UFN 145 on ESPN+ 3 Blachowicz vs Santos

[GoldenWolf87]

it's just the way the styles match up man. i think hadzovic is the much more technical boxer. will post my article tomorrow i've already finish research and have my cash down.

I agree his more rounded. Decent fighter.
Reys isnt bad but during fights can get reckless with his shots. Hadzovic could pull a Dec or Ko victory as the underdog i am loving this match up.

 

[Koniradi98]

I mean who actually cares about the Czech market? You'd probably find more money in the Welsh market for MMA yet look at the match ups they gave Jack Marshman.

The czech MMA market grew quite a bit in the last few years, with XFN and Oktagon they have 2 organization who are regularly able to pull 10k-15k crowds. Both organizations just recently filled the O2 Arena (where also the UFC will hold their event) with only 1 month in between. They also have "Freak Fights" (at least XFN I believe), what also helps MMA to get some attention over there.

Not saying that the market is big enough to care for the UFC, but I think the UFC definitely wants to show presence in this market. Therefore I find it quite weird that they didn't looked more for local talent instead of signing some unkown spaniard ore filling the card with russians that can't get an US Visa.

XFN 15


Oktagon 10

 

[JohnnyNoGood]

can anyone here give me a reason on how dodson can win against yan? Dodson is a decision machine and lately seemed uninspired and unmotivated in the cage. His last fight with Jimmy Rivera was extremely frustrating as he basically did nothing the last few rounds. Yan on the other hand is a young up in coming fighter with KO power and seems super motivated. He hasn't been tested by a top contender but i just dont see any path to victory for Dodson. Yan almost seems like a lock to me at this point. Would it be even worth it to take a stab at Dodson at +235?

 

[usernamee]

Feels good to get Damir at 2.10 now that it dropped to 1.89 but as always you wonder if you should've unloaded more.


Anybody else thinking Pedersoli and Grant are fairly similar both in skillset and the level of their respective skillsets? Feel like this is close to 50/50. Pedersoli is much younger though at 25 vs Grant at 35yo. Pedersoli seems to train at Gloria Fight Center which I've never heard of vs Grant training at AKA*. Grant is the underdog here so i'm looking at him... What's y'alls thoughts?

 

[Vir_Ars]

I'd take Santos cardio over Jan's. Santos never slows despite his high power style on the other hand we've seen Jan exhausted earlier in his UFC career especially grappling. Santos style of heavy leg and body kicks will only drain Jan more as the fight goes on too especially over 5 rounds.

Dont know dude, Jan average fighttime is 12min, Thiagos is 6, and if you have practice MMA, you know that the ground game is heavy in the gastank, Jan have fight a lot in the ground and win, Thiago have been sub and KO more than Jan and He was pretty gas out in the Manuwa fight, Manuwa chin sucks and still need volume to put him away, the agresieve wild style of Thiagos is perfect for Jan to counter, Jan have a nasty Jab and a very evil uppercut, Thiago 0 defense, i see He moving forward trowing crossin rights and left and and then the Jan uppercuts touching that chin.
I love Thiago violence, but a more technical striker, with defense and nice counter game plus a granite chin is way more safe to bet with pick them odds.

 

[TrueAscension]

A couple of thoughts/questions here..

Yan Decision prop looks too good to be true. I guess that's why its down to -175.

Why is everyone so high on Damir? I taped Alvarez and he's a sub machine. He keeps his hands a bit low for my liking but a small stab on his sub line or ITD line makes sense to me. The most likely outcome in my mind is a Joel sub or a Damir TKO if the kid keeps his hands down. Fight DNGTD at + money. Okey dokey then.

I don't see Blach getting KO'd and I don't see the fight going to the judges. Leaves me with Blach ITD @ +135 and probably by submission.

Tough to want to put money on Struve since he's lost 6 of the last 9 but he seems like a pretty big step up in competition for Lima no?

Ankaleav fight is the most interesting one on the card for me. ITD as much of a safe bet as there is on the card though the juice is tough.

