UFN 154 on ESPN+ 12 Moicano vs Korean Zombie

[LeskoJohnson]

This card was very good for betting, but the market pretty much already adjusted all their lines.

Anderson Dos Santos is two takedowns away from victory and @+200 was great value (2u) @+100 or evens already IMO is about right, I capped at evens.

Andrea Lee is pretty much IMO a better, more experienced version of De La Rosa the fight will be competitive, but she should win this with not that much trouble. @-137 was great value (3u) @-2xx not so much.

Ashley Yoder sucks, he should not be trusted with your money most of the time. But I like her against Kondo, mainly bc Kondo sucks even more, and we never saw Kondo’s Tdd or ground game and Yoder for all the lack of fight IQ she has, her ground game is not that bad she fought a hard fight against Mackenzie Dern and I think she will have the advantage in this one (even tho prob winning a close/split decision bc of making bad choices throughout the fight.) @+110 I think she’s good enough for 1u, at evens you can still get her 0.5-1u is still good IMO.

Dan Ige is a spot I like a lot, he’s a way better version of Barzola striking and ground game. If Aguilar had that much trouble fighting Barzola, I think he will have a very tough fight against Ige. I can see Ige winning a close fight on the feet (losing as well) and dominating in case this goes to the ground, I usually cap my fights pre markets to avoid biases and I had Ige 60-50% vs 40-50% Aguilar. Getting him @+130 (43%) was good value since I think his margin tends to be on the bigger side, got him for 1.5u

Ariane Lipski @-159 that’s by far one of my favorite recent spots betting, since I analyzed this fight part of my handicapping is trying to figure how the market is going to open the line to have a better understanding with the estimates I use, which sizing I will be using for the play and if I will be making one. Lipski was one since I handicapped I was already in love (no pun intended on her being beautiful), I think she beats Molly everywhere, standing she is faster, more precise, have more combinations and is more effective, and I think she has a solid edge on the ground game as well. McCann had way too much trouble with Cach who shouldn’t be in the ufc at all, and Molly soon enough we will realize the same thing IMO she doesn’t belong in the ufc either. When I posted on the forum about Cach vs McCann, I said it was a matchup that the ufc hand picked to almost make sure McCann won at home picking the only fighter she prob would beat in the division. Now it’s happening the same thing, but the sides had shifted they want to give to Lipski the easiest fight possible (because she is pretty and that sells) for her to get on the winning track in the octagon and that is Molly, I think Lipski will destroy her, that’s why I got 6u on her. I cap her -500 to -600 and I think there’s still a lot of value in her at -250 I would prob still get a 3u bet on her.

My last play on the card, is probably one a lot of you guys will disagree a lot and I absolutely understand that. But I got 0.6 units on Randy Brown @+230 (30%) I think barbarena will win this fight, but I do not think he’s winning this fight 70% of the time. I think he wins like 60-65% of them, Randy Brown has a lot of athleticism and is very big if he keeps Barb at range this will be a long night for him, and he might get Barb with his back on the ground. This is one if you intended to tail, be very carefull, only tail you if you absolutely trust my opinions, bc I’m admitting this prior to the event, I might be wrong. But I have a gut feeling that this is a good spot besides all the rational, and I trust my instincts a lot, I think barb is the rightfully favorite but this will be a very very competitive fight in my view.

If you came in late don’t worry, this event will prob have some nice value props. The props of UFC 238 were insane good, I think we will see a similar one here. Good luck to everybody.

 

[Stunna77]

This is among the most amusing reasoning I've ever heard for favoring one fighter over another. ("Stable relationship so no worries about sexual vibes at the gym!")

