UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington - official bets

carolinagrapple

Show me your unit...
@Orange
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Oct 11, 2007
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Post em...bets, parlays and prize picks
 
Last edited:
So far

Sh free $100/$468.92
Tar Heels -148 win
Niners ml win
Colby Covington +104

Sh free $100/$206
Eagles +10.5 win
Under 57 win
Colby Covington +104

ESPN free $150/$531.81
Dallas ml win
Sf halftime/fulltime win
Minnesota +7.5 win
Colby Covington +100
 
So far

Sh free $100/$468.92
Tar Heels -148 win
Niners ml win
Colby Covington +104

Sh free $100/$206
Eagles +10.5 win
Under 57 win
Colby Covington +104

ESPN free $150/$531.81
Dallas ml win
Sf halftime/fulltime win
Minnesota +7.5 win
Colby Covington +100


Hedge!!!!!!!
 
Jacoby (-188) $73.37 to win $39.12
Menifield (+215) $39.12 to win $84.13
= $10.76 freeroll on Menifield

Gaziev (+141) $69.44 to win $97.92
Buday (-120) $83.33 to win $69.44
= $14.59 freeroll on Gaziev

Ulanbekov (-164) $65.60 to win $40.00

Ulanbekov+Pimblett+Mitchell $25.00 to win $50.83

Edwards+Pimblett+Rakhmonov $4.49 to win $12.39
 
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Kept action relatively small last card and it worked, had a nice profit. Doing similar this card.

Prizepicks:

Jason Tatum taco (NBA-won)+Fili over 40.5 sig strikes--$25 to pay $75
Jordan Binnington taco (NHL-won)+Pantoja over 2 TD's--$25 to pay $75
Austin Ekeler taco (NFL-won)+Fili over 40.5 sig strikes+Pantoja over TD's--$25 to pay $125
Kevin Durant Christmas free square (over 0.5 points)+Fili over 40.5 sig strikes--$25 to pay $75
Friday flex (protected play, $ back if it loses)--Fili over 40.5 ss+Pantoja over 2 TD's+Garbrandt over 34.5 ss+Pimblett/Ferg under 11.5 minutes fight time+Shavkat/Wonderboy under 9.75 minutes fight time+Aldana under 84.5 fantasy score--$30 to pay $750

Underdog:
Fili over 42.5 sig strikes+Leon itd+Pantoja itd--$15 to pay $157.50
Pantoja itd+Rosa sig strikes spread getting 9.5--$13 to pay $39

Stat Hero:
Menifield +89.5--$42 to pay $70 (was going to add more after looking a bit more into this, but line dropped to +79 so leaving as is)
Menifield +89.5 plus Lipski +29.5 plus Rosa +29.5--$20 to pay $70

Pissed at myself a little, I should have gone heavier on that Menifield play on SH. It's juiced at -150, but I think in reality that it's probably more like -350 or something like that as far as actual probability of it cashing.
 
Garbrandt/Pimblett/Ulanbekov
$100 to win $224

Garbrandt/Pimblett/Jacoby
$100 to win $169

Edwards/Pimblett/Pantoja
$100 to win $221
 
Hedge!!!!!!!

Kept action relatively small last card and it worked, had a nice profit. Doing similar this card.

Prizepicks:

Jason Tatum taco (NBA-won)+Fili over 40.5 sig strikes--$25 to pay $75
Jordan Binnington taco (NHL-won)+Pantoja over 2 TD's--$25 to pay $75
Austin Ekeler taco (NFL-won)+Fili over 40.5 sig strikes+Pantoja over TD's--$25 to pay $125
Kevin Durant Christmas free square (over 0.5 points)+Fili over 40.5 sig strikes--$25 to pay $75
Friday flex (protected play, $ back if it loses)--Fili over 40.5 ss+Pantoja over 2 TD's+Garbrandt over 34.5 ss+Pimblett/Ferg under 11.5 minutes fight time+Shavkat/Wonderboy under 9.75 minutes fight time+Aldana under 84.5 fantasy score--$30 to pay $750

Underdog:
Fili over 42.5 sig strikes+Leon itd+Pantoja itd--$15 to pay $157.50
Pantoja itd+Rosa sig strikes spread getting 9.5--$13 to pay $39

Stat Hero:
Menifield +89.5--$42 to pay $70 (was going to add more after looking a bit more into this, but line dropped to +79 so leaving as is)
Menifield +89.5 plus Lipski +29.5 plus Rosa +29.5--$20 to pay $70

Pissed at myself a little, I should have gone heavier on that Menifield play on SH. It's juiced at -150, but I think in reality that it's probably more like -350 or something like that as far as actual probability of it cashing.
What are the taco bets?
 