So my little hail mary parlay for the card:

Blach ITD
Struve ML
Yan DEC
Fish ITD
Joel/Damir DNGTD
Ank DNGTD

100 to win 4154 (I got maxed unfortunately or I'd go bigger)

 

[ill800]

can anyone here give me a reason on how dodson can win against yan? Dodson is a decision machine and lately seemed uninspired and unmotivated in the cage. His last fight with Jimmy Rivera was extremely frustrating as he basically did nothing the last few rounds. Yan on the other hand is a young up in coming fighter with KO power and seems super motivated. He hasn't been tested by a top contender but i just dont see any path to victory for Dodson. Yan almost seems like a lock to me at this point. Would it be even worth it to take a stab at Dodson at +235?

Dodson has more ko power, he’s faster, has better wrestling and better movement

The problem is his output

Feels good to get Damir at 2.10 now that it dropped to 1.89 but as always you wonder if you should've unloaded more.


Anybody else thinking Pedersoli and Grant are fairly similar both in skillset and the level of their respective skillsets? Feel like this is close to 50/50. Pedersoli is much younger though at 25 vs Grant at 35yo. Pedersoli seems to train at Gloria Fight Center which I've never heard of vs Grant training at AKA*. Grant is the underdog here so i'm looking at him... What's y'alls thoughts?

Grant can crack and I bet him as a dog

Had to bet the openers quick. I remember being frustrated last time I bet grant. I remember he had Ottow hurt in rd 1. And could’ve finished him. And I remember his output after that being very low. He ends up losing a decision in a fight he gave away

 

[Jordan3399]

Dont know dude, Jan average fighttime is 12min, Thiagos is 6, and if you have practice MMA, you know that the ground game is heavy in the gastank, Jan have fight a lot in the ground and win, Thiago have been sub and KO more than Jan and He was pretty gas out in the Manuwa fight, Manuwa chin sucks and still need volume to put him away, the agresieve wild style of Thiagos is perfect for Jan to counter, Jan have a nasty Jab and a very evil uppercut, Thiago 0 defense, i see He moving forward trowing crossin rights and left and and then the Jan uppercuts touching that chin.
I love Thiago violence, but a more technical striker, with defense and nice counter game plus a granite chin is way more safe to bet with pick them odds.

I wouldn't be concerned about fight time averages Thiago is much more a finisher and equally chinnier but when Santos has been pushed hard for 15 minutes he hasn't slowed. Jan has massively before.

Equally to say ground work is more tiring than striking is a bit misleading. It often comes down to how efficient you are with your technique hence a wrestler can wrestle 25 minutes and not gas but strike for 5 minutes and slow massively. Perfect example of that is Daley a striker gassing vs MVP trying to wrestle. But he can throw bombs all day.

The fact is Jan has slowed before, Santos hasn't. Combine that with the fact that Santos style of hard leg and body kicks has a big cumulative effect and I favour Santos to build an edge as the fight goes on. Jans first loss was a result of him getting leg kicked for 2 rounds to the point he quit on the stool between rounds, it was 7 years ago now but he showed a significant vulnerability that hasn't really been tested since.

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

I wouldn't be concerned about fight time averages Thiago is much more a finisher and equally chinnier but when Santos has been pushed hard for 15 minutes he hasn't slowed. Jan has massively before.

Equally to say ground work is more tiring than striking is a bit misleading. It often comes down to how efficient you are with your technique hence a wrestler can wrestle 25 minutes and not gas but strike for 5 minutes and slow massively. Perfect example of that is Daley a striker gassing vs MVP trying to wrestle. But he can throw bombs all day.

The fact is Jan has slowed before, Santos hasn't. Combine that with the fact that Santos style of hard leg and body kicks has a big cumulative effect and I favour Santos to build an edge as the fight goes on. Jans first loss was a result of him getting leg kicked for 2 rounds to the point he quit on the stool between rounds, it was 7 years ago now but he showed a significant vulnerability that hasn't really been tested since.

I agree with this entirely. Santos wasn't showing any signs of slowing against Anders. I'm going with Jan, but seriously considering a Santos 4, 5 or decision hedge.

 

[LiquidNuke]

All you guys talking about Yan decision need to be careful.... the only person to last the distance against Yan in his recent show of form was that Korean guy from the Korean Zombie's camp... The chin and toughness on that guy was otherworldly, and that was a career shortening beating if I've ever seen one. Those guys would rather die than lose and have zero quit in them.

TLDR - Yan is extremely dangerous, Dodson is aging and getting worse and more negative with every fight, why can't Yan catch up to him? He's got top tier foot movement and hands, with a high work rate to boot.