Anywho, MDLR literally beat the 3 shittiest fighters on the entire UFC roster. Christina Marks, Rachael Ostovich, and Nadia Kassem. These fighters aren't just nowhere near UFC-caliber, they're not even Invicta-caliber. Ostovich was 2-2 in the organization with her 2 "victories" being splits and the two losses being decisive stoppages, one to Andrea Lee but another to a 1-2 opponent in her 30s. Marks was stopped by crappy Milena Dudieva in Invicta, too. Kassem is a horrendous bum who was too lazy/stupid/psychotic to make 115 pounds, woefully undersized against MDLR in addition to having zero striking or grappling skills, and garnered her record by beating literal Australian crack whores.

Somehow, defeating these 3 means MDLR is "vastly improved" and has a good ground game. It doesn't.

Hell, against Ostovich, the first 2 rounds were fairly even, with the much smaller Ostovich defending MDLR's takedown attempts and more than holding her own in the striking. Then, in the 3rd round, Ostovich simply gave up. As she always does.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement of MDLR's skill, is it?

Not only does Andrea Lee annihiliate MDLR in the striking, I wouldn't be shocked if she gets takedowns of her own or bullies MDLR in the clinch.

I honestly think Ashley Evans-Smith, who Lee brutalized in her last fight, would defeat MDLR, too.

I took 5u on Lee at -130 (and might REALLY hate myself for not going 10u), but holy shit, I think there is significant value up to -300, possibly -400.

Holy fuck Paul we agree on something! DLR by fluke sub incoming

 

[Stunna77]

This card was very good for betting, but the market pretty much already adjusted all their lines.

Anderson Dos Santos is two takedowns away from victory and @+200 was great value (2u) @+100 or evens already IMO is about right, I capped at evens.

Andrea Lee is pretty much IMO a better, more experienced version of De La Rosa the fight will be competitive, but she should win this with not that much trouble. @-137 was great value (3u) @-2xx not so much.

Ashley Yoder sucks, he should not be trusted with your money most of the time. But I like her against Kondo, mainly bc Kondo sucks even more, and we never saw Kondo’s Tdd or ground game and Yoder for all the lack of fight IQ she has, her ground game is not that bad she fought a hard fight against Mackenzie Dern and I think she will have the advantage in this one (even tho prob winning a close/split decision bc of making bad choices throughout the fight.) @+110 I think she’s good enough for 1u, at evens you can still get her 0.5-1u is still good IMO.

Dan Ige is a spot I like a lot, he’s a way better version of Barzola striking and ground game. If Aguilar had that much trouble fighting Barzola, I think he will have a very tough fight against Ige. I can see Ige winning a close fight on the feet (losing as well) and dominating in case this goes to the ground, I usually cap my fights pre markets to avoid biases and I had Ige 60-50% vs 40-50% Aguilar. Getting him @+130 (43%) was good value since I think his margin tends to be on the bigger side, got him for 1.5u

Ariane Lipski @-159 that’s by far one of my favorite recent spots betting, since I analyzed this fight part of my handicapping is trying to figure how the market is going to open the line to have a better understanding with the estimates I use, which sizing I will be using for the play and if I will be making one. Lipski was one since I handicapped I was already in love (no pun intended on her being beautiful), I think she beats Molly everywhere, standing she is faster, more precise, have more combinations and is more effective, and I think she has a solid edge on the ground game as well. McCann had way too much trouble with Cach who shouldn’t be in the ufc at all, and Molly soon enough we will realize the same thing IMO she doesn’t belong in the ufc either. When I posted on the forum about Cach vs McCann, I said it was a matchup that the ufc hand picked to almost make sure McCann won at home picking the only fighter she prob would beat in the division. Now it’s happening the same thing, but the sides had shifted they want to give to Lipski the easiest fight possible (because she is pretty and that sells) for her to get on the winning track in the octagon and that is Molly, I think Lipski will destroy her, that’s why I got 6u on her. I cap her -500 to -600 and I think there’s still a lot of value in her at -250 I would prob still get a 3u bet on her.

