quite a few were on Kelleher over Jackson when this fight was originally scheduled. Odds haven't really changed from then either with Kelleher the small dog

People still like BK now?

 

[piglord]

Quite a few were on Kelleher over Jackson when this fight was originally scheduled. Odds haven't really changed from then either with Kelleher the small dog

People still like BK now?

fight goes to decision is all i like.

 

[burge13]

Have we seen a cardio issue from Mendes aside from the Conor fight, which was 2 weeks, insane psychological pressure (Conor does that shit to people), a hard pace and heavy bodywork? Went 5 with Aldo fairly easily, same with Lentz.


IMO, shot-for-shot, Chad hits harder than McGregor. Conor's more accurate and able to chain/pressure well, but Mendes has that Hendo power. You don't seem to understand how far behind Volkanovski is essentially everywhere. I cap Mendes close to -500 here. Horrific matchup for Volkanovski.

-500 is too far IMO but I'd have him between -250 to -300 though. Hopefully the aussies bet Volk up for us to get better a better number on fight night.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Fight won't go 3 round distance +165* Penn / Hall. Like this one.

 

[Gugabe]

-500 is too far IMO but I'd have him between -250 to -300 though. Hopefully the aussies bet Volk up for us to get better a better number on fight night.

I just don't see where Volkanovski's edges are aside from possibly chin/cardio. Volk did get KO'd on the Aussie regionals, and we haven't really seen him take a shot.

Fight to end ITD just opened @ +165 which is a steal. Few lines like that about

 

[Soccer Steve]

Have we seen a cardio issue from Mendes aside from the Conor fight, which was 2 weeks, insane psychological pressure (Conor does that shit to people), a hard pace and heavy bodywork? Went 5 with Aldo fairly easily, same with Lentz.

IMO, shot-for-shot, Chad hits harder than McGregor. Conor's more accurate and able to chain/pressure well, but Mendes has that Hendo power. You don't seem to understand how far behind Volkanovski is essentially everywhere. I cap Mendes close to -500 here. Horrific matchup for Volkanovski.

And at 0.5u in on his ML it shows you my lack of willingness too. You're right though, I'm probably vastly underselling Mendes. Anyone who finishes Elkins, nevermind Guida and Lamas too, can bang. But you can't know how far ahead Chad is either though, to be fair. They'll fight and we'll find out for sure, in the meantime I still see Volk as live and I'm happy to roll small on him.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

The oddsmakers’ job when setting a line isn’t to predict the winner, it’s to predict who people will bet on. They anticipate the majority of bettors to favour Jones here, and I’m sure they are correct as far as that goes. That definitely doesn’t mean that the line isn’t off, but I also don’t believe that Jones needs “magic” to put on a winning performance here. I give Gus a chance to win but not enough for me to take the shot on him yet. I personally think the line is close to being correct. If Jones money comes in and I can get Gus at +300 I’d play him though.

"I’m sure they are correct as far as that goes. That definitely doesn’t mean that the line isn’t off"
Just like how sure they were on Lee hype train? Blades comes to mind. I remember how high crazy the odds were for Blaydes and when he lost lol. I kinda i enjoyed it when Francis proved everyone wrong . James Vick vs Justin Gaethje comes to mind as well.
https://www.oddsshark.com/ufc/justin-gaethje-james-vick-betting-2018-08-25-999786


Oddmarkers always go for the hype train.
I wont be surprised if Jones loses.

 

[null]

Ilir Latifi down to -155 vs Corey Anderson now. I'll bite at that price. Anderson has gotten better but he relies a lot on his wrestling and he won't be able to easily outwrestle Latifi. He'll have more success at range if he boxes at distance with his longer reach but Latifi should be able to close range and threaten with his own wrestling, striking or even submissions. Bet Latifi at -155 to win 2u.

 

[Sadistics]

Have we seen a cardio issue from Mendes aside from the Conor fight, which was 2 weeks, insane psychological pressure (Conor does that shit to people), a hard pace and heavy bodywork? Went 5 with Aldo fairly easily, same with Lentz.

He actually gassed within the first couple minutes vs Lentz, but apparently had a sinus infection. Also Volk didn't have a close fight with Elkins, that was domination with a few near finishes.

Saying that, I'm fully on board with Mendes. Not at all worried about a Volk finish, just a slight concern with the cardio difference as Volk has an endless gastank.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Ilir Latifi down to -155 vs Corey Anderson now. I'll bite at that price. Anderson has gotten better but he relies a lot on his wrestling and he won't be able to easily outwrestle Latifi. He'll have more success at range if he boxes at distance with his longer reach but Latifi should be able to close range and threaten with his own wrestling, striking or even submissions. Bet Latifi at -155 to win 2u.

I would say what I fear most about Anderson here is his mindset, work ethic, cardio, will to win but most importantly it's him timing takedowns. He may not always have the best fight IQ but he understands the game well. This is an interesting video but aside from him talking about retiring before 36(oh and he actually talks about his reliance on wrestling), it should give Anderson backers some confidence and Latifi backers more to consider.

