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This card was very good for betting, but the market pretty much already adjusted all their lines.
Anderson Dos Santos is two takedowns away from victory and @+200 was great value (2u) @+100 or evens already IMO is about right, I capped at evens.
Andrea Lee is pretty much IMO a better, more experienced version of De La Rosa the fight will be competitive, but she should win this with not that much trouble. @-137 was great value (3u) @-2xx not so much.
Ashley Yoder sucks, he should not be trusted with your money most of the time. But I like her against Kondo, mainly bc Kondo sucks even more, and we never saw Kondo’s Tdd or ground game and Yoder for all the lack of fight IQ she has, her ground game is not that bad she fought a hard fight against Mackenzie Dern and I think she will have the advantage in this one (even tho prob winning a close/split decision bc of making bad choices throughout the fight.) @+110 I think she’s good enough for 1u, at evens you can still get her 0.5-1u is still good IMO.
Dan Ige is a spot I like a lot, he’s a way better version of Barzola striking and ground game. If Aguilar had that much trouble fighting Barzola, I think he will have a very tough fight against Ige. I can see Ige winning a close fight on the feet (losing as well) and dominating in case this goes to the ground, I usually cap my fights pre markets to avoid biases and I had Ige 60-50% vs 40-50% Aguilar. Getting him @+130 (43%) was good value since I think his margin tends to be on the bigger side, got him for 1.5u
Ariane Lipski @-159 that’s by far one of my favorite recent spots betting, since I analyzed this fight part of my handicapping is trying to figure how the market is going to open the line to have a better understanding with the estimates I use, which sizing I will be using for the play and if I will be making one. Lipski was one since I handicapped I was already in love (no pun intended on her being beautiful), I think she beats Molly everywhere, standing she is faster, more precise, have more combinations and is more effective, and I think she has a solid edge on the ground game as well. McCann had way too much trouble with Cach who shouldn’t be in the ufc at all, and Molly soon enough we will realize the same thing IMO she doesn’t belong in the ufc either. When I posted on the forum about Cach vs McCann, I said it was a matchup that the ufc hand picked to almost make sure McCann won at home picking the only fighter she prob would beat in the division. Now it’s happening the same thing, but the sides had shifted they want to give to Lipski the easiest fight possible (because she is pretty and that sells) for her to get on the winning track in the octagon and that is Molly, I think Lipski will destroy her, that’s why I got 6u on her. I cap her -500 to -600 and I think there’s still a lot of value in her at -250 I would prob still get a 3u bet on her.
My last play on the card, is probably one a lot of you guys will disagree a lot and I absolutely understand that. But I got 0.6 units on Randy Brown @+230 (30%) I think barbarena will win this fight, but I do not think he’s winning this fight 70% of the time. I think he wins like 60-65% of them, Randy Brown has a lot of athleticism and is very big if he keeps Barb at range this will be a long night for him, and he might get Barb with his back on the ground. This is one if you intended to tail, be very carefull, only tail you if you absolutely trust my opinions, bc I’m admitting this prior to the event, I might be wrong. But I have a gut feeling that this is a good spot besides all the rational, and I trust my instincts a lot, I think barb is the rightfully favorite but this will be a very very competitive fight in my view.
If you came in late don’t worry, this event will prob have some nice value props. The props of UFC 238 were insane good, I think we will see a similar one here. Good luck to everybody.
Anderson Dos Santos is two takedowns away from victory and @+200 was great value (2u) @+100 or evens already IMO is about right, I capped at evens.
Andrea Lee is pretty much IMO a better, more experienced version of De La Rosa the fight will be competitive, but she should win this with not that much trouble. @-137 was great value (3u) @-2xx not so much.
Ashley Yoder sucks, he should not be trusted with your money most of the time. But I like her against Kondo, mainly bc Kondo sucks even more, and we never saw Kondo’s Tdd or ground game and Yoder for all the lack of fight IQ she has, her ground game is not that bad she fought a hard fight against Mackenzie Dern and I think she will have the advantage in this one (even tho prob winning a close/split decision bc of making bad choices throughout the fight.) @+110 I think she’s good enough for 1u, at evens you can still get her 0.5-1u is still good IMO.
Dan Ige is a spot I like a lot, he’s a way better version of Barzola striking and ground game. If Aguilar had that much trouble fighting Barzola, I think he will have a very tough fight against Ige. I can see Ige winning a close fight on the feet (losing as well) and dominating in case this goes to the ground, I usually cap my fights pre markets to avoid biases and I had Ige 60-50% vs 40-50% Aguilar. Getting him @+130 (43%) was good value since I think his margin tends to be on the bigger side, got him for 1.5u
Ariane Lipski @-159 that’s by far one of my favorite recent spots betting, since I analyzed this fight part of my handicapping is trying to figure how the market is going to open the line to have a better understanding with the estimates I use, which sizing I will be using for the play and if I will be making one. Lipski was one since I handicapped I was already in love (no pun intended on her being beautiful), I think she beats Molly everywhere, standing she is faster, more precise, have more combinations and is more effective, and I think she has a solid edge on the ground game as well. McCann had way too much trouble with Cach who shouldn’t be in the ufc at all, and Molly soon enough we will realize the same thing IMO she doesn’t belong in the ufc either. When I posted on the forum about Cach vs McCann, I said it was a matchup that the ufc hand picked to almost make sure McCann won at home picking the only fighter she prob would beat in the division. Now it’s happening the same thing, but the sides had shifted they want to give to Lipski the easiest fight possible (because she is pretty and that sells) for her to get on the winning track in the octagon and that is Molly, I think Lipski will destroy her, that’s why I got 6u on her. I cap her -500 to -600 and I think there’s still a lot of value in her at -250 I would prob still get a 3u bet on her.
My last play on the card, is probably one a lot of you guys will disagree a lot and I absolutely understand that. But I got 0.6 units on Randy Brown @+230 (30%) I think barbarena will win this fight, but I do not think he’s winning this fight 70% of the time. I think he wins like 60-65% of them, Randy Brown has a lot of athleticism and is very big if he keeps Barb at range this will be a long night for him, and he might get Barb with his back on the ground. This is one if you intended to tail, be very carefull, only tail you if you absolutely trust my opinions, bc I’m admitting this prior to the event, I might be wrong. But I have a gut feeling that this is a good spot besides all the rational, and I trust my instincts a lot, I think barb is the rightfully favorite but this will be a very very competitive fight in my view.
If you came in late don’t worry, this event will prob have some nice value props. The props of UFC 238 were insane good, I think we will see a similar one here. Good luck to everybody.