My last play on the card, is probably one a lot of you guys will disagree a lot and I absolutely understand that. But I got 0.6 units on Randy Brown @+230 (30%) I think barbarena will win this fight, but I do not think he’s winning this fight 70% of the time. I think he wins like 60-65% of them, Randy Brown has a lot of athleticism and is very big if he keeps Barb at range this will be a long night for him, and he might get Barb with his back on the ground. This is one if you intended to tail, be very carefull, only tail you if you absolutely trust my opinions, bc I’m admitting this prior to the event, I might be wrong. But I have a gut feeling that this is a good spot besides all the rational, and I trust my instincts a lot, I think barb is the rightfully favorite but this will be a very very competitive fight in my view.

If you came in late don’t worry, this event will prob have some nice value props. The props of UFC 238 were insane good, I think we will see a similar one here. Good luck to everybody.

Agree with the vast majority of what you wrote, appreciate the write-up. I am heavy on Barb but at -125 and would agree current line is probably a bit wide. The only other one I disagree on is Dan Ige/Aguilar. I dont think he is a better version of Barzola, they are quite different in general. Ige is pretty slow of foot, but has more power, and relies on power tds, whereas Barzola uses his quickness and reactive shots. Aguilar has very good tdd against Ige's preferred double leg, digging a deep underhook immediately, pivoting, and disengaging. Aguilar also possesses big power without having to load up, solid cardio, and a extremely long reach for the division at 73". Ige is tenacious early, but slows as the fight goes on. I like Aguilar to stuff the majority of TDs and pull away in the later rounds or possibly even land a KO shot. Should this hit the mat, Ige is also a turtle from his back, if Aguilar is ever able to scramble to top position. This is one where I misread the line and went in on Aguilar early at -150, thinking it would move toward -200. I think there is a lot of value on Aguilar at current lines.

 

[edole]

How da fook do i find archived fights on espn+ faaackkkkkkkk

 

[burge13]

I liked Barb at the opener but Brown is getting pretty disrespected at this point isnt he? Barb isn't reaching the top 10 and his best asset is toughness, which you usually only know about because he's had his ass kicked and survived...

 

[Naught2Sixty]

View attachment 597149 View attachment 597151 Let’s go raptors

 

[Deleted member 560591]

I will definitely bet Holland. He is a moron at times but he also gets too much shit online. Kevin has a phenomenal frame for 185 and he is better in every single aspect. Di Chirico is a shittier version of Vettori. He should have lost his last fight. Only reason he got the decision were the takedowns with little control.

If he panics and takes Holland down, chances are high that he gets swept or submitted. Kevin has great grappling. I didn’t like how easily Spicely triangled Di Chirico. Kevin defended very tight chokes against GM3, got out of dangerous positions and got the mount himself. Di Chirico would have died in those situations. When it comes to the striking, Holland uses his kicks and punches very well. I love that front kick + quick straight punch combo. Di Chirico has a body kick and a left overhand that he spams. Just to remind you guys, Kevin Holland TKO‘d Geoff Neal and we all know high everyone is on him. The dude has skills.

Holland has the advantage everywhere. I give Di Chirico a punchers chance and that is very low.

 

[BigNick100]

I will definitely bet Holland. He is a moron at times but he also gets too much shit online. Kevin has a phenomenal frame for 185 and he is better in every single aspect. Di Chirico is a shittier version of Vettori. He should have lost his last fight. Only reason he got the decision were the takedowns with little control.

If he panics and takes Holland down, chances are high that he gets swept or submitted. Kevin has great grappling. I didn’t like how easily Spicely triangled Di Chirico. Kevin defended very tight chokes against GM3, got out of dangerous positions and got the mount himself. Di Chirico would have died in those situations. When it comes to the striking, Holland uses his kicks and punches very well. I love that front kick + quick straight punch combo. Di Chirico has a body kick and a left overhand that he spams. Just to remind you guys, Kevin Holland TKO‘d Geoff Neal and we all know high everyone is on him. The dude has skills.

