UFC on ESPN 2 Barboza vs Gaethje Official Bets

1u Gaethje +135
0.1u Gaethje R2 +850
0.1u Gaethje R3 +1100
0.05u Gaethje R4 +1600

2u Hermansson -120

2u Johnson -110
1u FGTD -120

2u Karolina -138
0.05u Karolina R2 KO +2000
0.05u Karolina R3 KO +3000
0.1u Waterson Sub +900

1u Craig +200

2u Moraes +150
0.05u Yusuff R3 KO +1300

0.5u Jessica "Jag" Aguilar +276

0.5u Pearson +400

2u Barzola +110

1.5u Meerschaert +225
0.2u Meerschaert Dec +1000
0.5u Fight Ends in Sub +220

2u Kenney +260

0.5u Moroz Dec +220
0.1u Moroz Sub +1000

0.1u De La Rosa Sub +1000
 
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First little bet. Thinking and waiting for better lines for my main bets.
 
2u Borg 1,65 (to close a parlay)
2u Hermansson 1,81
2u Emmett 2,05
2u Waterson 2,30
2u Moroz 2,40
2u Gaethje 2,43
2u Moraes 2,60
2u Craig 2,90
 
2u Emmett/Johnson FDNGTD +110 to win 2.2u

5u parlay - main event FDNGTD + Alex Perez to win 3u

2u Barboza by (T)KO +120 to win 2.4u
 
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  1. 3/30/2019 9:30 PM UFC Fighting 1001 Justin Gaethje* +125 vs Edson Barboza
  2. 3/30/2019 7:30 PM UFC Fighting 1401 Paul Craig* +175 vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
  3. 3/30/2019 9:00 PM MMA Props Fighting 1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance* -170 vs Hermansson / Branch goes 3 rd distance
  4. 3/30/2019 8:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 1209 Emmett wins inside distance* +318 vs Not Emmett inside distance
  5. 3/30/2019 8:00 PM MMA Props Fighting 1305 Waterson wins inside distance* +497 vs Not Waterson inside distance
  6. 3/30/2019 5:00 PM MMA Props Fighting 1909 Holland wins inside distance* -109 vs Not Holland inside distance
 
  1. 3/30/2019 9:30 PM UFC Fighting 1001 Justin Gaethje* +125 vs Edson Barboza
  2. 3/30/2019 7:30 PM UFC Fighting 1401 Paul Craig* +175 vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
  3. 3/30/2019 9:00 PM MMA Props Fighting 1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance* -170 vs Hermansson / Branch goes 3 rd distance
  4. 3/30/2019 8:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 1209 Emmett wins inside distance* +318 vs Not Emmett inside distance
  5. 3/30/2019 8:00 PM MMA Props Fighting 1305 Waterson wins inside distance* +497 vs Not Waterson inside distance
  6. 3/30/2019 5:00 PM MMA Props Fighting 1909 Holland wins inside distance* -109 vs Not Holland inside distance

How much is this for?
 
Gaethje ML - 2u for 2.25u

Meerschaert ML - 1u for 1.75u

Hermansson ML - 1u for 0.8u

Moraes ML - 1u for 1.55u

Perez ML - 2u for 1.52u*

KK ML - 0.5u for 1.19u*

B̶o̶r̶g̶ ̶M̶L̶ ̶-̶ ̶1̶u̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶0̶.̶5̶9̶u̶*̶
Kenney ML - 0.5u for 1.25u

*to finish 2-leg parlays, none busted.

In a bout that pits two of the worst fight IQs against one another, Meerschaert at 2.75 is entering into gift territory, imo. This should be at evens. Gaethje and his guaranteed style has the value (if he wrestles then it's just a bonus). If MJ gets a + beside him I'm in.
 
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I have 35 bucks on both Meerschaert and Craig, managed to get both of them at +175. Eat my ass Bovada.
 
Edson Barboza at -125 to win 2 units.
 
Craig via decision
Holland win
Borg vs Kenney not go distance
Branch not go distance

5 = 337
 
Craig @ 2.85, 4u
Not Nzechukwu by KO @ 2.05, 1.5u
Craig vs. Nzechukwu fgtd @ 4.15, 0.5u

Branch @ 2.08, 2.5u

Emmet @ 1.97, 2.5u

Moraes @ 2.45, 2.5u

And, finally, to put my money where my mouth is:
Barboza vs Gaethje fgtd @ 5, 1u
 
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Gaethje ML - 3u for 3.5u
Gaethje or Barboza POTN - $7.55 for $22.65

Hermansson ML - 2u for 1.61u

Johnson ML - 4u for 4.05u*
Emmett KO - 0.25u for 1.19u

KK ML - 0.5u for 1.19u*
KK Decision - 0.5u for 0.59u
Waterson Sub - 0.37u for 3.19u

Craig ML - 5u for 5.19u
Craig Sub - 2u for 5.25u

Moraes ML - 1u for 1.55u
Moraes +3.5 points - 1u for 0.61u

JAguilar ML - 0.25u for 0.7u
JAguilar +3.5 points - 1u for 0.71u

Pearson +3.5 points - 0.5u for 0.45u

Aguilar +3.5 points - ?