What are the taco bets?
On Tuesdsays, PP offers 3 bets throughout the day that are discounted "taco" bets. So they reduce it to make the over likely to hit. For example the Ekeler receiving prop they dropped from 26.5 to 16.5, Tatum was like 27.5 pts to 22.5, the hockey one was saves from like 26.5 to 22.5 or something. Max you can bet is $25.
 
Tagir $170 -170
Buday $75 -115
Aldana $75 -180
Lucas Al $75 +130
Pantoja sub/tko $50 -135
Lipsky $25 +150
Emmett $25 +200
Colby sub/dec $25 +170
Paddy sub $20 +200
Kelleher $10 tko/sub +250
 
£100 Colby decision +260 to win £260
£84 Pantoja sub +175 to win £147
£100 Alonzo +250 to win £250
£100 Aldana points +120 to win £120
£100 Durden +150 to win £150
£25 Casey KO +500 to win £125
£100 Shamil +140 to win £140
£100 Gaziev +140 to win £140
 
So far

Sh free $100/$468.92
Tar Heels -148 win
Niners ml win
Colby Covington +104

Sh free $100/$206
Eagles +10.5 win
Under 57 win
Colby Covington +104

ESPN free $150/$531.81
Dallas ml win
Sf halftime/fulltime win
Minnesota +7.5 win
Colby Covington +100

How much you hedging?
 
Gaziev 557 to win 1,000

Lipski 497 to win 846

Kelleher NSC 373 to win 540

Pantoja 1 TD 266 to win 120
2 TDs + 1 TD in the first round parlay 500 to win 445
Added Pre bet:

Almeida 270
Durden DEC 300
Kelleher SUB 50
Main Point deduction 93

Added LIVE:

Buday 75
Rosa 150

+1,000 = Could have been better. Profit for the month
 
Kept action relatively small last card and it worked, had a nice profit. Doing similar this card.

Prizepicks:

Jason Tatum taco (NBA-won)+Fili over 40.5 sig strikes--$25 to pay $75
Jordan Binnington taco (NHL-won)+Pantoja over 2 TD's--$25 to pay $75
Austin Ekeler taco (NFL-won)+Fili over 40.5 sig strikes+Pantoja over TD's--$25 to pay $125
Kevin Durant Christmas free square (over 0.5 points)+Fili over 40.5 sig strikes--$25 to pay $75
Friday flex (protected play, $ back if it loses)--Fili over 40.5 ss+Pantoja over 2 TD's+Garbrandt over 34.5 ss+Pimblett/Ferg under 11.5 minutes fight time+Shavkat/Wonderboy under 9.75 minutes fight time+Aldana under 84.5 fantasy score--$30 to pay $750

Underdog:
Fili over 42.5 sig strikes+Leon itd+Pantoja itd--$15 to pay $157.50
Pantoja itd+Rosa sig strikes spread getting 9.5--$13 to pay $39

Stat Hero:
Menifield +89.5--$42 to pay $70 (was going to add more after looking a bit more into this, but line dropped to +79 so leaving as is)
Menifield +89.5 plus Lipski +29.5 plus Rosa +29.5--$20 to pay $70

Pissed at myself a little, I should have gone heavier on that Menifield play on SH. It's juiced at -150, but I think in reality that it's probably more like -350 or something like that as far as actual probability of it cashing.
Prizepicks:

Jason Tatum taco (NBA-won)+Fili over 40.5 sig strikes--$25 to pay $75--Loss
Jordan Binnington taco (NHL-won)+Pantoja over 2 TD's--$25 to pay $75--Won
Austin Ekeler taco (NFL-won)+Fili over 40.5 sig strikes+Pantoja over TD's--$25 to pay $125--Loss
Kevin Durant Christmas free square (over 0.5 points)+Fili over 40.5 sig strikes--$25 to pay $75--Loss
Friday flex (protected play, $ back if it loses)--Fili over 40.5 ss+Pantoja over 2 TD's+Garbrandt over 34.5 ss+Pimblett/Ferg under 11.5 minutes fight time+Shavkat/Wonderboy under 9.75 minutes fight time+Aldana under 84.5 fantasy score--$30 to pay $750--Loss (protected, so free play)

Underdog:
Fili over 42.5 sig strikes+Leon itd+Pantoja itd--$15 to pay $157.50--Loss
Pantoja itd+Rosa sig strikes spread getting 9.5--$13 to pay $39--Loss

Stat Hero:
Menifield +89.5--$42 to pay $70 (was going to add more after looking a bit more into this, but line dropped to +79 so leaving as is)--Win
Menifield +89.5 plus Lipski +29.5 plus Rosa +29.5--$20 to pay $70--Win

+$25

Played 2 main slate DK lineups for $15 each, got 15th place in one for a $116.66 payout. Profit is profit, but I feel dumb for not hitting the Menifiled Stat Hero play harder. I need to take advantage of those soft lines better. I could've added even after the line movement and still cashed easily, but the reality is that I should have gone heavier to begin with.
 
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