Holland has the advantage everywhere. I give Di Chirico a punchers chance and that is very low.

smh Holland is never a bet at these odds. In that fight Neal completely gassed out, and Holland poured it on late. It was more of how gassed Neal was than anything, that was Neal's first fight back in MMA after a 13 month break.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

smh Holland is never a bet at these odds. In that fight Neal completely gassed out, and Holland poured it on late. It was more of how gassed Neal was than anything, that was Neal's first fight back in MMA after a 13 month break.

Waiting for better odds dude.

I just said that he beat someone like Neal before. He is gifted and talented. Just needs to fight more composed and even if he doesn’t, this would still be a winnable fight for him. Di Chirico is really not a threat to him anywhere especially not on the ground. He had to take Marquez down to get that robbery. If he is frustrated standing against Holland and shoots, it will be a dumb mistake and if he doesn’t shoot, Holland might go for a takedown himself.

This is a step down from the GM3 fight imo.

 

[BigNick100]

Waiting for better odds dude.

I just said that he beat someone like Neal before. He is gifted and talented. Just needs to fight more composed. Di Chirico is really not a threat to him anywhere especially not on the ground. He had to take Marquez down to get that robbery. If he is frustrated standing against Holland and shoots, it will be a dumb mistake and if he doesn’t shoot, Holland might go for a takedown himself.

This is a step down from the GM3 fight imo.

I took a stab on Chirico at +235, he can wrestle his way to a dec easily here imo. Holland is someone you bet as a underdog not a favorite and definitely not a -200 at that. He isn't someone that will fight for your money, instead you will be pulling out your hair with the shit he does. It's the reason he was in close fights with GM3 and Phillips, two low caliber opponents.. Even a gassed GM3 was still getting him down. This is not a step down IMO. Chirico just needs to play it safe on the ground and hold Holland down and make this boring, Holland has no get ups and refuses to train wrestling.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

I took a stab on Chirico at +235, he can wrestle his way to a dec easily here imo. Holland is someone you bet as a underdog not a favorite and definitely not a -200 plus at that. He isn't someone that will fight for your money, instead you will be pulling out your hair with the shit he does. It's the reason he was in close fights with GM3 and Phillips, two low caliber opponents.. Even a gassed GM3 was still getting him down. This is not a step down IMO. Chirico just needs to play it safe on the ground and hold Holland down and make this boring, Holland has no get ups and refuses to train wrestling.

I took a stab, too and then cashed out after rewatching his fights.

What makes you believe he can outwrestle him ? He is italian lol. We don’t wrestle out here in Europe. He couldn’t hold Marquez down and Holland is a hell of a grappler. Spicely submitted Di Chirico in less than a minute. He looked so lost. Kevin has long limbs and flexibility.

He beat Phillips‘ ass but he is a guy who can take that ass whooping and still swing. It’s a good thing imo that we saw Holland adjust and go for takedowns instead of playing around. That GM3 fight was wild and both guys were gassed. If you watch Di Chirico vs Marquez you will see that the grappling slowed Di Chirico down significantly. I don’t see any indication that he can wrestle hard for 3 rounds against a guy who scrambles a lot. Dude is heavier than Holland and carries more muscles. He can land a takedown but Holland will be more active and turn things around.

On the feet he likes to lay back looking for the left hand + he has a massive reach disadvantage here. Holland will probably be the one moving forward or he keeps the range and lands kicks and straight punches which will look good to the judges.

Di Chirico has beaten Bambgbose and won a robbery against Marquez. I rate GM3 higher than anyone he has beaten. Yeah, Kevin is a bit of a meme fighter but he still beats this guy at least 70% of the time. It’s a good matchup for Holland to not fuck it up lol.

 

[BigNick100]

I took a stab, too and then cashed out after rewatching his fights.