 

[Oblivian]

All you guys talking about Yan decision need to be careful.... the only person to last the distance against Yan in his recent show of form was that Korean guy from the Korean Zombie's camp... The chin and toughness on that guy was otherworldly, and that was a career shortening beating if I've ever seen one. Those guys would rather die than lose and have zero quit in them.

TLDR - Yan is extremely dangerous, Dodson is aging and getting worse and more negative with every fight, why can't Yan catch up to him? He's got top tier foot movement and hands, with a high work rate to boot.

I'm actually looking at Not Yan by Dec.

 

[LiquidNuke]

I'm actually looking at Not Yan by Dec.

I see Yan ITD at +310.

 

[LiquidNuke]

What are the forums thoughts on Magamed Ankalaev? He sports a so-so 50% knockout ratio but has been facing good comp from the start and in his last UFC bout his hands, and feet, looked top shelf with him obliterating dangerous striker Prachnio...

What's Klidson Farias De Abreu like? Still need to watch some tape on him.

 

[LiquidNuke]

A couple of thoughts/questions here..

Yan Decision prop looks too good to be true. I guess that's why its down to -175.

Why is everyone so high on Damir? I taped Alvarez and he's a sub machine. He keeps his hands a bit low for my liking but a small stab on his sub line or ITD line makes sense to me. The most likely outcome in my mind is a Joel sub or a Damir TKO if the kid keeps his hands down. Fight DNGTD at + money. Okey dokey then.

I don't see Blach getting KO'd and I don't see the fight going to the judges. Leaves me with Blach ITD @ +135 and probably by submission.

Tough to want to put money on Struve since he's lost 6 of the last 9 but he seems like a pretty big step up in competition for Lima no?

Ankaleav fight is the most interesting one on the card for me. ITD as much of a safe bet as there is on the card though the juice is tough.

So my little hail mary parlay for the card:

Blach ITD
Struve ML
Yan DEC
Fish ITD
Joel/Damir DNGTD
Ank DNGTD

100 to win 4154 (I got maxed unfortunately or I'd go bigger)

I have a hard time trusting Fishgold after being on him last time out and seeming him fold from pressure/strikes so quickly.

 

[piglord]

picks are up on my blog.

 

[edole]

2u on Macedo/Robertson GTD to win 2.5u

Consider this a hedge on my Macedo bet. I still favor her to win, but her wrestling could still prove to be her downfall here. I do not see Robertson stopping her though.

Macedo by decision would be the best outcome for me.

 

[ill800]

All you guys talking about Yan decision need to be careful.... the only person to last the distance against Yan in his recent show of form was that Korean guy from the Korean Zombie's camp... The chin and toughness on that guy was otherworldly, and that was a career shortening beating if I've ever seen one. Those guys would rather die than lose and have zero quit in them.

TLDR - Yan is extremely dangerous, Dodson is aging and getting worse and more negative with every fight, why can't Yan catch up to him? He's got top tier foot movement and hands, with a high work rate to boot.

When has Dodson ever been hurt or even knocked down?

I think you are overrating yans power.

Yan will not land 80% of the punches he hit the Korean dude with.

Dodson is levels above what yan has faced
Andrades defense is non existent compared to dodsons

 

[LiquidNuke]

When has Dodson ever been hurt or even knocked down?

I think you are overrating yans power.

Yan will not land 80% of the punches he hit the Korean dude with.

Dodson is levels above what yan has faced
Andrades defense is non existent compared to dodsons

Agree to disagree, I think there's a decent chance Yan gets a stoppage here.

 

[ill800]

2u on Macedo/Robertson GTD to win 2.5u

Consider this a hedge on my Macedo bet. I still favor her to win, but her wrestling could still prove to be her downfall here. I do not see Robertson stopping her though.

Macedo by decision would be the best outcome for me.

Robertson got armbared by silva in the first rd in her last fight

Macedo knocking a girl out cold with a head kick shouldn’t really be encouraging to you either

 

[Oblivian]

I see Yan ITD at +310.

Honestly, I was originally looking at Dodson. I figured he may get up to +275 or higher. It wasn't long ago where he was in a very close decision against Moraes. If it goes to decision, I think it has a good chance of being close. Yan could be as solid as we think and finish Dodson, and Dodson always has power to KO someone who gets reckless.