 

[Omni1]

Yeah. Mendes is essentially the better version of Volkanovski everywhere aside from possibly chin (Edgar KO is the only 'bad' KO loss on Mendes' record IMO, Aldo knee kills anybody and Conor was a standing TKO whilst clearly tired)

The KO loss vs Edgar is what has me concerned. Mendes has to avoid getting hit with a clean blow from Volk for 15 minutes. Not positive that he will be able to do that on the night. It was the deciding factor in not betting Mendes. I'm not betting Volk either though. This fight is a pass.

 

[MT6ix]

Anybody else watch tape on Nathaniel Wood/Andre Ewell yet?

Watching tape on both fighters. Nathaniel Wood has some good boxing and fast hands training under Brad Pickett and some nasty calf kicks. He has a good boxing guard but for some reason he gets cracked more than he should. He has a good chin and he can fight through adversity, he isn't a quitter.

Ewell is a super long southpaw especially for a bantanweight. He is going to have a huge reach advantage against Wood (76' inches to 69' inches). He throws a decent jab which he uses as a weapon and to paw at his opponents and straight left cross. Problem is he keeps his hands low and can be stationary, Wood can land but he has to get inside. If Wood throws his inside calf kicks, he is going to get countered by Ewell's straight left.

Anybody that has watched tape have a lean on this fight? Wood is going to look small in the cage and at a big reach disadvantage compared to Ewell but will have the better hands and kicks. Ewell can't slip and box anywhere near as good as Wood's last opponent Johnny Eduardo.

Line is pretty close.

 

[hawk77]

I think Corey Anderson has value at +143 on betonline. Just bet 1.25 U on it. There are enough concerns with his chin to not over-extend unit wise, but If he doesn't get finished he should win this most of the time it goes to the cards id imagine with his volume. I need to do some more tapework on what type of strikes latifi throws and if Anderson will be in danger but I trust him a lot as well. Slight confidence boost from that post fight press conference

 

[Gugabe]

He actually gassed within the first couple minutes vs Lentz, but apparently had a sinus infection. Also Volk didn't have a close fight with Elkins, that was domination with a few near finishes.

Saying that, I'm fully on board with Mendes. Not at all worried about a Volk finish, just a slight concern with the cardio difference as Volk has an endless gastank.

Elkins took R2 over Volkanovski on striking, and was pretty live aside from when Volk was rocking him with those overhand rights due to the power disparity. It didn't look like Volk was leagues ahead in overall skill. Volk definitely won, but it wasn't like he tore through Elkins. Lamas made it looked easier, Mendes got him out in like 40 seconds.

Anybody else watch tape on Nathaniel Wood/Andre Ewell yet?

Watching tape on both fighters. Nathaniel Wood has some good boxing and fast hands training under Brad Pickett and some nasty calf kicks. He has a good boxing guard but for some reason he gets cracked more than he should. He has a good chin and he can fight through adversity, he isn't a quitter.

Ewell is a super long southpaw especially for a bantanweight. He is going to have a huge reach advantage against Wood (76' inches to 69' inches). He throws a decent jab which he uses as a weapon and to paw at his opponents and straight left cross. Problem is he keeps his hands low and can be stationary, Wood can land but he has to get inside. If Wood throws his inside calf kicks, he is going to get countered by Ewell's straight left.

Anybody that has watched tape have a lean on this fight? Wood is going to look small in the cage and at a big reach disadvantage compared to Ewell but will have the better hands and kicks. Ewell can't slip and box anywhere near as good as Wood's last opponent Johnny Eduardo.

Line is pretty close.

Wood looked kinda shithouse in his debut. I like fight ends ITD @ +100 since Wood doesn't seem to play defense at all. Ewell's got some pretty-good power and cardio.

The KO loss vs Edgar is what has me concerned. Mendes has to avoid getting hit with a clean blow from Volk for 15 minutes. Not positive that he will be able to do that on the night. It was the deciding factor in not betting Mendes. I'm not betting Volk either though. This fight is a pass.

I think you're overstating Volk's power and understanding Mendes' chin if you think that Volk just needs one solid connection.

"I’m sure they are correct as far as that goes. That definitely doesn’t mean that the line isn’t off"
Just like how sure they were on Lee hype train? Blades comes to mind. I remember how high crazy the odds were for Blaydes and when he lost lol. I kinda i enjoyed it when Francis proved everyone wrong . James Vick vs Justin Gaethje comes to mind as well.
https://www.oddsshark.com/ufc/justin-gaethje-james-vick-betting-2018-08-25-999786


Oddmarkers always go for the hype train.
I wont be surprised if Jones loses.

Slap yourself a few times, please.

I was on Ngannou and Iaquinta as value propositions, but you're acting like they would both be -300's in another rematch. Ngannou hit his win condition against Blaydes by clipping him early. +200 was stupid, but I didn't see anything that told me that Ngannou had really solved the issues that were plaguing him. It's like with Oliveira-Miller. We all knew that an Oliveira win'd most likely be Oli immediately dragging him down and tapping him in a one-sided ass-raping, but that Oli had enough of a chance of not executing that there might be some value on Miller.