What makes you believe he can outwrestle him ? He is italian lol. We don’t wrestle out here in Europe. He couldn’t hold Marquez down and Holland is a hell of a grappler. Spicely submitted Di Chirico in less than a minute. He looked so lost. Kevin has long limbs and flexibility.

He beat Phillips‘ ass but he is a guy who can take that ass whooping and still swing. It’s a good thing imo that we saw Holland adjust and go for takedowns instead of playing around. That GM3 fight was wild and both guys were gassed. If you watch Di Chirico vs Marquez you will see that the grappling slowed Di Chirico down significantly. I don’t see any indication that he can wrestle hard for 3 rounds against a guy who scrambles a lot. Dude is heavier than Holland and carries more muscles. He can land a takedown but Holland will be more active and turn things around.

On the feet he likes to lay back looking for the left hand + he has a massive reach disadvantage here. Holland will probably be the one moving forward or he keeps the range and lands kicks and straight punches which will look good to the judges.

Di Chirico has beaten Bambgbose and won a robbery against Marquez. I rate GM3 higher than anyone he has beaten. Yeah, Kevin is a bit of a meme fighter but he still beats this guy at least 70% of the time. It’s a good matchup for Holland to not fuck it up lol.

Um, it's very simple, he can out wrestle him because Holland has no wrestling and doesn't fight to get back up at all. He refuses to even train wrestling when it's his weak spot. He will easily go to the ground and just lay on his back looking for subs instead of getting back up. That Chirico and Marquez fight was grueling and had lots of clinching, grind and takedowns, Marquez is always in a dog fight and he made Chirico work to keep him down and fought to get back up each time which is taxing. Holland will just lay on his back and Chirico can rest on top. GM3 could have easily won that fight, he just went for subs and tired his hands out and was rolling around on the ground with Holland instead of just holding position and playing it safe. Holland has heart and is hard to finish, it's better for Chirico to just play it safe and ride out a dec then take any chances, which I hope he does. Once again Holland as a favorite is not a smart play imo.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

Holland should be -250 against no-one. Complete meme mess of a fighter.

Watched film on both of these guys

I’m all over Alessio at plus odds. Holland has poor fight iq bad cardio and no power in his hands.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Um, it's very simple, he can out wrestle him because Holland has no wrestling and doesn't fight to get back up at all. He refuses to even train wrestling when it's his weak spot. He will easily go to the ground and just lay on his back looking for subs instead of getting back up. That Chirico and Marquez fight was grueling and had lots of clinching, grind and takedowns, Marquez is always in a dog fight and he made Chirico work to keep him down and fought to get back up each time which is taxing. Holland will just lay on his back and Chirico can rest on top. GM3 could have easily won that fight, he just went for subs and tired his hands out and was rolling around on the ground with Holland instead of just holding position and playing it safe. Holland has heart and is hard to finish, it's better for Chirico to just play it safe and ride out a dec then take any chances, which I hope he does. Once again Holland as a favorite is not a smart play imo.

He got back up against GM3 more than once and took his back more than once. GM3‘s wrestling > Italian Goblin imo

 

[Soccer Steve]

This is a step down from the GM3 fight imo.

And if the media were judging that fight Holland lost in a landslide. Dog or pass or, like you say, wait for better odds. Wouldn't put a penny of mine on Holland though.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

And if the media were judging that fight Holland lost in a landslide. Dog or pass or, like you say, wait for better odds. Wouldn't put a penny of mine on Holland though.

It’s like the Rothwell-Ivanov fight. I watched it for the second time and changed my opinion that it was a robbery. Holland ended the first 2 rounds on top of GM3 punching him. That edged those crazy back & forth rounds imo.

 

[TrueAscension]

This card was very good for betting, but the market pretty much already adjusted all their lines.

Anderson Dos Santos is two takedowns away from victory and @+200 was great value (2u) @+100 or evens already IMO is about right, I capped at evens.

Andrea Lee is pretty much IMO a better, more experienced version of De La Rosa the fight will be competitive, but she should win this with not that much trouble. @-137 was great value (3u) @-2xx not so much.