Meerschaert ML - 1.5u for 2.6u
Meerschaert Sub - 0.25u for 0.8u

B̶o̶r̶g̶ ̶M̶L̶ ̶-̶ ̶1̶u̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶0̶.̶5̶9̶u̶*̶
Kenney ML - 1u for 2.5u

Moroz Decision - 0.5u for 1.05u

Perez ML - 3u for 2.22u*
Perez Sub - 0.25u for 0.91u

*odds via 2-leg parlays, none busted.


Happy with my setup. Have high units on fights where I have high confidence and low/very low units on fights where I have less confidence and little knowledge. Sounds simple but sometimes this is tricky to achieve, because value, odds, etc. Kept props to a minimum. Didn't bust any 2-leg connector parlays to boost juiced fav's (which I said I'd stop doing but haven't).

Publicly backed Emmett and find myself 4u deep on MJ, haha.

Of my own free will decided to let Paul Craig be the fighter who will basically dictate which way my night goes. Cool.

Looking for Aguilar (vs. Barzola) on points, as well as Barboza Rd 2/3 and/or Gaethje Rd 3/4, to cap things off but gonna leave those for later.

Good luck gang.
 
4u Gaethje +130

1.25u Hermansson -120
1u Hermansson NSC -160
0.2u Hermansson DEC +450
0.05u Hermansson RD3 +1250

1.25u Johnson -105
0.25u Johnson DEC +260

1.25u Kowalkiewicz -145
0.5u Kowalkiewicz DEC +105
0.05u Kowalkiewicz RD3 +2150

0.75u Craig NSC +165

0.2u K.Aguilar KO +495
0.05u K.Aguilar RD3 +1600

0.2u De la Rosa SUB +860

0.1u Perez/Kowalkiewicz/Johnson/Hermansson/Gaethje +1452
0.05u Perez/Meerchaert/K.Aguilar/Moraes/Craig/Kowalkiewicz/Johnson/Hermansson/Gaethje +45862
 
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2 units on Gaethje @ +115
2 units on Branch @ +116
1 unit on Casey Kenney @ +260
2.18 units on Barzola @ -109
3.14 units on Alex Perez @ -314
 
2.5u Alex Perez by submission or points (Prop) -155
1u Casey Kenney + 260
1u Kevin Aguilar +100
1u Jessica Aguilar + 280
1u Sodiq Yusuff -148
1u Going the distance (Prop) -108
1u Paul Craig by submission or points (Prop) + 195
0.5u Kennedy Nzechukwu KO RD1 (Prop) +240
1u Craig vs Nze Going the distance (Prop) +350
0.5u Kennedy Nzechukwu by decision (Prop) +600
1u Karolina Kowalkiewicz by decision (Prop) + 120
0.25u Michelle Waterson by decision (Prop) + 195 (in case it becomes split city)
1u Michael Johnson by KO or points (Prop) -110
1u MJ vs Emmett Going the distance (Prop) -124
1u David Branch KO or Points (Prop) +145
1u Justin Gaethje + 110

Comm'on big money! Papa need a new pair of shoes!!
 
2 units on Gaethje @ +115
2 units on Branch @ +116
1 unit on Casey Kenney @ +260
2.18 units on Barzola @ -109
3.14 units on Alex Perez @ -314

On the exact same guys for about 60 quid spread between them.
 
Have a 5 Game parlay...

I need Duke to win tonight,

and Barboza vs Gaethe to NOT go the distance to win @ +300 oddsd
 
Gaethje ML 2u for 2.2u
Fight starts r4 2u for 3.06u

Branch ML 2u for 1.96u

Johnson ML 2u for 1.90u
FGTD 2u for 1.46u

Waterson ML 2u for 2.42u
Waterson Sub .5u for 6u

Craig ML 2u for 3.96u

Yusuff Dec 1u for 2.1u
Yusuff Sub .5u for 6.5u
FGTD 2u for 1.74u

Barzola ML 2u for 2.1u

Meerschaert ML 2u for 3.92u

Kenney ML 2u for 4.64u

Perez ML 2u for .96u
Perez Sub 1u for 3.5u

Feeling like a lot of my bets are 50/50 this week, hopefully land on the right side of the ledger.
Good luck all!
 
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