UFC on ESPN 1 Ngannou vs Velasquez

[Omni1]

out of sheer curiosity, what do you mean by this?

He probably means being aware of the book titled "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion". Not sure though.

 

[Card]

 

[Naught2Sixty]

A lot of pants height advantages this event. Ngannou, Bruce Leeroy, Aljo, Lopez, Penne (might be a little augmented), Barao, Whitmire and I'm feeling generous so I'll give a slight pants height advantage for Holtzman plus AES.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Ngannou could win with the height advantages. Plus more ring experience. I really don't like how Cain wobbled after that punch throw at the work out.

 

[barrygood1]

My spirits are high. Eating some In & Out Burger tonight and abstaining from alcohol so got me an extra large pomegranate fruity iced boba from the local asian tea joint.
I'ma completely own it my dudes, my picks haven't been good enough and couple that with a poor hit rate and you got the makings for a serious down funk.
Though the sign of a prodigious handicapper is one who pushes on when adversity comes a knockin'.
I teased to ya'll that I have some sizzling sleeper picks that possess oodles of value.
My motto: You gotta be in it to win it!

Rabid anti-Barry lunatics are on the loose throwing shade at yours truly.
I've been dealing with this harassment since I originally started posting here way back when.
Listen up and listen real' good: If you don't think I'll end up in the green by the end of the year holler at me.
We can put up to 3 Bitcoins on the line and do it like the big boys do.
As a matter of fact, lets do this: I will donate 0.27803(฿) to a Sherdogger from this sub-forum if I don't come away with a profit on tomorrow's UFC Ngannou vs. Cain card.
The only requirements: a)have 1K+ posts b) been a member for 5+years c)been a regular poster to the sherdog betting subsection
You should know by now I don't play around and if you have the audacity to call me out then it's WW3.

Barry's Keys To Success

• If you're not running an MMA betting system then you're doing it wrong.
• Double so if you're not constantly updating and tweaking it at all times.
• The most important key to winning money is finding value & it's what separates the winners from the losers.

It's always love to my supporters who continue to flank my rear and ya'll got my back.
Slowly but surely we'll accumulate profit and over time it's gonna grow to a point where it'll make compound interest seem like a joke in comparison.

Barry's UFC Fight Night Ngannou vs. Velasquez Free Picks
https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-on-espn-1-ngannou-vs-velasquez-official-bets.3903155/

Tomorrow's celebratory profit dance gonna be this lads

Spoiler: Whip Nae Nae

- Barry

 

[Mga223]

OMFG BARRY DA GAWD STILL POSTS HERE.


I'm worried for this card.

Really like most under dogs.

Don't want to lose too much.

What could people suggest just straight up or go small for hail Mary fun bets.

Cheers lads and hi to all the og that may remember me.

God bless.

 

[piglord]

OMFG BARRY DA GAWD STILL POSTS HERE.


I'm worried for this card.

Really like most under dogs.

Don't want to lose too much.

What could people suggest just straight up or go small for hail Mary fun bets.

Cheers lads and hi to all the og that may remember me.

God bless.

personally i'm going 1u on a bunch of dogs and hope at least half hit.

 

[piglord]

if anyone is looking to fade barao after r1, ohmbet will have live bet for the early prelims.

 

[2bet]

a girl must emphasize on squats

 

[Mga223]

if anyone is looking to fade barao after r1, ohmbet will have live bet for the early prelims.

Well with how much he missed weight I don't even think he tried to cut seriously this time.

He needs that W no matter what.

 

[Mortex2]

Fellas, I got a quick question. Pretty much forum consensus is to bet Ngannou, which brings me to this one moment in time when he fought Derrick Lewis. What if that version of Ngannou shows up. Seems like he got some mental blocks against fighters that he respects. I am just throwing this out there. That is the thing that scares me off. Otherwise, I would likely be on Ngannou as well.

 

[molest]

Fellas, I got a quick question. Pretty much forum consensus is to bet Ngannou, which brings me to this one moment in time when he fought Derrick Lewis. What if that version of Ngannou shows up. Seems like he got some mental blocks against fighters that he respects. I am just throwing this out there. That is the thing that scares me off. Otherwise, I would likely be on Ngannou as well.

Lewis is an expert at not engaging, Cain can only fight going forward.

 

[molest]

Can anyone explain me why is Fili the underdog? I know his striking is a bit ugly but he is fast and has natural fighting instincts, Fury has better tecnique but he always folds like a cheap suit, Fili is just tougher and im hoping after losing that close decision to Johnson he doesnt try to point fight again as long as he makes it a fight he should win just by being tougher.

 

[zeckdo]

Can anyone explain me why is Fili the underdog? I know his striking is a bit ugly but he is fast and has natural fighting instincts, Fury has better tecnique but he always folds like a cheap suit, Fili is just tougher and im hoping after losing that close decision to Johnson he doesnt try to point fight again as long as he makes it a fight he should win just by being tougher.

Jury has better boxing and wrestling. that's why he's the favorite, but it's a very close fight. not only does Fili have good wrestling of his own, but his kicks on the feet will create some problems for Jury.

Ngannou rd 1 +275 seems crazy. that's his window to win right there and it's +275? His rd 1 prop should be the same as he ML and TKO prop.

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

Jury has better boxing and wrestling. that's why he's the favorite, but it's a very close fight. not only does Fili have good wrestling of his own, but his kicks on the feet will create some problems for Jury.

Ngannou rd 1 +275 seems crazy. that's his window to win right there and it's +275? His rd 1 prop should be the same as he ML and TKO prop.

Ngannou TKO rd 1 started at +500 at betfair (and yes, I got me sum of dat!). To me it's not as clear that +275 rd 1 is preferable to +150 ML. The odds imply that if Ngannou wins, the probability that it will come in the first round is approximately 66.5%. I agree that it might be a little low, but I don't know about crazy.

 

[zeckdo]

Ngannou TKO rd 1 started at +500 at betfair (and yes, I got me sum of dat!). To me it's not as clear that +275 rd 1 is preferable to +150 ML. The odds imply that if Ngannou wins, the probability that it will come in the first round is approximately 66.5%. I agree that it might be a little low, but I don't know about crazy.

how did you calculate that probability?

 

[zeckdo]

Some kind of sick joke that Sanders dropped from -180 to -155 overnight, I bet my 2u on him last night... who the fuck... whatever.

 

[wigglestick]

Anyone loving the barao +3.5 line -125? This guys looked pretty bad lately but hasn't got finished and I would think if sanders win it should be rare he takes every round

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

how did you calculate that probability?

Implied probability of first round win divided by the implied probability of the ML.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Anyone have any strong leans on fights not going the distance or a certain fighter winning ITD?