Ashley Yoder sucks, he should not be trusted with your money most of the time. But I like her against Kondo, mainly bc Kondo sucks even more, and we never saw Kondo’s Tdd or ground game and Yoder for all the lack of fight IQ she has, her ground game is not that bad she fought a hard fight against Mackenzie Dern and I think she will have the advantage in this one (even tho prob winning a close/split decision bc of making bad choices throughout the fight.) @+110 I think she’s good enough for 1u, at evens you can still get her 0.5-1u is still good IMO.

Dan Ige is a spot I like a lot, he’s a way better version of Barzola striking and ground game. If Aguilar had that much trouble fighting Barzola, I think he will have a very tough fight against Ige. I can see Ige winning a close fight on the feet (losing as well) and dominating in case this goes to the ground, I usually cap my fights pre markets to avoid biases and I had Ige 60-50% vs 40-50% Aguilar. Getting him @+130 (43%) was good value since I think his margin tends to be on the bigger side, got him for 1.5u

Ariane Lipski @-159 that’s by far one of my favorite recent spots betting, since I analyzed this fight part of my handicapping is trying to figure how the market is going to open the line to have a better understanding with the estimates I use, which sizing I will be using for the play and if I will be making one. Lipski was one since I handicapped I was already in love (no pun intended on her being beautiful), I think she beats Molly everywhere, standing she is faster, more precise, have more combinations and is more effective, and I think she has a solid edge on the ground game as well. McCann had way too much trouble with Cach who shouldn’t be in the ufc at all, and Molly soon enough we will realize the same thing IMO she doesn’t belong in the ufc either. When I posted on the forum about Cach vs McCann, I said it was a matchup that the ufc hand picked to almost make sure McCann won at home picking the only fighter she prob would beat in the division. Now it’s happening the same thing, but the sides had shifted they want to give to Lipski the easiest fight possible (because she is pretty and that sells) for her to get on the winning track in the octagon and that is Molly, I think Lipski will destroy her, that’s why I got 6u on her. I cap her -500 to -600 and I think there’s still a lot of value in her at -250 I would prob still get a 3u bet on her.

My last play on the card, is probably one a lot of you guys will disagree a lot and I absolutely understand that. But I got 0.6 units on Randy Brown @+230 (30%) I think barbarena will win this fight, but I do not think he’s winning this fight 70% of the time. I think he wins like 60-65% of them, Randy Brown has a lot of athleticism and is very big if he keeps Barb at range this will be a long night for him, and he might get Barb with his back on the ground. This is one if you intended to tail, be very carefull, only tail you if you absolutely trust my opinions, bc I’m admitting this prior to the event, I might be wrong. But I have a gut feeling that this is a good spot besides all the rational, and I trust my instincts a lot, I think barb is the rightfully favorite but this will be a very very competitive fight in my view.

If you came in late don’t worry, this event will prob have some nice value props. The props of UFC 238 were insane good, I think we will see a similar one here. Good luck to everybody.

Probably the best post I’ve seen on these forums. I’ll be honest Ive never capped fights before markets so that was super helpful. You obviously got some tasty odds doing that.

Thanks for the tip.

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

Probably the best post I’ve seen on these forums. I’ll be honest Ive never capped fights before markets so that was super helpful. You obviously got some tasty odds doing that.

Thanks for the tip.

I agree, very helpful post Lesko! If you are sharp enough to cap successfully it would definetely seem better to cap fights before markets. Once odds are out it is damn near impossible to assess a fight neutrally, without using the odds as an anchor point.

 

[MacPherson911]

how does Rob Font beat Lineker? keep him on the end of his jab for 3 rounds? does he get it done?

 

[Wiktoruspro]

how does Rob Font beat Lineker? keep him on the end of his jab for 3 rounds? does he get it done?

Well Lineker can slow down after r1.
Short notice