Likewise with Iaquinta, I put that more down to Lee putting together a... puzzling gameplan (Every time he went for the TD in the first 3 rounds he essentially teleported to back control, Iaquinta wasn't even really stopping the shots. The only one he stuffed was an extended chain-wrestling sequence in R5 against a clearly-tired Lee.), and Iaquinta having the cardio to just win via being there and being consistently aggressive.

I hit Iaquinta @ +250 since I thought his power and TDD would be more decisive. Tbh after seeing how they matched up, I'd actually be more inclined to play Lee in a rematch. His chin wasn't as bad as I expected, and Iaquinta needed a silly gameplan to take a close 48-47 off him.

 

[NonPhixion]

after re-watching Jones vs Gus I cant help but feel that there was something off with Jones that night. His whole demeanour seemed different to me, usually very confident, smiling and pumped up. but as Buffer was calling the intro he looked very nervous and the serious bags under his eyes leads me to believe he really was smashing Charlie leading up to that fight. Im gonna be told that im overthinking this but surely somebody else noticed this too. Gus closed the distance well on him, but even his movement seemed a little flat-footed. I think he's going to be well more prepared for this fight.
The big reason that the first fight was so close was because Jon couldn't take him down and so Gus pretty much matched him on the feet with his boxing skills. But I don't see this happening again, I feel like Jon is going to get those takedowns and finish him on the ground.

 

[DevilsPt2]

I think Corey Anderson has value at +143 on betonline. Just bet 1.25 U on it. There are enough concerns with his chin to not over-extend unit wise, but If he doesn't get finished he should win this most of the time it goes to the cards id imagine with his volume. I need to do some more tapework on what type of strikes latifi throws and if Anderson will be in danger but I trust him a lot as well. Slight confidence boost from that post fight press conference

I think Andersons key to victory is gong to be his takedowns. I think hes going to have to catch Latifi off guard to land the takedown though and I dont think he can control Latifi. Anderson gets a lot of takedowns because he has trouble controlling his opponents, his mat returns are usually more successful than the initial takedown attempts. You may get up but hes quick to put you back down. I'm not really concerned about Andersons volume against a guy like Latifi. Against OSP he was taking hard blows in every round. He only threw 87 strikes up to the KO because he was focused on the takedown and staying conscious. Latifi makes guys not want to throw in the same way, he will get you moving backwards a lot due to his power and make you not want to move forward due to the takedown. Take Villante for instance, he usually throw 200+ strikes over 3 rounds(Herman, Barroso, Cummins) but only threw 79 at Latifi(only 128 against Alvey). Pedro only threw 68. He'll take adv of leg and body kicks looking for the takedown making fighters hesitant to throw those as well. I think Anderson rises and falls with the takedown here and his ability to repeatedly take Latifi down. I can just about guarantee he will keep getting up if Anderson can even get him down in the first place.

 

[MT6ix]

Elkins took R2 over Volkanovski on striking, and was pretty live aside from when Volk was rocking him with those overhand rights due to the power disparity. It didn't look like Volk was leagues ahead in overall skill. Volk definitely won, but it wasn't like he tore through Elkins. Lamas made it looked easier, Mendes got him out in like 40 seconds.

Wood looked kinda shithouse in his debut. I like fight ends ITD @ +100 since Wood doesn't seem to play defense at all. Ewell's got some pretty-good power and cardio.


I think you're overstating Volk's power and understanding Mendes' chin if you think that Volk just needs one solid connection.



Slap yourself a few times, please.

I was on Ngannou and Iaquinta as value propositions, but you're acting like they would both be -300's in another rematch. Ngannou hit his win condition against Blaydes by clipping him early. +200 was stupid, but I didn't see anything that told me that Ngannou had really solved the issues that were plaguing him. It's like with Oliveira-Miller. We all knew that an Oliveira win'd most likely be Oli immediately dragging him down and tapping him in a one-sided ass-raping, but that Oli had enough of a chance of not executing that there might be some value on Miller.

Likewise with Iaquinta, I put that more down to Lee putting together a... puzzling gameplan (Every time he went for the TD in the first 3 rounds he essentially teleported to back control, Iaquinta wasn't even really stopping the shots. The only one he stuffed was an extended chain-wrestling sequence in R5 against a clearly-tired Lee.), and Iaquinta having the cardio to just win via being there and being consistently aggressive.

I hit Iaquinta @ +250 since I thought his power and TDD would be more decisive. Tbh after seeing how they matched up, I'd actually be more inclined to play Lee in a rematch. His chin wasn't as bad as I expected, and Iaquinta needed a silly gameplan to take a close 48-47 off him.

I only access to ML and over/unders with my book but I do like ITD play at +100.

I'm hoping more money comes in on Nathaniel Wood and I can get Ewell at better plus odds (around +130 or ideally +140). I can't see how Wood doesn't have problems with Ewell's length and him being a southpaw and being so hittable.

Or when they release the over/under, hopefully it's set at 2.5 rounds since they are bantamweights and it's not too juiced and bet the under.